As the Browns look to the NFL draft and NFL free agency for help, what wins the NFL has changed
For some people, change is to be feared, pushed back on and avoided at all costs. For others, change just for change’s sake always sounds fun. In reality, like most things, the answer is somewhere in the middle.
In the NFL, for a very long time, there were two statements that rang true about winning:
- Defense wins championships
- You must win the turnover battle
The league has made as many changes as possible to the rules so that the first axiom is no longer accurate and, now, we have data that disproves the second.
As the Cleveland Browns prepare to revamp their team through the NFL draft and NFL free agency, the new information could be helpful in deciding what direction to go. What does the new information say? It won’t surprise you:
- Quarterback play is more important than turnovers
Now, there is some obvious overlap between turnovers and quarterbacks as they can produce the majority of them but a piece in The Athletic used some overarching data and some single season/game data to prove the point.
Playoff Teams This Year
Ten of the top 12 teams in EPA/dropback made the playoffs this year. The two that missed, the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, were either overcome with injuries (49ers) or by their horrific defense (Bengals).
Have a top-half quarterback, you are likely to make the playoffs.
Last 5 seasons
In the last five years, the top 16 teams and 18 of the top 20 in EPA/dropback all reached the playoffs, according to TruMedia.
A larger look at how QB play decides success
Individual Game
That held true last weekend when the Buffalo Bills won the turnover battle but lost to the Chiefs in the conference championship because Mahomes outplayed Josh Allen in EPA/dropback. It was one of Mahomes’ 10 best career performances, according to TruMedia’s dropback metrics.
Quotes from Coaches
From new Chicago Bears HC Ben Johnson:
“It’s clear modern football in the NFL is quarterback-driven. That is no secret,” Johnson said. “Right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio.”
From new Browns OC Tommy Rees:
“The quarterback has as much influence in a game as any position in sports,” rookie Browns offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said. “I think when you’re in a high level of efficiency offensively, that leads to wins and losses. I think the turnover margin is still a good number, but I think you see the pass efficiency number in the NFL continue to be a good indicator. And obviously, that’s a big part of playing the quarterback position.”
Patrick Mahomes
For now, it’s no surprise that most of the league is chasing the Chiefs and Mahomes. Since entering the league in 2017, Mahomes has the highest EPA/dropback of any quarterback in the NFL, according to TruMedia, in regular season and postseason games combined.
Overall, it may not be surprising that QB play is officially the top indicator, according to The Athletic, Johnson and data, but how much should it impact Cleveland and the other bad teams who also have bad dropback EPA? Obviously, using Cincinnati as an example, the rest of the team matters but getting quality quarterback performances is now the top of the list.
Do you agree with the premise from The Athletic, Johnson and the data that QB play is now more important than turnover margin? Should it impact the Browns draft/free agency plans at all?