Can the Browns continue their momentum heading into the bye?
This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Los Angeles Chargers. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
Game Analysis
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images
The Chargers’ Defensive Performances
- Week in and week out, the Browns have been facing defenses with flaws in 2024. That changes this week with the Los Angeles Chargers, as they have a defense that is allowing a league-low 13 points per game.
- They rank 8th in yards allowed, 11th in rushing yards allowed (but 25th in rushing yards allowed per play), and 9th against the pass. They are 10th in interception rate, 11th in sacks per pass attempt. Altogether, those stats make them sound decent, but not dominant, on defense.
- Digging deeper into situational things, though, they allow the fewest number of first downs per game, are 5th in third down defense, 4th in the red zone, 8th in goal to go situations.
- They’ve beaten the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, and Saints, all teams that feature (or featured at the time) below average quarterback play. The Chargers are 4-0 in those games. They’ve lost to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Arizona, three teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Still, the most points that the Chargers have allowed all season is 20 points, and that only happened once.
- Los Angeles is solid, and I think it’d be naive to think that can be walked over. However, I think there is a formula with a greater commitment to the run, and better execution in the red zone, that can get them for 23 points and a path to victory.
Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images
Ignorance is Bliss?
- We are a bit over the moon over what Jameis Winston did with the Browns’ offense last week. As Barry Shuck asked this week, are fans ready for a possible roller coaster ride as opposed to the consistency that Joe Flacco showed a year ago? We already saw it in last week’s game with all of the dropped interceptions by both teams — but let’s be honest, Winston threw a game-ending interception right to a defender that is probably picked 95% of the time, yet somehow, Baltimore dropped it. Winston then got the game-winning touchdown on the next play.
- The key is that Winston gives the Browns a chance to do something on offense, and adds a big degree of explosiveness, compared to the offense under Deshaun Watson that was beginning to struggle to even get a single field goal on the board.
- One thing to also factor in last week is that the Ravens’ secondary was really bad. The Chargers won’t make a lot of those same mistakes. Still, though, I like the formula of getting back to some more plays under center, utilizing playaction, and the anticipation throws that Winston makes. I still hated some of the Shotgun draws we tried to do with Nick Chubb last week.
- I am expecting Chubb to have his best game of the season in game number three this week. Additionally, Jerome Ford will be back, and it’ll be nice to use his burst in the change-of-pace role again, as well as his receiving ability.
Quick Hitters
- My views of Jameis Winston prior to this year couldn’t have been more wrong, as far as his character goes. I assumed he was an idiot or goof, but in just one week of hearing all the audio clips of him, he’s endearing, lovable, and a guy you want to root for. I am pumped to have him lead this offseason. I never felt even 1% of that degree of energy with Watson, and I’m sure the locker room feels the same, whether they’ll admit it or not.
- Here is what offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said about about being in the upstairs box last week and calling plays:
What does that vantage point up in the box provide you that you can’t get — I mean, obviously you can sort of see more, but for you specifically, what do you gain out of that than from them being down on the field?
“It’s a great question because it is a very different viewpoint and you see the game very differently. It’s almost like playing a video game up there. You kind of see the big picture more so than just that isolated on field view. So, the viewpoint is very different, you kind of see things unfold as it’s happening, but you rely on the coaches down on the field for kind of what’s going on down there, the feel and the vibe of the sideline. And then their input on maybe sometimes if a DB is doing one thing versus kind of how you’re seeing it. So up there you’re really looking big picture, more so than anything. So that vantage point is definitely very different than being on the field.”
- And then defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz talked about trying to get Myles Garrett back in the sack column:
I know sacks obviously aren’t everything, but it’s been four games for Myles (Garrett) without one, I think. So, what’s he doing to still disrupt opposing teams and what are maybe some of his missed opportunities?
