There’s no reason to panic over Darius Garland’s shooting slump

Garland’s production has diminished post All-Star break.

Few players were more impactful in the first half of the NBA season than Darius Garland. His blazing hot start to the season had the Cleveland Cavaliers on pace for 70 wins — and Garland was forming a strong case for All-NBA along the way.

Garland’s efficiency was through the roof to start the year. He was bordering on the 50/40/90 club as a 43.1% three-point shooter and 49.8% success rate from the floor overall. He was the quintessential floor general, scoring and dishing the rock at an elite level.

That’s changed since the All-Star break.

Garland’s averages have plummeted across the board. His scoring is down by more than four points per game and he’s gone from historic shooting to below league average. There’s context that explains this — like a hip injury that immediately preceded his worst shooting slump of the season.

Still, Garland has looked agile for a few weeks now. Indicating that the hip injury that limited his mobility for some of March has since vanished. And yet, Garland’s productivity remains below the All-NBA level he was playing at before the break.

He hasn’t been totally awful. The 21 games since All-Star weekend include a 12-game stretch where Garland averaged 19 points on 43.4% shooting. That’s only a small step worse than where he was before. But it’s still not enough.

Let’s watch the film from their recent loss to Sacramento and see if we can figure anything out.

The process is still there

It’s a make-or-miss league. Unfortunately, there’s only so much you can control about shooting variance. Ups and downs are inevitable. The most important thing is following a routine that will maximize your likelihood of success.

In other words, you have to trust the process.

Garland’s process has mostly stayed the same during this slump. He’s not pressing or playing outside of himself. Take this snatchback three-point attempt to start the game against the Sacremento Kings. This is a shot Garland has hit for his entire career.

The same goes for this next shot attempt. It’s a bit more ambitious than the previous. But Garland had been shooting 41% on step-back three-pointers before the All-Star break. That number has fallen to 24% since.

Does this mean Garland should abandon the step-back jumper? Of course not. He needs to stay confident in his process. For this reason, I’m happy Garland is actually attempting more three-pointers per game in the second half of the season than in the first (7.2 per game compared to 7.0). Garland must continue to believe in his jumper. The last thing Cleveland needs is for Garland to become gun-shy. So far, so good.

Key Scoring Zones

The three-point shot will be huge in the playoffs. Cleveland won’t go far if Garland (and others) are cold from deep. But there are more zones to keep an eye on. In fact, the in-between game might be the most important swing factor for Galrand this postseason.

The Cavs will need Garland to punish teams for playing him in a drop coverage. That means pull-up jumpers and floaters in the lane.

Garland torched opponents at a 59.7% clip on driving floaters before the All-Star break. He’s shooting just 37.7% on floaters since. That number needs to be much closer to the former if Cleveland wants to make a deep playoff push.

Take the blow shot as an example. Domontas Sabonis is dropping back to defend this pick-and-roll. That leaves DG with no available pass to Jarrett Allen. Thus, a floater is the best plan of attack. Garland buries this one and gives Cleveland the lead.

Here we see another great read from Garland. The Kings are in drop coverage, so he occupies the defender just long enough to fool everyone with a hesitation move before exploding to the rim for an easy layup. This is surgical stuff that wins basketball games.

But… remember what I said about it being a make-or-miss league? Garland gets to his spot with another quality three-point attempt that just misses the mark.

A few plays later, Garland walks into the middle of the floor and has an open floater to make it a one-possession game. Clank. The Kings are now back in control.

The floater and pull-up three-pointer will be the shots that decide entire playoff series for Garland and the Cavs. This recent dip in efficiency is concerning. But it’s encouraging that the first half of the season showed how dominant he can be. Which version of Garland we get in the playoffs will ultimately be the story.

So… is the season over?

Look, I can’t tell Darius Garland how to make shots. No amount of analysis or complaining from fans will make the ball go in the basket. All I can do is analyze the types of shots he’s taking — and use previous context to judge whether or not those shot attempts are a recipe for success.

From that perspective, Garland is playing the right way. He just isn’t shooting the ball at a high level right now.

I wouldn’t panic over a shooting slump. Pull a 20-game sample size from any All-Star in the NBA and you can find a stretch that was less than ideal. That said, Garland’s hitting his slump at possibly the worst time of the year. With less than a week before the playoffs — we’d like to see some regression to the mean here.

The truth is, none of this matters until the playoffs begin. That would be true even if Garland was still firmly in the 50/40/90 club. This team has proven all they can in the regular season. The proof of concept has already been shown to us. Doing it in the playoffs is all that remains.

So for Garland, there’s no sense in panicking. The real games haven’t started yet. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Garland, like any other volume shooter, is prone to streaky stretches. All he can do is stay the course and make them count in the postseason. Changing his approach or abandoning the game plan that got him here would be a mistake.

In short, let’s take a deep breath and wait for April 20 before ringing the alarms.