The battle between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions is usually a tight matchup. Plus, picks for the rest of the week’s Big Ten action.
Last week ATS: 10-6 (6-2 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 75-80 (30-32 National, 45-49 B1G)
My picks for this week’s entertaining games outside the Big Ten can be found here.
Big Ten games
Minnesota (-2.5) v. No. 24 Illinois – 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1
At first I didn’t understand this line at all. Sure, Illinois is coming off a drubbing at the hands of Oregon, but the Ducks are the best team in the country right now. The Fighting Illini might have some deeper issues, though. Illinois has had some defensive issues at times this year, as evidenced by giving up 49 points to Purdue in an overtime win last month.
Minnesota looks like they are hitting their stride, winning their last three games. After sweeping the new Big Ten teams from Los Angeles, last week the Golden Gophers hung 48 points on Maryland. It looks like FCS transfer quarterback Max Brosmer is starting to get comfortable in the Minnesota offense, finding a trusted target in wide receiver Daniel Jackson.
In the end, this game is going to come down to running the football. The Golden Gophers have an edge in that area. Running back Darius Taylor has been bust or boom this season, rushing for over 120 yards in two games, while failing to reach 40 rushing yards in three other contests. I think Taylor has a big day here against an Illinois team that will still be reeling from last week’s loss.
Minnesota 30, Illinois 21
Northwestern (-1.5) v. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
This is one of those real sickos games. There is no reason to watch this game, unless you are an alum of either school, and even then you could probably find something better to do with your Saturday.
Since I have to make a pick here, I’ll side with family since my uncle is a Purdue grad. The Boilermakers will be at home with a little extra rest after hosting Oregon two Fridays ago. Purdue snaps their six-game losing streak with an ugly win.
Purdue 20, Northwestern 13
No. 1 Oregon (-15.5) v. Michigan – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
After playing a couple tight games to open up the season, Oregon really found their rhythm in the second half against Oregon State. Since then the only team to challenge the Ducks has been Ohio State. Wide receiver Tez Johnson has been outstanding over the last five games, scoring at least one touchdown in each of those contests.
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
A victory against Michigan State doesn’t fix everything for the Wolverines. Michigan turned back to Davis Warren at quarterback last week, with the senior throwing for 123 yards in the victory over the Spartans. Just how bad has the Michigan passing attack been? The 123 yards is Warren’s second-highest total over the season over his four starts.
The Wolverines might be able to get away with their brand of football this year against a poorly coached team like USC. They won’t be anywhere near as lucky against Oregon. Last time the Ducks visited Ann Arbor they eviscerated Michigan 39-7 in 2007. The final margin of victory might not be quite that much, but it certainly will be more than the spread.
Oregon 34, Michigan 14
No. 13 Indiana (-7.5) v. Michigan State – 3:30 p.m. ET – Peacock
There is talking Kurtis Rourke might be able to play this week after missing last week’s game against Washington because of a thumb injury suffered against Nebraska. Honestly, the Hoosiers probably don’t even need Rourke this week. Head coach Curt Cignetti would be wise to keep Rourke on the sidelines until he is fully healthy, especially with a showdown with Ohio State looming.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has played cleaner football of late, only throwing one interception over the last three games after tossing eight picks in the first four contests. The Spartans still have issues scoring touchdowns, though. Even against Iowa, 18 of their 32 points came from field goals. Not finishing drives is something that definitely won’t fly against Indiana.
Amazingly this is only the third road game Indiana has played this year. The Hoosiers have taken care of business when away from Bloomington, scoring at least 40 points in each game, while winning those contests by at least 17 points. Even if Rourke doesn’t play, Indiana is too much for Michigan State to handle.
Indiana 34, Michigan State 21
UCLA v. Nebraska (-6.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Kudos to Nebraska for responding last week after getting blown out by Indiana two weeks ago. The Cornhuskers gave Ohio State all they could handle in the 21-17 loss in Columbus. The only knock on what we saw from the Nebraska offense was they threw too many screen passes, allowing the Buckeyes to record 13 TFLs.
