With the shock of the Josh Naylor trade and Carlos Santana signing now having worn off, and with a fresh new year upon us, we find ourselves with an opportunity to look both backward and forward. In doing so, we can examine what Naylor provided the Guardians over the course of the last five seasons and how it compares to Cleveland’s first baseman of both the past and future in Santana.
That is what I aim to do with this post, but before we get there, just a quick summary in case you missed the finer details of the deal. In sending away Naylor to Arizona, the Guardians received an additional early-round draft pick in this June’s Amateur Draft as well as pitcher Slade Cecconi, a potential contributor on the mound for 2025 and beyond. More to the point though, they also back-filled Naylor’s role on the team with Santana. Santana had actually been close to signing with the Mariners for more money before the Guardians’ front office contacted him about a potential return (Santana is now a third ballplayer to choose less money to be part of what is happening in Cleveland, in case you are keeping count like I am).
There’s more detail I could go into, but those are the basics to set the stage for the swap of Naylor and Santana at first base. While we very well may see Cecconi this year, the most impactful portion of this deal is quite certainly the Guardians’ replacing their everyday first baseman and clean-up hitter. Naylor had been an integral part of the team’s success in the last three seasons, regardless of his conditioning or relationship with the organization, or any other off-the-field dynamic that may be considered a motivation for his departure. Santana is a long-time, proven veteran of MLB- we know this from his previous tenure with the team- but of course, he has his own, differentiating talents. I want to do a little bit of comparing and contrasting, digging into the numbers and seeing what both the potential upsides and downsides could be of Cleveland’s change in first baseman.
As a disclaimer, I like using sample sizes that include the most recent three years when ballplayers were established, like Naylor and Santana. Such a sample allows us to mitigate any one-year wonders/anomalies while still providing recent and relevant data. If I don’t directly state a time frame in the information that follows, assume it’s a three-year sample.
Naylor Was an Every Day Player, Will Santana Be?
Anyway, let’s start at the plate, and I will start by stating the obvious. Naylor is a left-handed hitter and Santana is a switch hitter. Naylor was often maligned early in his career for not being able to hit left-handed pitching. He hit just .189 with a .540 OPS against lefties between 2020 and 2022. However, Cleveland stuck with him and over time, Naylor improved into a hitter who was passable enough to not have to platoon. He has hit .236 with a .695 OPS and wRC+ of 97 (I’m going to use this all-inclusive hitting stat a lot, so be aware that 100 is average and higher is better) between 2022 and 2024 when facing left-handers. For comparison’s sake, Naylor really earns his money against righties, having hit .279 with a .833 OPS and 130 wRC+ against them in the last three seasons.
Oddly enough, Santana is basically the inverse of Naylor. Historically, when considering the full breadth of his career, Santana is a strong hitter from both sides of the plate. But starting with the shortened 2020 season, his skills seem to have diminished against right-handed pitching. He has been a below-average hitter by wRC+ in each of the last five seasons when swinging from the left side of the plate and has only had one season with a batting average above .220 in this time.
Despite these struggles, Santana continues to thrive against left-handed pitching all the same. Over the course of the last three seasons, he has hit .273 with a .849 OPS and 138 wRC+ against lefties. Always known for his exceptional batting eye and ability to get on base, his On Base Percentage vs. lefties is also a strong .365- meaning Santana’s on-base ability against lefties matches the all-around on-base ability of All-Stars like Kyle Tucker (.362 OBP over the last three years).
So, Santana’s a shoo-in to face lefties every day. Manager Steven Vogt would need to be arrested if this wasn’t the game plan going into Opening Day. However, I think the evidence would suggest that Santana won’t only play against lefties but also against righties. Santana’s wRC+ over the last three seasons is 94, which is just an eyelash below the 97 that Naylor posted against lefties. If 97 is adequate enough to play Naylor against his weak side, then I don’t see why 94 wouldn’t be adequate as well.
The Guardians do also have Kyle Manzardo on the roster, who will certainly get reps at first base, but beyond him, this is not a team laden with a lot of offensive depth. If Cleveland is going to play its nine best players, that is often going to include both Santana and Manzardo, with one of them slated as designated hitter. Beyond Manzardo, there isn’t really another left-handed hitter to swipe DH at-bats away unless Daniel Schneemann hits like a man on fire, which to me seems far less likely than Santana just being his regular steady self.
While I’m on the topic, history also supports Santana playing a lot regardless of who the opposing pitcher is because he has been an everyday player throughout his career. Santana played in every game of the 60-game 2020 season. In every other year of his career dating back to 2011, he’s never played in less than 131 games. Only once has he played in less than 140. This includes his seasons as a catcher. That’s an impressive level of durability and has to be a vote of confidence for his ability to stave off father time at 39 years old.
By comparison, 2024 was the only season of Naylor’s career where he played more than 131 games. Maybe Santana gets a little more rest this season because of Manzardo, a want to preserve his now 39-year-old body, and the ability to give some of his vs. LHP at-bats to Jhonkensy Noel, but I would expect to see a lot of him.
