The Buckeyes have been metrics darlings this year, staying afloat despite picking up 11 losses.
It might not feel like it at times, but the Ohio State men’s basketball team (15-11, 7-8) has actually been pretty good this season.
At least, that’s what the metrics say.
Despite a three-game losing streak during conference play, a 38-point loss to Auburn, and a total of six games that were lost on the final possession, Ohio State has cracked the metrics code this season and is still viewed as a very solid team in the eyes of metrics like KenPom and the NET.
KenPom rankings are considered by the committee that selects the 68-team tournament field, but the NCAA’s NET ranking is even more vital to a team’s tournament chances. It is in the best interest of every team to remain high in both rankings, and despite racking up 11 losses, Ohio State is still in a respectable spot in both rankings.
As of early Tuesday morning, Ohio State was No. 28 in KenPom’s rankings and No. 30 in the NET. The Buckeyes are the only team with double-digit losses in the top-30 of KenPom, and the only team with 11 losses in the top-45 (North Carolina sits at No. 48 with an identical record of 15-11). Ohio State is also the highest-rated team in the NET to have 10+ losses, with Texas sliding in right behind them at No. 31 with a record of 16-10.
Bracket Matrix — a conglomeration of nearly 100 bracket predictions scattered across the internet, averaged together for simplicity — still had Ohio State as a 9-seed as of Monday night.
The Buckeyes have — thus far — avoided any crushing losses on the resume, with zero losses in the Quad-3 or Quad-4 categories. Right now Ohio State’s “worst” losses on the resume are home losses to Indiana, Pitt, and Oregon — the last two of which are still fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament themselves.
On top of that, the Buckeyes have perfected the art of “looking good” in losses. No, it doesn’t look good to Buckeye fans when you have to overcome a 17-point deficit on the road at Wisconsin just to lose by two points in the final seconds, but to the committee it shows that Ohio State is on a similar level to Wisconsin. The same goes for Michigan, Pitt, Indiana, and every other close loss — Ohio State is not losing convincingly, and they’re beating the teams that they should beat (for the most part).
Because of this, the Buckeyes have slipped through the analytical cracks despite racking up the losses. With five regular season games remaining, Ohio State probably needs to win three out of the last five to feel good about their spot in the NCAA Tournament, right?
An 18-13 record, with a 10-10 record in Big Ten play, should get them in. But anything worse than that, and the Buckeyes may be tempting fate.
Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Even if analytics like the NET and KenPom still shine favorably on a 14 or 15-loss Ohio State team, at the end of the day human beings finalize the NCAA Tournament bracket, and those human beings simply haven’t put teams with 15 or 16 losses into the NCAA Tournament recently.
After reviewing the resumes of many of the “bubble teams” over the past three seasons (9-12-seeded at-large teams), I can conclude that no team with more than 14 losses entering the tournament has received an at-large bid from 2022-2024.
There were multiple teams to make it with a record of 17-14, however, so does that boot Ohio State if they were to say, end the season 17-15 but then win one or two games in the Big Ten Tournament to end 18-15 or 19-15? Probably not! Precedent is only precedent until something else supersedes it.
But still, 14 losses looks like the magic number that Ohio State should not want to pass if the team wants to feel good about making the big dance. Assuming the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten Tournament, that means they can probably afford two more losses in their final five games.
It also doesn’t look like the NET ranking of a team is as critical as it may seem. Over the past three seasons, there’s been a 9-seed that was No. 55 in the NET, and another year there was an 11-seed that finished No. 34. It’s clearly a factor, but resume and the raw wins and losses also matter.
For the purpose of comparing them to the 2024-2025 Ohio State Buckeyes, here are the records of each of the 9-11 seeds from each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, as well as their NET ranking on Selection Sunday. This includes teams that went to the First Four in Dayton and lost, and also includes 2022 Indiana, which somehow got an at-large 12-seed even though those seeds are usually left for the best mid-major teams.
12-seeds
2022 Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 21-13
NET: 38
11-seeds
2022 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record: 17-14
NET: 77
2022 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record: 23-10
NET: 53
2022 Michigan Wolverines
Record: 17-14
NET: 34
2022 Virginia Tech Hokies
Record: 23-12
NET: 27
(Won ACC Tournament and earned automatic bid)
2023 NC State Wolfpack
Record: 23-10
NET: 45
2023 Pitt Panthers
Record: 23-11
NET: 67
2023 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 20-13
NET: 49
2023 Providence Friars
Record: 21-11
NET: 56
2023 Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 23-12
NET: 66
2023 Nevada Wolfpack
Record: 21-11
NET: 37
2024 Duquesne Dukes
Record: 24-11
NET: 80
(Won A-10 Tournament and earned automatic bid)
2024 NC State Wolfpack
Record: 22-14
NET: 63
(Won ACC Tournament and earned automatic bid)
2024 New Mexico Lobos
Record: 26-9
NET: 22
(Won Mountain West Tournament and earned automatic bid)
2024 Oregon Ducks
Record: 23-11
NET: 59
(Won PAC-12 Tournament and earned automatic bid)
10-seeds
2022 Davidson Wildcats
Record: 27-6
NET: 41
2022 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Record: 25-7
NET: 23
2022 San Francisco Dons
Record: 24-9
NET: 22
2022 Miami Hurricanes
Record: 23-10
NET: 62
2023 Utah State Aggies
Record: 26-8
NET: 18
2023 Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 22-13
NET: 48
2023 USC Trojans
Record: 22-10
NET: 50
2023 Boise State Broncos
Record: 24-9
NET: 29
2024 Drake Bulldogs
Record: 28-6
NET: 47
2024 Boise State Broncos
Record: 22-10
NET: 26
2024 Colorado Buffaloes
Record: 25-10
NET: 36
2024 Nevada Wolfpack
Record: 26-7
NET: 34
2024 Colorado State Rams
Record: 25-10
NET: 36
9-seeds
2022 Memphis Tigers
Record: 21-10
NET: 53
2022 TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 20-12
NET: 44
2022 Marquette Golden Eagles
Record: 19-12
NET: 42
2022 Creighton Blue Jays
Record: 22-11
NET: 55
2023 West Virginia Mountaineers
Record: 19-14
NET: 25
2023 Auburn Tigers
Record: 20-12
NET: 32
2023 Florida Atlantic Owls
Record: 31-3
NET: 13
(Won American Athletic Conference Tournament and earned automatic bid)
2023 Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 20-12
NET: 34
2024 Northwestern
Record: 21-11
NET: 53
2024 Texas A&M
Record: 20-14
NET: 45
2024 Michigan State Spartans
Record: 19-14
NET: 24
2024 TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 21-12
NET: 42