UCLA played their best game of the season in a 35-32 win at Rutgers two weeks ago. Then again, that’s not saying much since the Bruins have been terrible this year, and Rutgers has definitely lost their early season momentum. Ethan Garbers threw for 383 yards and four scores in the win over the Scarlet Knights.
I just don’t see UCLA making it two wins in a row. Nebraska knows this is a great chance for them to become bowl eligible for the first time in forever. Garbers doesn’t find nearly as much success against a Cornhuskers defense that just did a pretty good job at holding Will Howard and the Buckeyes in check.
Nebraska 27, UCLA 17
Wisconsin v. Iowa (-3.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Maybe a change at quarterback is just what Iowa needed. After Cade McNamara was ineffective early on against Northwestern, Kirk Ferentz turned to Brendan Sullivan. The Hawkeyes broke the game open with 28 points in the third quarter in the 40-14 victory. Running back Kaleb Johnson added to his outstanding season stat line, rushing for three touchdowns.
Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images
Wisconsin saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week, losing to Penn State 28-13. I’m still uncertain if the Badgers are even a middle-tier Big Ten team right now since their winning streak came against the weaklings of the conference. If Wisconsin doesn’t win here they might not become bowl eligible since they close the season with Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota.
Good luck Braedyn Locke, you’re going to need it. Under the lights at Kinnick doesn’t sound like a lot of fun, especially for an offense dealing with confidence issues. Sullivan shows he is the best choice at quarterback right now, supplementing what Johnson gives them on the ground with some smart throws.
Iowa 27, Wisconsin 16
USC (-2.5) v. Washington – 7:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Even though these two teams are new to the Big Ten, they are quite familiar with each other from their time in the Pac-12. Also, it is still jarring that this is a game on Big Ten Network. Maybe by this time next year I’ll be used to it.
USC actually closed out a football game! After three straight one-score losses, the Trojans handle business late into Friday night last week against Rutgers. Running back Woody Marks had himself a game, rushing for three touchdowns in the 42-20 victory. The Scarlet Knights just couldn’t muster enough offense to threaten an improving USC defense.
On the other side, Washington feels a bit like Rutgers west. The Huskies try hard, they just can’t put many points on the scoreboard. That’s not a recipe for success against a USC team that will be feeling good after dropping 42 points last week. I’ll gladly take the Trojans and the short line here.
USC 35, Washington 23
No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) v. No. 3 Penn State – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Be sure to have the Pepto handy when these two teams meet (and maybe a few six-packs). The last eight meetings between these two schools have been decided by an average of 7.5 points. While these foes are normally ranked when they square off, this will be just the second time they have both been ranked in the Top 5 when they have met.
Ohio State almost saw their season collapse last week. A big reason for the near upset was because of the ineffectiveness of Zen Michalski in filling in for injured tackle Josh Simmons. Not only was the rushing attack of the Buckeyes non-existent, Will Howard was under siege pretty much all game. Michalski’s status for this week’s game is unknown after he left last week’s game with an injury. Head coach Ryan Day said if Michalski can play he would start, which isn’t encouraging if you are a Buckeye fan.
Penn State has an injury issue of their own heading into this game. Quarterback Drew Allar left last week’s game against Wisconsin with a leg injury, and he is considered a game-time decision for Saturday’s game. If Allar can’t go, Beau Pribula will take the snaps for the Nittany Lions. Pribula isn’t quite as prolific of a passer as Allar, but gives the Nittany Lions more of a running element.
After watching Ohio State last week, laying the points could seem a bit scary. There’s a major reason why I like the Buckeyes this week, and it’s not just because I’m a homer. James Franklin turtles in big games. I know Ryan Day doesn’t inspire much confidence in that area, but he certainly is better than Franklin, who has just one win against Ohio State since taking over as the head coach of Penn State. The Buckeyes hand the Nittany Lions their first loss of the season.
Ohio State 28, Penn State 20