How do Naylor and Santana’s Batting Profiles Compare?
Outside of the platoon split juxtaposition between Naylor and Santana, the pair have other large contrasts in their offensive game. Most noticeably, Naylor is admittedly more of a power hitter than Santana, slugging .465 over the course of the last three seasons in comparison to Santana’s .411. While Naylor has just twelve more extra-base hits than Santana over the course of the last three seasons, that is largely a function of the fact that Santana was on the field more often. Naylor has averaged 33 doubles and 26 home runs per 150 games since 2022. Meanwhile, Santana has averaged 27 doubles and 23 homers. The difference isn’t drastic, but there is a little more thump in Naylor’s bat compared to Santana’s. This comparison is further supported by the Statcast data, which shows that based on the quality of contact, Naylor’s expected slugging is higher than Santana’s at nearly the same rate as the real-life data.
Interestingly, the batting average is also in Naylor’s favor. After being a .308 hitter in 2023, 2024 was a down season for Naylor in terms of batting average. This can be attributed to Naylor following the Cleveland development staff’s aspirations for wanting to do more damage at the plate this past season. That is to say, Naylor made an adjustment that played a role in his diminished batting average. But overall, over the course of the last three seasons, Naylor has hit .267 to Santana’s .228. However, I do think there is more to this story though than just comparing two numbers.
It is yet to be seen which version of Naylor will show up in Arizona. I do think it is important to acknowledge that the fewer base hits that Naylor achieved in 2024 actually hurt his overall numbers. His slugging and wRC+ were actually down in 2024, meaning the version of him that hit .308 was the better version (all the old-timers are saying “No kidding, Sherlock!” right now). Meanwhile, Santana’s numbers are pulled downward by a rough 2022 campaign that saw him hit just .202. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (or BABIP) that season was just .209, which was the worst of his career and nearly 50 points below his career average. This suggests that he hit a lot of at-him balls and generally had bad luck at the plate that season. To this point, while nearly 40 points separate Naylor and Santana’s real-life result batting averages over the last three seasons, the difference is nearly cut in half when looking at their expected results based on their quality of contact. While Santana hit .228, his quality of contact puts him at an expected batting average of .246. At the same time, Naylor had neither good nor bad luck over the last three seasons. His expected batting average was just one point higher, at .268.
What has made Santana the hitter he’s been throughout his career though is his eye and plate discipline, and this is where he shines in comparison to Naylor. Naylor’s walk rate is 7.9%, which is slightly below average (8.3%). Said another way, Naylor draws a walk once every three games- despite the fact that he’s never really had much lineup protection behind him in Cleveland that would force pitchers to be aggressive in the strike zone with him.
Comparatively, Santana’s walk rate is 11.7% (or about once every other game) which is still in the top 25 among all batters with 1000 plate appearances in the last three seasons (and higher than say, Mookie Betts), and despite his power decreasing in his later years. While Naylor’s batting average stakes him to a natural advantage in comparison to on-base percentage, Santana’s walk rate closes the gap. Ultimately, Naylor still has a higher on base over the last three seasons- .330 vs. .321- but when Santana’s poor batted ball luck is taken into consideration, this reverses. If Santana hit as well as his quality of contact deserved, he would have the higher on-base percentage of the two players- .335 vs. .324.
Hitting Summary
Bringing it all together, I think losing Naylor’s power may have an out-sized impact because of the makeup of this Guardians’ team. Naylor was Cleveland’s undisputed clean-up hitter and without him available, the team doesn’t have much in the way of replacements. Santana and Manzardo are likely going to be thrust into positions where they are going to be depended on to be run producers in the middle of the order. It is yet to be seen (though it is fair to feel good about) if Manzardo can rise to the challenge. Evidence suggests Santana will be fighting a little above his weight class hitting in the clean-up spot at this point in his career. On a different team with other power threats, this deficiency might not stick out as much. I think it has the possibility to be a glaring weakness of the Guards, unfortunately.
At the same time, Santana isn’t a bad hitter. He still takes walks really well and his batting average has been stunted by some bad luck. His overall wRC+ over the last three seasons is a perfectly adequate 106. He was an even better 114 last season and I think it is likely he will be somewhere between those two numbers this season. But, Naylor’s is 121 over the same time frame. Given how much the Guardians depended on Naylor in the middle of their order, I feel like they could really miss those extra 10 or so percentage points of production.
What About Fielding?
Of course, there is more to baseball than just hitting though. Perhaps Santana could make up for that lost offensive production elsewhere, namely in the field. Regardless of what metrics you use (including the eye test), Santana is noticeably a better first baseman than Naylor. He was the most valuable fielding first baseman in the sport in 2024, which in large part supported his case for winning the American League Gold Glove Award at the position. In total over the last three seasons, he has been worth 16 Statcast Fielding Runs at first base. By comparison, Naylor has been worth seven Fielding Runs over the same time frame. He was essentially an average first baseman in 2024.
