The Buckeyes have been near perfect in the CFP, and while they don’t need to be to win it all, it would sure help.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are two wins away from a national championship and there are three blue-blood programs standing in their way. The first will be the Texas Longhorns who will be the de facto home team in Friday night’s Cotton Bowl Classic, the second of two semifinals this week. While much of the national attention around Steve Sarkisian’s team is focused on former Buckeye turned Longhorn quarterback Quinn Ewers and his famous-family backup, UT is led by one of the best defenses in the country.
The Horns come into the College Football Playoff semifinal with the nation’s No. 3 total defense, No. 4 scoring defense, No. 3 passing defense, and No. 14 rush defense (Ohio State is Nos. 1, 1, 1, and 5 in those categories respectively). If Ryan Day’s Buckeyes want to continue their redemption arc toward a College Football Playoff title, they will need to find ways to score against the most talent-laden defense that they have faced thus far in the postseason.
Despite the statistical dominance that the Longhorns have displayed on defense this season, they are also pretty explosive on offense. Texas leads FBS with 102 plays of 20 yards or more (OSU is 28th with a very nice 69 such plays), highlighting not only their big-play ability, but also their usage of tempo. Sark’s squad is averaging 72.7 plays per game, 22nd nationally and the third most in the playoff. Conversely, Ohio State is 123rd out of 134 FBS teams at only 62.9 plays per game.
Despite similar firepower on both sidelines, there has been a fundamental difference in how each team approaches its offensive and plans that could come into play on Friday night at AT&T Stadium. So, let’s take a look at some of the keys that will determine who advances to the playoff championship round.
Don’t let Texas beat you with Michigan’s game plan
I know this is painful, Ohio State fans, but the Michigan Wolverines figured out how to slow down this dynamic Buckeye offense. And while they might have been aided by the weather, an in-his-head coach, and a discombobulated (but apparently non-concussed) Will Howard, the Maize and Blue were able to essentially force the OSU offense to play in a phone booth.
In the regular season finale, the Buckeyes were unable to take advantage of their ridiculous skill player advantage — most noteably the best wide receiver in the sport, Jeremiah Smith. However, since then, Ohio State’s offense and Howard have been practically perfect.
Through the first two rounds of the CFP the former Kansas State quarterback has thrown for 630 yards and five touchdowns with only one very suspect interception. Smith has shown the world how freakily talented he is by amassing 13 receptions, 290 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns in those two games. Day and Chip Kelly need to continue to lean on their stable of weapons if they want to advance, and the stats suggest that they might be able to do just that.
Through their first two playoff games, the Longhorns have allowed 632 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air to Clemson and Arizona State, a fact that should have Howard and company salivating. But, because UT has been leading for the vast majority of those games, their opponents have taken to the air early in efforts to mount comebacks (more on that later), so the passing stats might be a bit skewed.
As mentioned earlier, the Horns have one of the best statistical pass defenses in the country, led by Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron. On the season, he has 61 tackles, 11 passes defended, 5 interceptions, and 3 tackles for loss. If Barron and fellow All-SEC safety Andrew Mukuba are able to limit the explosive, down-field plays from Ohio State’s offense, the Buckeyes will be at a significant disadvantage.
While I am gaining confidence that the OSU coaching staff is finally learning from the scars of the Michigan game and won’t allow themselves to be put into the prove-you’re-tough-by-winning-the-running-game box, Texas’ defense does have the ability to take the pass away from most teams.
Despite the fact that I think Justin Frye and his room have done an admirable job accounting for injuries across the offensive line and putting together solid-to-impressive performances, I don’t know that I am fully comfortable with having to rely on that unit to win the Buckeyes a game just yet.
And given Ohio State’s talent in the passing game, I would not be surprised if UT defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski gave the Buckeyes a light box in most passing downs, inviting them to run the ball while clogging up the secondary in an attempt to keep the ball in front of them. While that might open up some running lanes for TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins (and even Howard), the Buckeyes cannot get enamored solely by ground yards.
I don’t know if any defense has the ability to stop — or even slow down — what Howard, Smith, and the rest of the OSU offense is doing through the air right now, but if anyone can, it is probably Texas. So, Day and Kelly need to make a concerted effort to keep putting the ball in the air and finding ways for their playmakers to make plays.
Make Texas one-dimensional offensively
Conversely, Ohio State needs to try to do the exact same thing when the Longhorns have the ball. Texas has had an inconsistent rushing offense this season, heck, even in the postseason. In their first round win over Clemson, the Horns rushed for 292 yards, but in their quarterfinal victory over Arizona State, they only put up 53.
