The Buckeyes enter the season as the No. 30 team in the country according to KenPom.
Following two-straight seasons of missing the NCAA Tournament and an 11-year hiatus since the program’s last Sweet Sixteen appearance, Ohio State fans are ready and anxious for the men’s basketball program to elevate its standards and results to that which they saw in the late 2000’s.
Enter Jake Diebler: the 15th head coach in program history and the first native Ohioan to lead the program in 35 years. The older brother of an Ohio State legend and the son of an Ohio high school basketball coaching legend, Diebler enters his first season with high expectations from the fanbase and a buzz around the program that has been absent for the better part of a decade.
While Ohio State fans expect big things from Diebler in time, most of the Buckeye faithful seem to be tempering their expectations in year one. In a May poll that nearly 200 Ohio State fans responded to, 75% of respondents said that just making the NCAA Tournament is the bar they’re hoping Diebler hits this season.
Would most fans love to see Ohio State advance to the second weekend for the first time since 2013, or win the Big Ten for the first time since 2012? Absolutely, but Diebler and his staff need to walk before they can sprint, and fans clearly understand this.
With that said, I took a look at Ohio State’s pre-season metrics, their place in the pre-season media poll, and other circumstances that apply to the 2024-25 Ohio State men’s basketball program. I then looked back to see how many teams under these same circumstances either:
A) Advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, or
B) Made the NCAA Tournament
Looking back five years is probably not a sufficient sampling size to draw any big conclusions, but it should give fans examples of other programs that succeeded (or didn’t) when entering the season with similar expectations and circumstances as these Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s KenPom rank to start the season: 30
Question: How many of last year’s Sweet Sixteen teams ended the season 30th or better in KenPom?
Answer: 15
The only Sweet Sixteen team that did not end the year 30th or better in KenPom was North Carolina State. The Wolfpack were the 10-seed in the ACC Tournament and were not a projected NCAA Tournament team, but ripped off five wins in five days to punch their automatic ticket to the big dance. They then advanced to the program’s first Final Four since 1983 as an 11-seed, and finished the year at No. 45 in KenPom.
Question 2: Of the last five teams to finish No. 30 in the KenPom rankings, how many made the NCAA Tournament?
Answer: Four of the last five teams that finished the season No. 30 in KenPom made the NCAA Tournament.
- Nebraska finished 30th in KenPom last season and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Indiana finished 30th in KenPom for the 2022-23 season and lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Oklahoma finished 30th in KenPom for the 2021-22 season and did not make the NCAA Tournament.
- San Diego State finished 30th in KenPom for the 2020-21 season and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Villanova finished 30th in KenPom for the 2018-19 season and lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State’s place in the preseason media poll: 8th
Question: How many of last year’s Sweet Sixteen teams were picked to finish 8th or worse in their conference?
Answer: Zero
All 16 Sweet Sixteen teams from last season were picked to finish seventh or better in their conferences in their respective pre-season media polls. North Carolina State was picked to finish seventh in the ACC. Iowa State was picked to finish seventh in the Big 12. The other 14 teams were picked to finish somewhere between first and fifth in their conferences.
Question 2: Of the last five Big Ten teams that were picked to finish 8th in the conference in the pre-season media poll, how many made the NCAA Tournament?
Answer: Three of the last five teams picked to finish 8th over the past five years made the NCAA tournament.
- Northwestern was picked to finish 8th last season, and made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Rutgers was picked to finish 8th for the 2022-23 season and did not make the NCAA Tournament.
- Rutgers was picked to finish 8th for the 2021-22 season and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
- Indiana was picked to finish 8th for the 2020-21 season and did not make the NCAA Tournament.
- Ohio State was picked to finish 8th for the 2018-19 season and made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State’s place in the first AP Poll: Unranked
Question: How many of last year’s Sweet Sixteen teams were unranked in the first AP Poll of the season?
Answer: Three
Clemson, Iowa State, and North Carolina State were all unranked to begin the season. By Selection Sunday, Clemson was unranked, North Carolina State was unranked, and Iowa State was No. 4 in the AP Poll.
Ohio State’s seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament: N/A
Question: How many of last year’s Sweet Sixteen teams did not make the 2023 NCAA Tournament?
Answer: Two
Clemson and North Carolina both missed the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago, and then went on to make the Sweet Sixteen (Clemson made the Elite Eight). Clemson finished 14-6 in the ACC two years ago, and was considered the biggest tournament “snub”. North Carolina went 11-9 overall in the ACC two seasons ago and was also left out.
Ohio State’s results in the 2024 NIT: Quarterfinals
Question: How many teams that advanced to the 2023 NIT quarterfinals then went on to make the NCAA Tournament in 2024?
Answer: Two
Oregon missed the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but did advance to the quarterfinals of the NIT that season before losing to Wisconsin. The Ducks then earned an 11-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Creighton.
Wisconsin missed the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but did advance to the semifinals of the NIT that year before falling to eventual champion North Texas. The Badgers then earned a 5-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and lost in the first round to James Madison.