We have finally crossed the finish line in this marathon of an offseason. The first mile started with the Browns navigating free agency and finding some depth pieces, halfway through the race was the NFL draft (which still seemed way too long of way to go) and stopped for a water break in OTA’s. Then as training camp unfolded, the regular season was in arms reach.
We made it.
The start of a new year. A new season. We have Tom Brady making his debut as an announcer. America’s Game of the Week on FOX. Expectations are as high as ever. Week 1 is upon us.
We couldn’t have a better game to kick off the 2024 season in the DAWGpound, against the team that calls themselves the Dallas Cowboys. This is a matchup between teams that have been so closely aligned in recent years. Both franchises are deep in history and filled with the most passionate fans, yet they seem to find their own struggles making or winning in the playoffs. Both teams have found success in the regular season, each hoisting a star quarterback, a veteran star running back, pro bowl wide receivers along with the game’s best pash rushers and coverage corners. So, what’s holding them back? Besides a rash of injuries, inconsistencies have been a glaring issue – especially in the postseason and whoever is over last year’s playoff hangover the fastest, will win Sunday’s game.
It will be important not to follow suit the preseason trend in game 1, with the Browns not getting off to fast starts as well as being ineffective on either side of the ball in the run game. Jerome Ford and the offensive line must establish a run game to off balance the pass rush of Micah Parsons, who is arguably one of the best in the game. On the flip side, I’m not as concerned about Dallas’ rushing attack as I am about their deep vertical passing game. Let’s be real, they have two Chevelles in the backfield in Cook and Elliott, both are classics and are still drivable, but it can’t be the workhorse anymore.
Let’s look at some stats from the 2023 season, according to PFF.
For the 2023 season, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving grade for receptions between 10-19 yards over the LOS is 99.9, which is virtually perfect. His beyond 20 yards receiving grade was 98.9, again almost perfect. They also averaged almost two attempts over 20 yards to Lamb per game and completed 53% of those throws (15/28). What’s also more intriguing, is the YAC on such throws. On those 15 completions, Lamb had 424 yards and four touchdowns, with only 74 yards after catch. What does that tell me? Those throws are going deep with the average depth of target at 28.3 yards. What are the two key metrics in stopping those throws? Coverage against receivers (COV) and pass rush (PRSH) grades. For COV, the browns were 5th in the league at 90.8, and for PRSH they were 91.3 – 1st in the league (much thanks to Garrett). This is a matchup I look forward to the most, strength against strength – who wins?
Now let’s wrap up with the keys and must be “MVPs” of the game.
KEYS TO THE GAME
- Don’t be surprised if I say this every week (because I probably will), but it’s the most crucial to any team having long term success and longevity down the stretch. STAY HEALTHY
- Stop CeeDee Lamb. As mentioned earlier, limiting his action is one of the keys to winning, as it will apply pressure to their run game and alternative receiver options for Dak Prescott.
- Watson. Rhythm. Early. Deshaun Watson has not seen the playing field in quite some time, and hopefully won’t come out rusty. The run game will play an important role for his game performance, so we can leverage the play action and get the ball out early. Easy throws earlier will allow Watson to develop a rhythm.
So, who must be the offensive and defensive MVPs for the Browns to get this win?
On Offense with no Nick Chubb, Deshaun Watson must show he is the 230-million-dollar Pro Bowl quarterback he once was. He has a new weapon in Jerry Jeudy and a familiar face in Amari Cooper, both with speed and can stretch the defense. He must be our offensive MVP of the game if we want any chance of success.
On defense, I’ll look for Myles Garrett (shocker) to be the MVP on that side of the ball. The Cowboys love to pass the ball, so disrupting Dak and limiting Lamb will start with Garrett. Look for him to make an impact early and often.
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