Like the Buckeyes, UT has had injuries on the offensive line, as well as at running back. That has led to a middling, but consistent running game throughout the season. They are averaging only 165.47 yards on the ground per game, good for 63rd in the FBS. However, they have only been held under 100 yards rushing in three games this season: the two losses to Georgia and the aforementioned Peach Bowl overtime victory. So, it would be nice if Ohio State’s #BIA secondary could force Sark to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.
All Ohio State fans are aware of the talent and potential possessed by Quinn Ewers. While there are some in Burnt Orange Nation that are clamoring for the Arch Manning Era to begin sooner rather than later, the former No. 1 overall prospect can still sling it. But the biggest issue this season for Ewers this season has been his health.
In Texas’s fourth game of the season, the quarterback suffered an injury to his oblique against Louisiana-Monroe that kept him out of a handful of games, and hindered him when he returned. Then, in their penultimate regular season game against Kentucky, Ewers suffered a high-ankle sprain that limited his ability to move in the pocket and to scramble when need be.
However, with the added time between the SEC Championship Game and the CFP, Ewers appears to have gotten the rest he needed as he has said that he is as healthy as he has been since that early-season oblique strain. And while I think that Jim Knowles’ defense has the ability to frustrate ay quarterback regardless of health status, Ewers being as close to 100% as possible certainly makes it more difficult.
Texas’ offense is predicated on the its ability to confuse the defense. The Horns will use motions, shifts, exotic looks, play action, and anything else they can come up with to throw the defense off; Ewers has thrown the fourth most passes in FBS this season off of play action, so the Buckeyes need to be disciplined.
If OSU’s corners Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, and the increasingly important Jermaine Mathews Jr. are able to lock down UT’s wide receivers, that can allow the rest of the Buckeye defense — including safeties Caleb Downs, Jordan Hancock, and Lathan Ransom — to key in on the run.
Ewers’ might not yet have lived up to the expectations that most people had for him coming out of high school, but he is still an incredibly talented player capable of making spectacular plays — as evidenced by the stretch run against ASU. So, if the Buckeye secondary can clamp down on his receivers and force Texas to the ground, that would go a long way to paving the way for a Championship Game appearance for the Scarlet and Gray.
TEXAS ON 4TH DOWN TO STAY ALIVE pic.twitter.com/so6g50zUaR
— ESPN (@espn) January 1, 2025
All gas, no breaks to start the halves
During the regular season, one of the most frustrating issues for the Buckeyes was the fact that they just couldn’t seem to get going in the first half, let alone the first quarters. Day, Kelly, and Knowles seemed to figure things out after halftime, but those first 15 minutes or so were painfully slow.
In the regular season, OSU was 43rd nationally scoring only 6.3 points per game in the first quarter. Since then, however, everything has changed. In their two playoff games thus far, the Buckeyes have put up a combined 35 points in the first quarter, en route to scoring a combined 55 points before their opponents got on the board. That is not a hot start, that is absolutely thermonuclear.
While it would be foolish to expect Texas to let that to happen for a third-straight game, OSU cannot allow itself to slip back into its regular-season tendencies. For its part, UT is third nationally allowing only 1.8 points per first quarter.
While it isn’t necessary to win the game, it would sure be nice if the Buckeyes could come out of the gate, step on the gas, and demoralize the Horns like it did the Vols and Ducks, especially because OSU has a distinct second half advantage over UT.
Texas has not scored a touchdown in the third quarter in six games, while the Buckeyes are allowing a college football-leading 1.1 points per game in the third quarter this season; a full point better than second-place Penn State. In fact, the Buckeyes are giving up just 4.6 points per game in the second half, another FBS best.
In both of its CFP games, Texas has allowed its opponents to nearly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, largely because of its third quarter inefficiencies. UT has scored just three points in the third quarter of its two playoff games, which allowed Clemson and ASU to hang around, the latter then outscoring the Horns 16-7 in the fourth quarter to force overtime.
Coming into Friday night’s game, everybody is expecting Ohio State to be in full Death Star Mode. While UT will undoubtedly have a plan to slow them down, if the Buckeye juggernaut is able to make another decisive statement to open the game, it could be demoralizing to a Texas team that has had struggles in the second half. So here’s hoping that Ryan Day opens the Cotton Bowl with all gas, no breaks.