Picks for Cornhuskers-Buckeyes, Penn State-Wisconsin, and the rest of this weekend’s action around the conference.
Last week ATS: 6-9 (3-5 National, 3-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 65-74 (24-30 National, 41-44 B1G)
My picks for this week’s entertaining games outside the Big Ten can be found here.
Big Ten games (All games Saturday unless noted)
Rutgers v. USC (-13.5) – Friday 11:00 p.m. ET- FOX
After both these squads started off the season hot, they have come back down to earth in a big way, with each entering tonight’s contest riding three-game losing streaks. USC has really got to be kicking themselves for their recent slide since all three of their losses have seen them leading in the fourth quarter.
Rutgers has to be wondering who they pissed off in the Big Ten scheduling office to be playing across the country on a Friday night at 11:00 p.m. eastern time. The Scarlet Knights will be looking to avoid being swept by the new Big Ten teams from Los Angeles after falling 35-32 to UCLA last week.
USC definitely has the edge on offense in this one, but they also did against Minnesota and Maryland and it didn’t do them any good. I do like the ability Rutgers has to control the clock with running back Kyle Monangai. Maybe Greg Schiano even asked for Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis to call up former coach P.J. Fleck to see if he had any advice on taking down the Trojans.
Even though USC snaps their losing streak, I’m not convinced in their ability to win here by at least two touchdowns.
USC 31, Rutgers 21
Washington v. No. 13 Indiana (-6.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
It would be easy to doubt Indiana here with Kurtis Rourke on the shelf for the near future after suffering a thumb injury last week against Nebraska. The Hoosiers still have a ground game that is averaging over 200 yards per game, so while they might not be as explosive as they were with Rourke under center, they will still be able to make plenty of positive games.
Last time we saw Washington the Huskies were getting rolled at Iowa two weeks ago. Washington can’t afford to fall behind early because they haven’t shown the ability to put points on the board, as they haven’t scored more than 27 points in a game since early September. Will Rogers is a veteran quarterback, he just doesn’t have explosive targets in the passing game like we saw last year from the Huskies.
Many probably think Indiana is on upset alert with Rourke sidelined. I’m not one of those people. If this happened under Tom Allen I’d definitely think so. Curt Cignetti brought a new culture from James Madison. The Hoosiers believe they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten and stay undefeated with a win over a Washington team that still seems to be finding their identity under new head coach Jeff Fisch.
Indiana 34, Washington 20
No. 20 Illinois v. No. 1 Oregon (-21.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
If you asked me at the beginning of the year if I thought Oregon would be the top-ranked team in the country in late October, I would have said no since I thought Ohio State would have squeaked out a win at Autzen. Instead the Ducks were the ones to earn a tight victory in the showdown. Dan Lanning’s team didn’t even have a hangover at Purdue, shutting out the Boilermakers 35-0 last Friday.
Nothing Illinois does really jumps off the page at you. Luke Altmyer does a lot of things right at quarterback and the defense is solid. The Fighting Illini have had some close calls this year, winning two overtime games. Illinois can’t keep pace with Oregon offensively, so Bret Bielema will have to have some tricks up his sleeve.
Not saying I think Oregon isn’t for real, I just think Illinois is a tougher out than some are giving them credit for. Aside from last week against Purdue, Oregon has been sketchy covering big spreads this year. The Fighting Illini fight hard enough to keep this inside the number.
Oregon 41, Illinois 24
Northwestern v. Iowa (-13.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
If Iowa gets Kaleb Johnson going early they’ll be fine. In losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans, Johnson failed to reach 100 yards on the ground, with the touchdowns he scored coming in the fourth quarter with the Hawkeyes trailing by sizable amounts. While Cade McNamara has the ability to make some plays, Johnson is the straw that stirs the drink for Tim Lester’s offense.
As tough as it is to watch Iowa at times, Northwestern is so much worse. The Wildcats have serious issues moving the football, which will become even more evident against the Iowa defense. If the Hawkeyes can roll Washington at Kinnick, just imagine what they’ll do against Northwestern.
This one could get ugly for the Wildcats.
Iowa 30, Northwestern 10
Maryland v. Minnesota (-4.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET- FS1
Somehow Maryland snapped a two-game losing streak with a fourth quarter comeback against USC last week in College Park. Now the Terrapins and Golden Gophers will both be looking to take another step towards bowl eligibility as they enter Saturdays game with matching 4-3 records.
I think Minnesota has the edge in this game since they have the pass defense to slow down Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. The Golden Gophers have only allowed three passing touchdowns this year, and we saw how they were able to hold Miller Moss and USC in check in Minneapolis earlier this month.
Minnesota is a little better all-around team than Maryland in this one.
Minnesota 27, Maryland 17
No. 3 Penn State (-6.5) v. Wisconsin -7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Here I was thinking Wisconsin was dead after their loss to USC. Since then the Badgers have won three straight games, outscoring their opponents 117-16 during that stretch. I know those games were only against Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern but it would have been easy for Luke Fickell’s team to let the season spiral out of control after losing Tyler Van Dyke early in the season.
Even though Penn State is still undefeated I’m not all that impressed with the Nittany Lions. While they have Drew Allar, they haven’t been setting the world on fire through the air. Maybe that changes going forward after the breakout performance from tight end Tyler Warren against the Trojans. Then again, if Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are gashing defense on the ground the Nittany Lions don’t need to throw all that much.
Despite saying nice things about the Badgers earlier, I’m banking on Penn State to stay undefeated heading into next week’s showdown with Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are miles better than Wisconsin’s last three opponents, so don’t expect Braedyn Locke to be as productive as he has lately.
Penn State 28, Wisconsin 14
Michigan State v. Michigan (-4.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
This is the battle for Messigan (since both teams have been incredibly sloppy this year). Michigan State did find something against Iowa last week, holding outstanding running back Kaleb Johnson in check in the 32-20. The Spartans will have another tough task this week in trying to bottle up Kalel Mullings.
Somehow the offense of the Wolverines is getting worse. Now Michigan is on to quarterback Jack Tuttle, their third starter of the season. Mullings has been regressing over the last two games opponents know they don’t have to respect the Wolverines throwing the football.
This is head coach Jonathan Smith’s first experience in the battle for the Mitten State. Last week’s win over Iowa gives them some confidence Smith has things heading the right direction. The good feelings carry over with a win in a sloppy game in Ann Arbor.
Michigan State 23, Michigan 20
Nebraska v. No. 4 Ohio State (-25.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Ohio State takes the field on Saturday for the first time since their tough loss to Oregon in Eugene two weeks ago. The Buckeyes shouldn’t hang their head too low, since they did a lot of good things on the road against the team ranked No. 1 in the country right now.
Aside from sliding too late to stop the clock on the game’s last play, Will Howard was nearly flawless against Oregon, finding Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka a combined 19 times. The dynamic duo at wide receiver made up for limited production from TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Some of the issues running the football could be attributed to the Josh Simmons injury during the game.
Nebraska also enters this game coming off a road loss. The difference with their loss is they were thoroughly destroyed by Indiana, losing 56-7 to the Hoosiers. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has hit a bit of a wall, tossing three interceptions in last week’s blowout. The Cornhuskers have some pieces on offense, they just aren’t as dynamic as what the Buckeyes have.
There is the possibility of a sleepy start from Ohio State in a noon kickoff off a bye week. I don’t think it is anything that will hurt them too bad since they have shown the ability to turn things on in a blink. Plus, the defense will have a lot to prove after hearing two weeks of criticism following a bad game against the Oregon offense.
The Buckeyes restore their confidence before heading into next week’s game against Penn State.
Ohio State 41, Nebraska 14