Whether Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, top NFL draft prospects will need more than talent to succeed
Depending on your interest, the month and a half between the start of NFL free agency and the NFL draft is either the best or worst of times. For some, all the details involved in the prospects, along with the time to argue/discuss what teams, especially the Cleveland Browns, should do, is fun. For others, like a friend of mine who texted me Tuesday asking if the NFL will ever move the draft earlier, it’s not so fun.
We can speculate about what the Tennessee Titans might do as Cam Ward is assumed there or we can talk about Shedeur Sanders and his potential/upside. Others will argue that DE Abdul Carter or WR/CB Travis Hunter should be drafted over one or both quarterbacks but, in the NFL of today, quarterbacks still rule the world.
The problem is that there is a long history of misses (or busts, as some would say) on first-round quarterbacks. Browns fans know their team’s history at the position (96 quarterbacks and counting) but they are not alone in seeing early picks fail to meet expectations.
Just five years ago, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones were selected in the first 15 picks. Only Lawrence is still with the team that drafted him (although Jacksonville Jaguars fans might feel like they haven’t gotten what was expected from the top overall pick) while Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones are or will be on their third teams in five years since being drafted.
Lance hasn’t found a new team.
Not all busts are for the same reason. At times, like new Cleveland QB Kenny Pickett, a player is overdrafted. Other times, a combination of issues led to a quarterback failing. Often, but not always, it is a few different things.
As some Browns fans stress about the idea of trading down with the New York Giants so they can select Sanders, it is important to note that the different variables that lead to success or failure are not just talent. In this example, Sanders could thrive or fail with the Giants, but assuming that would remain true if he had been drafted by Cleveland is a fallacy of thought.
I’ve long believed that no one would know who Tom Brady was if the Browns drafted him 16 picks earlier instead of Spergon Wynn. The legend of Patrick Mahomes may never have become a legend if the Hue Jackson (then Freddie Kitchens) coached Cleveland teams selected him instead of the Kansas City Chiefs.
After a quick conference with Mark Schofield and JP Acosta of SB Nation, here are the six other variables that can lead a quarterback to success or failure at the NFL level:
Fit
A very big but little word. Fit encompasses the player’s fit within an offensive system, his connection to the coach and, for some cities, fit within the community he is drafted. A timing and rhythm QB is more likely to struggle when asked to take snaps out of shotgun and wait for things to get open while he sits back in the pocket. A detail-oriented, demanding coach could be a bad fit for a quarterback who is used to a free-flowing, out-of-structure style of play.
Stability
When we look around the league at the best quarterbacks, we also find stability. The list is too long to mention but, for example, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have had the same head coaches since they entered the league. That combination is not true just in the AFC North but begs the question of whether the coach or quarterback is the reason for the stability.
The obvious answer is both, which means if Ward and Sanders are good, they will likely see stability at the head coaching position. Lawrence, for example, hasn’t reached his potential and will be playing for his fourth head coach (3 full-time, 1 interim) this season.
For a quarterback to find success, they need stability of systems and leadership around them. A successful quarterback often leads to keeping head coaches around, but we have a classic “chicken or the egg?” situation.
Talent Around Them
In general, it is not enough to have a very good quarterback. Young ones especially need significant talent around them. That could be a very good offensive line and run game, elite receivers, a controlling defense or a combination of those things.
Fields, for example, was let down by both his offensive line and weapons (on top of fit and instability issues in Chicago). A quarterback cannot do it on his own and young ones will struggle with bad habits trying to carry an offense on their back.
Work ethic
To be fair, some might include work ethic in talent but there are some differences.
One of the reasons many believe that Jalen Milroe will be able to overcome his deficiencies (many of which we saw from Josh Allen early in his career) is his work ethic. It helps that he, like Allen, has unique physical traits.
Players who don’t have the willingness or desire to put in the work are rarely able to sustain a level of success even if everything else around them is right. Infamously, Johnny Manziel has said he watched zero hours of film. Kyler Murray was tracked for how his play suffered when the new “Call of Duty” games came out.
A quarterback has to put the work in or his chance of being successful is close to the hours of film that Manziel watched.
Injuries
Not all injuries are the same and not all injuries are a product of where a player lands. A large number of variables, including training and nutrition staff, can play a role in how often a player is hurt, how they recover and how they prepare for the grueling schedule. Browns fans have seen injuries pile up the last few seasons, including to struggling starter Deshaun Watson.
Watson’s failures are not due to his injuries but they did not help the process. For all that he has done well, injuries continue to cloud Burrow’s success so far in the NFL.
While medical procedures have advanced significantly, injuries can still play a huge role in whether a player is successful or not at the NFL level.
Luck
Finishing off with the least predictable or quantifiable variable, luck. With so much money, time, people, science and data available, the NFL draft is still just a crapshoot overall. Looking back at that 2021 class of quarterbacks, many believed that Lawrence would be among the top five in the league within a few years, Fields the next dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Lance coming out of a small college to be the next Allen and at least one of Wilson or Jones being solid quarterbacks for their teams.
Among the many things that went wrong, including talent concerns, is luck. A few balls bouncing the wrong way hurting a quarterback’s confidence (or the coach’s confidence in the QB), a finger getting jammed against a teammate’s helmet, a disconnect between the QB and the star receiver, an offensive lineman losing a step, an early retirement, a tough early schedule, etc, can all play a piece in changing the luck for a quarterback.
Whether Ward, Sanders, Milroe, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, Kyle McCord, Will Howard or any other quarterback in this year’s draft is successful is just a guessing game. Talent plays a big role but the six variables above can also play a part. Assuming that Ward would be just as successful (or unsuccessful) with the Browns as he is with the Titans or that Sanders’ Giants success/failure would have been duplicated had he been wearing the brown and orange is just silly.
Besides talent, which variable do you think decides a quarterback’s success or failure the most? Are any of the six variables listed close to as important as talent?
Share your thoughts below