What I find fascinating is that the guys surrounding Naylor on last season’s leader-board are what I would categorize as “sure-handed older guys that have probably lost a step”: Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. I mention that to say, those guys are able to make plays with their hands, but aren’t necessarily at a part of their career where they are using their athletic ability to make exemplary plays. That’s the kind of fielder Naylor is at his best right now.
One other metric to check is The Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved, which is even more heavily in Santana’s favor. Over the course of the last three seasons, Santana has been the third-best first baseman in all of baseball, according to this statistic that considers range, errors and double-play ability. His defense has been worth 23 more runs than the average first baseman over that time. Defensive Runs Saved isn’t nearly as kind to Naylor. There are 39 first basemen who have logged 1000 innings at first base in the last three seasons. Naylor ranks 30th among them in Defensive Runs Saved. He has been worth six fewer runs than the average first baseman.
Whether you believe Statcast or The Fielding Bible or your own eyeballs, there is a sizable chasm between these two ballplayers in the field, it is just a matter of to what extent. No matter what metric you choose, Santana has turned himself into a top-of-his-class first baseman, while Naylor is somewhere between average and poor. I would just split the difference and call him below average.
How an Upgrade At First Base Changes the Outlook at Second Base
Additionally, it is very easy for fans to consider all baseball decisions in a vacuum, but often they are interconnected. For years fans questioned why Andres Gimenez was pulled away from his natural position of shortstop to play second base for the Guardians, even when the Guardians had a weaker fielding shortstop like Amed Rosario. I have never been more confident than now that the reason why Gimenez played second base instead of short was to protect against Naylor’s lack of range.
With how transactions have transpired this winter, it seems clear to me that the Guardians considered Naylor more playable in the field with a world-class second baseman playing next to him. When Gimenez was dealt, I think they no longer saw Naylor as viable. Having a strong defensive first baseman in Santana now makes them less beholden to having to make the same concessions with the second base position moving forward. To that point, while he did not sign with the Guardians, reports suggest the team was interested in bringing in offense-first-second baseman Gleyber Torres before he signed with the Tigers. If Naylor was still at first, I doubt the Guardians’ interest would have been the same.
Now, does that defensive boost make up for the decrease in offensive production that the Guardians will get when replacing Naylor with Santana? I can’t really say for sure. Santana will definitely save more runs in the field and perhaps his existence gives Cleveland permission to find more offensive production out of their second baseman (they need to find such a second baseman of course, but perhaps minor league prospect Juan Brito is that guy?). While piecing together all of the elements of their on-field production, Naylor has been worth 6.8 WAR over the last three seasons while Santana was worth 5.4, but Santana’s exemplary defense last year actually made him the higher WAR player last season.
I am personally more comfortable saying that the ripple effects caused by Santana’s defense make for a really interesting and creative theory and I’m intrigued to see how it plays out, but ultimately, I think his defense shrinks the gap but doesn’t entirely close it.
Clubhouse Chemistry and Leadership Matters
There is one more element here, which is the leadership aspect of both players. We have seen in recent seasons how clubhouse chemistry can have an effect on wins and losses and the Guardians have embraced this notion. It is among the reasons why they continue to employ Austin Hedges and continue to employ world-class field managers. There is evidence of their recent success to support them in their theory.
Santana has grown into a strong clubhouse presence over the course of his career. He is sure to be a great elder statesman for this team, which has been the youngest ball club in baseball for three years running and will once again be flush with young players. Being Latino, Santana could particularly be a great mentor for guys like Noel, Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martinez.
In my last article, I speculated on how Naylor’s relationship with the organization may have soured. I am not going to do that again. In short, my perception is that Naylor was an important part of the clubhouse and a fiery guy. I just think that maybe sometimes that fire would get overbearing. We don’t really know what happened behind the clubhouse doors. At minimum, the Guardians aren’t losing any leadership by swapping in Santana for Naylor.
Let’s Bring It Home, In Summary:
All told, there is a lot that goes into changing a Major League roster. In making the conscious decision to trade away Josh Naylor and sign Carlos Santana, the Guardians did admittedly create a hole in the middle of their batting order. At this stage of their respective careers, Santana is not the power threat that Naylor is. However, if he hits his potential and continues his reputation as one of the best batting eyes in all of baseball, he should contribute offensively while being a significant upgrade in the field. He could be enough of an upgrade in the field to allow Cleveland to take a risk with a young hitter at second base. And regardless of production level, Santana provides another source of clubhouse leadership.
So, will this decision to insert Santana and trade Naylor work out in the Guardians’ favor? They definitely seem to think so. Santana and Naylor will make essentially the same amount of money in 2025 while neither have financial commitments beyond this season. Cleveland’s front office didn’t make this change to save money. They made it because they think it will genuinely make their ball club better. I can squint my eyes and say it is awfully close, but I’m not sure I can give their decision the same ringing endorsement.
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