The Cavs offense will need Mobley’s outside shot in the postseason.
The Cleveland Cavaliers‘ playoff hopes have rested on the shoulders of Evan Mobley for three straight springs now. Unlike previous years, Mobley’s offensive game is well-rounded enough to handle that burden. Taking a step up as a shooter is to thank for that.
Those improvements are due to one thing: Confidence.
“I just love his confidence right now,” head coach Kenny Atkinson said when asked about Mobley’s improvements as an outside shooter last week. “We’ve really pushed him and joked with him and really tried to empower him to shoot the ball.”
You can’t quantify confidence, but you know it when you see it. Mobley has continually shown his belief in his jumper throughout the season. That’s reflected in how his attempts per game have more than doubled from 1.2 last season to 3.2 this year while maintaining an impressive 37% mark from distance.
Mobley had been hesitant to pull the trigger in previous years. He’d often opt to drive into traffic instead of taking the three the defense willingly gave him. This usually wouldn’t go well as that meant at least a few defenders were waiting for him at the rim.
This screenshot perfectly sums up last season.
Someone with confidence in their outside shot takes this. Mobley didn’t.
On this play, all five defenders are in or near the paint, including Mobley’s, who has two feet in the paint when he catches the ball. Instead of taking the corner three, Mobley gives it up and opts for a two-man game with Max Strus.
Given that the whole defense was waiting for him inside, this didn’t work.
This all stands in stark contrast to what we’ve seen this season, specifically in the last two months, where Mobley’s three-point attempts have jumped to 4.2 per game since the beginning of March.
Now, if you give Mobley daylight, he’s going to go up with the shot. This is where the increased confidence is seen.
Mobley isn’t afraid to take threes in situations where his defender is closing out hard and has a hand in his face. Compare this screenshot with the one from earlier. This turnaround in one season is incredibly impressive.
Instead of teams actively allowing him to shoot, defenses are closing out. The Cavs now have lineups with four or five shooters that opposing defenses need to cover when he’s on the floor. That opens up lanes to the basket for others. This is part of the reason why the Cavs have converted 4.8% more of their shots at the rim with Mobley on the floor compared to when he’s been off.
Mobley will need to keep proving himself in the playoffs for teams to respect him. Los Angeles Clippers head coach Ty Lue opted to primarily guard Mobley with James Harden in their last meeting. The idea behind this was to protect Harden, who is notorious for being a poor defender, and to make Mobley beat them with his outside shot. He did so as he went 3-6 from three against the Clippers while putting up 22 points.
It’s safe to say that opponents will throw similar versions of that strategy at Mobley in the playoffs. We’ll see how he responds to it in the higher-pressure environments.
“Bigger teams are gonna pack the paint on him,” Atkinson said. “He’s gotta take [threes] for us to take that next step. It doesn’t mean we don’t want him to drive. It doesn’t mean we don’t want him to pass. Doesn’t mean we don’t need to have a good variety. But [the three ball is] really important. I think he understands that.”
It seems that Mobley does understand this. The strides he’s made as a shooter are incredibly impressive, but the playoffs are a different beast.
If the Cavs are going to get through the East like they have the skills to do so, it’ll be because of Mobley. The confidence he played with all regular season will need to carry over into the playoffs.
“His confidence level is through the roof right now,” Darius Garland said. “We really love that. … I always say that he’s a unicorn. He’s going to take us wherever we want to go.”