NFL Honors honored another MVP QB that the Browns ‘could have drafted’
To be very clear before we get too deep into the discussion, this is in no way a defense of the Cleveland Browns nor excusing anything they did or didn’t do. In fact, once again the failures of the Browns may end up even more highlighted.
The Thursday before the Super Bowl, NFL Honors handed out awards for the best seasons in a variety of categories. Current Cleveland DE Myles Garrett came in third in his attempt to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year but still beat out rival TJ Watt.
The main event was QB Josh Allen dethroning QB Lamar Jackson for the league’s MVP award. Many were surprised because the same voters placed Jackson ahead of Allen on the NFL’s All-Pro team.
Many around the Browns (fans and media) noticed something else. Allen, Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have all won MVP awards and could have been wearing the orange and brown uniform:
The Browns went 1-31 and somehow didn’t wind up with any of the three MVP quarterbacks who were drafted in that timespan, while the two players they took first overall both went on to request trades. Incredible franchise.
— Ben Axelrod (@BenAxelrod) February 7, 2025
Axelrod is not wrong, factually.
Let’s do a quick review:
2017 NFL draft – Patrick Mahomes
Cleveland owned the first overall selection and chose Garrett, who the entire league would have chosen in that same position. QB Mitch Trubisky was considered the top quarterback prospect in the class, leading the Chicago Bears to trade up one spot to make sure they got him.
Mahomes was drafted 10th overall after the Kansas City Chiefs traded up with the Buffalo Bills to get him. Eight other teams passed on Mahomes.
The Browns also owned the 12th overall pick but traded down to allow the Houston Texans to select QB Deshaun Watson.
2018 NFL draft – Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson
Cleveland selected QB Baker Mayfield with the top pick before adding CB Denzel Ward with the fourth pick (thanks to the trade down with the Texans the year before). Sam Darnold, Mayfield and Allen were seen as top options but Allen, much like Mahomes, was seen as a player who needed a lot of development given his accuracy issues and level of college competition.
The Bills traded up (giving up two second-round picks) from the 12th pick to move up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to select Allen at number seven.
Jackson was the fifth quarterback selected in 2018 behind Josh Rosen (10th pick), Mayfield (1st), Darnold (3rd) and Allen (7th). Almost every team passed on the chance to select the Heisman Trophy winner before the Baltimore Ravens traded up 20 spots to acquire his services despite having Super Bowl-winning QB Joe Flacco in place as their starter.
Early results
- Mahomes played one game as a rookie before taking over as a starter and being great in year two
- Mayfield started 13 games as a rookie completing 64% of his passes; had 49 TDs to 35 INTs in his first two seasons
- Allen started 11 games as a rookie completing just 53% of his passes and just 59% the following season
- Jackson played in all 16 games, starting seven, as a rookie attempting just 170 passes with 6 TDs and 3 INTs in the air but had 147 rushing attempts for 695 yards and 5 TDs
Outcome bias
The problem with Axelrod’s (and many others, so this isn’t an attack on Ben) post is that it assumes that if you placed Mahomes, Allen or Jackson in Cleveland, instead of where they landed, they would have ended up with the same kind of production and awards.
The reality is that the Browns have, since The Return, been at best an okay organization with very little development of top-shelf players. Garrett was going to be great as long as he stayed healthy, Ward and RB Nick Chubb are/were not on Garrett’s level but still had the gifts to be very good to great at their positions from the start of their careers.
Much as no one would know who Tom Brady (pick #199) was if Cleveland drafted him instead of Spergon Wynn (pick #183), the Browns selecting Mahomes, Allen or Jackson was more likely to ruin or minimize their careers:
- Mahomes wouldn’t have had Andy Reid to teach him or Alex Smith to mentor him and sit behind for a year
- Allen’s completion percentage could have short-circuited his chance to develop on the job
- Jackson would have been asked to throw the ball almost 500 times as a rookie under Hue Jackson
Nothing is certain for how things would have played out. Perhaps Mahomes, Allen or Jackson would have been even better than Mayfield. Maybe that would have led to a better replacement for Hue Jackson instead of Freddie Kitchens. (Shuddering to think one of them could have saved Hue’s job).
Maybe the three MVPs that Cleveland passed on could have been the change agent the franchise has needed for so long or, maybe, the Browns would have ruined the career of a quarterback that was destined for an MVP (and, potentially GOAT status in Mahomes’ case) career.
That is why we can’t use the current outcomes for those three quarterbacks and assume the results would have been the same in Cleveland. That bias doesn’t hold up.
What do you think would have happened if the Browns drafted Mahomes, Allen or Jackson? Share your thoughts in the comment section below