We’re getting more clarity as to who the Cavs could face in the first round.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have quietly put together a good week of basketball after their four-game losing streak. They’ve won four of their last five and are closing in on locking up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. At this point, the Cavs can’t possibly fall below the second seed.
Cleveland’s magic number for securing the top spot in the conference is now four. The Boston Celtics are the only team that could possibly catch them. Any Cavs win or Celtics loss would move the magic number down. Cleveland has seven games remaining while Boston has eight, including a matchup on Monday night against the Memphis Grizzlies.
It is unlikely that Boston catches up with Cleveland at this point in the season. The Cavs would need to lose at least four of their last seven games. If they did so, the Celtics would need to win the rest of their games to overtake them for the one seed. As a result, Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities have the Cavs with a 98.3% chance of finishing with the top spot.
Who the Cavs could face in the first round is much more fluid and will be decided with the Play-In Tournament. If they were the one seed, they would take on the winner of the third Play-In game. The Play-In Tournament will be played April 15-18.
Cleveland could play any of the teams that finish seventh through tenth in the standings. Those teams are mostly locked into the Play-In Tournament. Their position is more fluid.
Let’s quickly run through each of those teams.
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is currently the seventh seed at 36-38. Basketball Reference gives them a 98% chance of falling into the Play-In Tournament.
They’re currently a half game up on the Orlando Magic for the seventh seed and two games ahead of the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. The Magic could overtake them for the seventh spot, but it’s unlikely that they fall into the second Play-In category which would require them to win two games to make it into the playoffs.
They have a 59.1% chance of being the seventh seed and a 30% chance of being the eighth.
The Cavs have struggled against the Hawks this season. Atlanta has won two of their three meetings.
Orlando Magic
Orlando is a half game behind the Hawks for the seventh seed with a 36-39 record. That extra loss gives them just a 0.3% chance of making it into one of the top six spots in the conference. They will likely be Play-In bound.
The extra loss they have compared with the Hawks makes it much more likely they fall out of a top-eight spot before the end of the regular season. Both the Bulls and Heat are just a game and a half behind the Magic. As such, Orlando has a 20% chance of falling into the ninth or tenth spot.
The Cavs defeated the Magic in the first round of the playoffs last year in seven games. They’ve also beaten them two of the three times they’ve played this season.
Chicago Bulls
Somehow, the Bulls are closing out the season strong. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games which includes stunning upsets over the Los Angeles Lakers. They’re tied with the Heat with a 33-41 record. Both teams are a game and a half behind Orlando.
Chicago owns the tiebreaker over both the Magic and the Heat. Even at that, Basketball Reference gives them just a 13% chance of climbing into the top eight. They’re most likely to end the year in the 10th spot due to their remaining strength of schedule.
Cleveland has defeated Chicago all three times they’ve played this season. They have one more matchup coming up next week.
Miami Heat
Miami is currently in the 10th spot, but they have a better chance of leapfrogging the Bulls due to their remaining strength of schedule. The Heat still have two games with the Washington Wizards, and will take on both the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers. That’s the exact way you want to close out your season if you’re fighting for a playoff spot.
That schedule gives them a 15.9% chance of reaching a top-eight spot.
The Heat are slowly turning things around after being a trainwreck since the Jimmy Butler trade. They’ve won four straight games and are positioned to have a strong end to their season.
The Cavs have won two of their three games against the Heat this season.
Cleveland will likely face one of these four teams in the first round. The Cavs are locked into a top-two seed and the four teams mentioned can’t fall out of the Play-In race with only a slight chance of advancing into a top six spot. There’s a combined 2.3% chance that either the Milwaukee Bucks or Detroit Pistons fall into the Play-In, but that is highly unlikely.
The Cavs probably don’t have too much of a preference as to who they face in the first round. They should easily handle their business regardless of who their opponent is, even if it is the Hawks, who’ve beaten them twice already this season.
We’ll see how things shake out as we come barreling towards the end of the regular season.