Will a new quarterback lead to a win for Cleveland?
This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Baltimore Ravens. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
Game Analysis
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Trying to Get the Offense Started
- Another season has come and gone with Deshaun Watson being a sunk cost. Unlike last year, when the Browns had a magical season despite their quarterback situation, they are 1-6 this year, which puts them in a hole that is likely far too deep to dig out of.
- Now, we move on to Jameis Winston. There are some parallels to last season and how Joe Flacco did in this offense — can Winston somehow pull off the same feat? I believe he has a bit of a similar gunslinger mentality, meaning we’ll see less short passes, and he won’t be a quarterback who is afraid to let it rip on any given play. That should lead to more production, but it can also lead to some more interceptions.
- Cleveland gets Nick Chubb for what figures to be a full game this week, after he was on a pitch count a week ago. The Browns’ offensive line also gains Wyatt Teller back at right guard, but the team loses Jedrick Wills at left tackle, with Dawand Jones getting the start their instead. The combination of Jones, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Teller, and Jack Conklin is probably the team’s best five combo, but we know that Jones has taken a big step back compared to a year ago with his production.
- Baltimore’s secondary has been shaky this season, and injuries aren’t helping either. David Njoku had a good game last week, despite a couple of drops, and he was also instrumental in Cleveland beating the Ravens last season.
- How will Ken Dorsey calling plays impact the offense? I’m not necessarily expecting a whole new offensive system, but I hope it leads to the plays being communicated quicker, and Kevin Stefanski being able to make an impact in other ways since his head won’t be buried in a playsheet.
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images
Stopping the Ravens
- Stopping the Ravens’ offense is easier said than done After a couple of losses to begin the season, their offense has been on fire, leading them to five straight wins as Derrick Henry is tearing up defenses. Henry has been breaking the big runs each week. Since Week 2, his longs per game are 29, 29, 87, 51, 27, and 81 yards. He has 8 touchdowns on 134 carries for 873 yards (6.5 YPC). Yes, it’s true that those big plays are leading to a high YPC average but we can’t just discount those runs: he is getting them each week, and when you think of Cleveland’s defense, there have been issues with bad tackling.
- On the receiving end of things, Isaiah Likely appeared to be in store for big things when he began the season with 9 catches for 111 yards and 1 touchdown. In the six games since then, though, he has 11 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mark Andrews has been resurrected a bit more in recent weeks.
- It is much of the same Lamar Jackson who Browns fans have seen for years — the difference in the offense is Henry being a machine. It has led to Baltimore being good across the board — there is not a statistical category on offense that one can deem as a weakness.
- You can beat Baltimore in a shootout. The Ravens rank 24th defensively, with their struggles coming against the pass. They actually rank first in rushing defense, only allowing 68.4 yards per game. They are 32nd in pass defense, allowing 287.1 yards per game. A stark contrast. The Ravens have also had trouble stopping teams on third down.
Quick Hitters
- Here is what offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said about adjusting to a new quarterback, comparing it to his experience in Carolina with a former Browns quarterback:
What about just the change of losing Deshaun (Watson) for the season and having Jameis (Winston) here, what have you learned about him? What do you think he can do well in this system?
“Yeah, I mean, honestly, I think Jameis – they’re different personalities, they’re different types of players. So, Jameis obviously has got a lot of great experience in this league and done a lot of good things. And I remember a lot, going back to Carolina (Panthers), when we had Cam (Newton) and Derek Anderson (DA), and DA had to come in and play some games and played at a high level for us, but two very different players. So, it’s about being able to adjust as an offense to guys’ strengths and what they can do best and put them in position where they feel comfortable. And then go out and execute at a high level. And the guys around them know exactly what to do and how to do it so you’re not reinventing the wheel for your offense, but you’re making sure that he’s comfortable and the guys around him are comfortable, can execute at a high level.”
- And then defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz talked about trying to stop those big runs by Derrick Henry:
How much different, I know running has always been part of Baltimore’s offensive scheme, but have they adjusted much in terms of the way they’ve integrated Derrick (Henry) in with Lamar (Jackson) and how they’re using them together different than previous years?
“Yeah, I mean they’ve added some dot, pistol and some two-back runs. There’s been different times over the years that they’ve been a little bit more shotgun with the zone read and those kinds of things. But he certainly gives those guys a different dimension in the run game. And I would say it’s because of all the big plays. It’s not the three, four, five-yarders, it’s the 80-yarders and some of those things that we’ve seen on film. Derrick Henry’s a player we know, we went against him last year, and we’re going to play our very best to slow down and contain their running game.”
- Matt Wilson did a breakdown of Jameis Winston being the Browns’ new Joe Flacco.
- According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Browns are 8.5-point underdogs against the Ravens.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN.
Chris Pokorny: “I can see a scenario in which the Browns’ defense steps up to stun the Ravens’ offense, and that Cleveland’s offense gets a jolt of production with a new quarterback. However, that’s a lot of ‘ifs’ in that, and we’re in a situation now where the Browns need to prove themselves before earning respect again. Also, you have to factor in that this is probably the best team Cleveland has faced this year, and think about all of the Browns’ missed tackles, dropped passes, penalties, unforced errors, etc. Does that all magically get fixed in one week? It’s a lot to ask for, so the safe bet is on Baltimore.” Ravens 27, Browns 20
Jared Mueller: “Yes, the Browns might look more competent this week on offense. No, that does not lead to a victory unless there are huge steps on both sides of the ball. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will take advantage of Cleveland’s ultra-aggressive defense for at least 2 big plays and Baltimore’s stability will be enough to overcome a very good game from Nick Chubb and David Njoku.” Ravens 28, Browns 24
Ezweav: “Browns are terrible and there really aren’t too many reasons to be optimistic. I really hate the Ravens though so just conceding defeat doesn’t work either. Perhaps the switch at QB helps to at least convert some third downs. We do that and extend some drives, allows the defensive effort to actually matter. Also let’s have a week without something injurious on special teams. Might as well shout out to NTN in the process.” Browns 11, Ravens 5
Curtiss Brown: “The sense of entitlement I am seeing from the fans is something else, but let’s divert from that. Watson is out, Winston is so the offense might look competent this Sunday. However, head coach Kevin Stefanski giving up playcalling duties seems odd (even though many fans have been asking him to do it for the past two years when it never made sense). As much criticism Ken Dorsey gets, Buffalo’s offense efficiency dipped when he was let go, so he’s not as bad as people may claim.
Baltimore’s offense is really good, and it’s getting better every week. Quarterback Lamar Jackson and Running back Derrick Henry is a formidable duo, and wide receiver Zay Flowers has shown flashes this season. Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been bad as people think (they have played better the last two weeks) but they have to limit the explosive plays that Baltimore generates if they want a shot at winning. Defensively? Baltimore isn’t as strong as they were in recent years but its still a solid unit. Their secondary however is a weakness. Baltimore could lose this game considering how their 4th quarter woes rear it’s head at the wrong time, but at the same time it’s hard to put trust into Cleveland at this point. Close and competitive, but Baltimore is just different.” Ravens 29, Browns 23
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.