B1G Thoughts: Does Penn State have a ceiling, or does James Franklin?

After his eighth-straight loss to Ohio State, Penn State may have a James Franklin problem.

Every week after the Big Ten games, I will bring you some B1G thoughts on everything that happened! This will include analysis, stats, key players, moments, and more. With the Big Ten expanding from 14 teams to 18 teams in 2024 we will have a bunch of storylines to follow.

Ryan Day and Ohio State are all in for the 2024 season. Is Oregon a national championship contender or will they stumble in their first Big Ten season? How do the former members of the Big Ten West fair in the new divisionless format? This article tracks all these storylines and more as the Big Ten hopes to win back-to-back national championships.

Check out the I-80 Football Show for more in-depth analysis and to preview the next week of B1G games.

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Whose ceiling is it anyway?

After losing its eighth-straight game against Ohio State and James Franklin’s 10th in 11 tries, Penn State has a clear ceiling. The question is whose ceiling is it: Penn State’s or Franklin’s?

Penn State is too good to fire Franklin. They’re almost guaranteed to go 11-1 and make the College Football Playoff this season. We all understand that they are the biggest beneficiaries of the 12-team playoff and not playing Ohio State and Michigan every year. If Franklin goes 11-1 this season, he will have won 11 games for the second time in three seasons.

The problem lies in the rest. Franklin has been at Penn State for 11 years. Here’s a brief look at this resume:

• One Big Ten Championship
• Five 11-win seasons
• 1-10 record against Ohio State
• 3-7 record against Michigan
• 1-13 record against top-five teams
• 3-18 record against top-10 teams
• 13-27 record against top-25 teams

Under Franklin and before the Big Ten expanded, Penn State was very clearly the third-best team in the conference. They were also pretty clearly not a real national championship contender.

Franklin wins more times than not, with a 95-40 record at Penn State, but he also loses essentially every big game he plays. He struggles to hire and empower good offensive coordinators, and there are always clear holes on his roster. For years it was along the offensive line, and now it’s wide receiver.

I don’t know if Penn State should move on from Franklin — I’m pretty sure they can’t afford it. But in his own words his program is great but not elite, and I’m pretty sure he’s reached his ceiling. It may be time for a Brian Kelly-type separation where Franklin leaves for another job, allowing both sides to try to win without each other.

Until then, Penn State fans need to determine if they can accept their place in life.

Are Ohio State fans moving the goalpost?

I will start this section by saying that my opinion on Ryan Day has not changed, but I fully believe in giving credit when credit is due and this was one of Day’s biggest wins in his tenure.

After many fans called for Ryan Day’s job due in large part to his inability to win big games, there continues to be a conversation that beating Penn State isn’t a big game. Let’s be clear here: beating Penn State is a big win, and saying anything else is moving the goalpost. You can struggle to believe in Day’s ability to win a national championship — I do — but let’s not pretend this was not a big win for the resume.

Going into this game the vibes were at an all-time low in Columbus. The Buckeyes entered this past weekend with questions on the offensive line, with Abdul Carter looking to improve his draft stock with scouts in the building. Ohio State started this game in a 10-0 hole and found a way to dominate the game.

They got a key interception and sacks when needed, plus a goal-line stand to win the game. Their makeshift offensive line ran the ball 10-straight times to run off the final five minutes of game time. From the vibes to the roster concerns to going down 10 points in the first quarter, Ohio State had every reason to give up. Instead, they played one of their most inspired performances.

The season is far from over. For now, you can allow yourself to appreciate this win.

Minnesota is having a sneaky good year.

Before the season I was questioning if it was time for Minnesota to go the route of Wisconsin and move on from their generally successful coach who has a clear ceiling in the new Big Ten.

While it is still true that Minnesota has a clear ceiling, they are now 6-3 after nine games and eight wins are not off the table with games against Rutgers and Wisconsin left on the schedule. Minnesota is probably not going to make the 12-team playoff often, but P.J. Fleck has already won 10 and 11 games before, and those seasons would get into the playoffs in a lot of years.

After a 3-point loss to Michigan and two ranked wins over USC and Illinois, Minnesota has shown that it can still compete. Maybe patience will pay off. Regardless of the future, Fleck continues to prove that he can win at Minnesota. There may be more 6-7 years like the 2023 season, but there will also be eight and nine-win seasons and some years the Golden Gophers might strike gold!

To bowl or not to bowl? That is the question…

With everyone in the Big Ten having played eight or nine games, now is a good time to review who is or could become bowl eligible in the last month of the season.

Playoff Bound: Indiana (9-0), Ohio State (7-1), Oregon (9-0), Penn State (7-1)

Bowl Eligible: Illinois (6-3), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (6-3)

Lurking: Michigan (5-4), Nebraska (5-4), Rutgers (4-4), Washington (5-4), Wisconsin (5-4)

Unlikely, but Possible: Michigan State (4-4), USC (4-5), Northwestern (4-5)

Curtains Closed: Maryland (4-4), Purdue (1-7), UCLA (3-5)

Nebraska finds itself in a familiar place. Once again they won five games early and are struggling to get their sixth win. While they have winnable games left, UCLA was their best chance to gain bowl eligibility — and they lost.

USC really needed to beat Washington, as they finish the year with Nebraska, UCLA, and Notre Dame. USC could win two of their last three, but it’s just as likely they lose all three. They’re not having a good time in Southern California.

Lastly, Washington beating USC was huge. They finish the year with two sure losses in Penn State and Oregon, but they gave themselves a one-game season against UCLA for a chance to go bowling in their first season under Jedd Fisch.

Get ready for the playoffs!

This article drops on Tuesday, and has the honor of sharing the day with the College Football Playoff rankings. The first-ever ranking for the first edition of the 12-team playoff drops tomorrow, and there is going to be a lot to learn about how the committee views the country and which teams it’s most impressed by.

Some things to watch for the Big Ten:

• Between Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee, how does the committee rank the one loss Big Ten and SEC teams? Whose resume do they value more after eight games?
• Indiana, 9-0, is one of five undefeated teams in FBS, including Oregon, Miami, BYU and Army. So far Indiana has not been well respected in the AP Poll, finally cracking the top-10 after nine wins and some chaos in the Top 25. Where does the committee rank Indiana, and do they respect their resume?
• Is there any indication of whether they will avoid conference rematches or early-round conference games? Would it allow Indiana and Penn State to be ranked eight and nine and play in the first round, or will they adjust similar resumes to create the best matchups?

Play(s) of the Week – Goal Line Stand Edition!

Football is a beautiful sport, but there are not many things better than watching a goal line stand! 22 people lined up across from each other with four plays to fight for five yards. More times than not the offense wins out, so we must celebrate when a defense comes out on top!

This time, it’s No. 4 Ohio State stuffing No. 3 Penn State to secure one of the biggest wins in the Ryan Day era.

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