“Well, he had a couple missed opportunities in that game. And again, I mean, is it a missed opportunity when you got a one-on-one with Lamar Jackson? I mean it is for a guy like Myles, but that’s tough duty there. I think you just go and look, people run away from him. His ability in the run game continues to impact our team and then it’s hard to hold a team that’s number one in the NFL on third downs to 20% unless you’re getting contributions out of guys like Myles. So, we just keep our eye on those things, and we want all our players to be successful and to get stats and those kinds of things. But when it’s all said and done, we’re just trying to stop the opponent and he’s helping us in a lot of ways doing that.”
- Curtiss Brown looked at three Chargers who can cause problems for Cleveland, and three things the Browns need to do for another victory.
- According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Browns are 1.5-point underdogs against the Ravens.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN.
Chris Pokorny: “I think back to last season, when the Browns’ offense thrived under Joe Flacco. And now, even though Jameis Winston only played one game, Cleveland’s offense looked great with him. I think it truly was a Deshaun Watson problem, which is why I almost throw out the Browns’ 1-6 start to the season (they are now 2-6). If Winston was playing instead during all those games, then I think we could be entering this week with a 6-2 record instead. The difference is that big, and I think that has to be taken into consideration when picking games involving Cleveland now.
The Browns’ defensive stats have been down compared to last year, but I still see the same, top-tier defense that was just hampered and frustrated by the offense previously not being able to do anything. Now, they can play with a greater degree of confidence too. The wildcard factor here is how the Chargers’ defense has been very sound and hasn’t been allowing points, but have they also faced a relatively weak group of quarterbacks? Maybe the Browns can find success where other teams haven’t. I like the Browns to continue their momentum from last week.” Browns 23, Chargers 16
Jared Mueller: “While everyone has Jameis Winston fever, like Flacco Fever last year, the Browns are still underdogs in Week 9.
I am also riding the Winston roller coaster, expecting ups and downs, but predicting a Cleveland win over Los Angeles isn’t just about him. The Chargers have to travel 3 time zones away and play at 10 AM their time on Sunday in Cleveland. That normally doesn’t go well for the traveling team.” Browns 24, Chargers 20
Ezweav: “This whole season has been like watching bizarro world. The Browns have mostly played like hot, sweaty garbage, but we’ve known it wasn’t actually a bad team (quite the opposite in fact). However as the weeks piled up many started telling themselves that the problems were way bigger than just the quarterback.
Then Famous Jameis proceeded to show the world that in fact, yeah our problem was the QB. And fixing that problem fixed everything else (which stands to reason, given how the team is constituted). Winston doesn’t need to be great, he just needs to be competent, and the rest of this system works, as we saw it work against a team literally none of us thought we had a chance against.
Doesn’t mean we won’t still have struggles but it does mean we’re going to punch the Chargers in the mouth this week.” Browns 26, Chargers 13
Curtiss Brown: “Goodbye Flacco Fever, hello Wacko for Winston (I tried don’t hate). With a functional quarterback behind center, the Browns offense looked like a regular offense. The offensive line held up in pass protection, run blocking was good and the pass catchers stepped up. Winston was an upgrade over Watson and the team is a lot better with him under center. Winston looked in control and comfortable, which was a good thing to see.
As far as this game goes, it’s crucial. Win, and you head into the bye week with some momentum with a huge Thursday night game with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The LA Chargers are a stiff test. Defensively, it might not have star studded names but defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has done a great job with this unit. Their secondary is young but they have been playing exceptional. Offensively, quarterback Justin Herbert is a top 10 quarterback in this league and when he’s locked in, he’s really good. Tight end Will Dissly has turned into a reliable option in the passing game, same goes for rookie Ladd McConkey. The team isn’t at full strength but they are capable of giving anyone problems. Cleveland could win this game but Minter’s defense might give Cleveland’s offense fits. This game might come down to the wire. I’ll take the Chargers in a close one.” Chargers 23, Browns 20
Damon Wolfe: “Both teams had their best offensive performance of the season last week. The Chargers will be a tough task but if the Browns play another complete game on both sides, I think they can pull out a tough win. Suddenly the Browns are back in on the season!” Browns 21, Chargers 16
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.