The Buckeyes are 28.5-point favorites over the Wildcats. Plus, picks for the other five games this weekend in the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 5-8 (3-4 National, 2-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 88-95 (36-40 National, 52-55 B1G)
My picks for Tennessee-Georgia and six other games on Saturday outside the Big Ten can be found here
Big Ten games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
UCLA v. Washington (-4.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX
This season looked like it was going to be a lost cause for UCLA in Deshaun Foster’s first season as head coach. The Bruins have come out of hibernation lately, winning their last three games.
During their winning streak, Ethan Garbers has thrown eight touchdown passes. Last week running back T.J. Harden had his best performance of the season, rushing for 125 yards against Iowa.
Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After going to the national title game last year, Washington is on the verge of missing a bowl game this season. The Huskies have five wins with two games remaining, and their final game of the regular season is at Oregon, so we might as well chalk that game up as a loss. Washington has a proud defense, their issue is Will Rogers just doesn’t have much to work with on offense.
I really like how UCLA is playing of late. Even if Washington is able to gut out a win here, they aren’t going to blow out the Bruins. Garbers is playing with a lot of confidence, and last week the running game got going for the first time this year. UCLA goes into Seattle and wins their first battle with the Huskies as Big Ten teams.
UCLA 24, Washington 20
Michigan State v. Illinois (-2.5) – 2:30 p.m. ET – FS1
The bye week came at the perfect time for Illinois. The Fighting Illini have lost two straight games, as they were routed by Oregon before returning home to lose a tight matchup with Minnesota. What will help Illinois in this game is quarterback Luke Altmyer makes a lot of smart decisions with the football, only throwing three picks this year.
Unlike Illinois and Altmyer, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is a turnover machine, throwing 11 interceptions so far this season. The Spartans are also on a two-game losing streak, most recently being decimated by Indiana 47-10 two weeks ago.
Illinois is just a better team on both sides of the football. I’m actually surprised this line is as short as it is. Michigan State is still adjusting to life under Jonathan Smith and working to put the pieces in place for the future. The Fighting Illini play smarter in this game and should end up winning by at least a touchdown.
Illinois 28, Michigan State 17
No. 4 Penn State (-28.5) v. Purdue – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
We just saw what Ohio State did to Purdue last week in Columbus. Despite this game being in West Lafayette, that shouldn’t change the fact that the Boilermakers are likely in for another beatdown. Along with Penn State being way more talented, usually teams struggle the week after taking on the Buckeyes since the physicality takes a lot out of teams.
The only factor working against Penn State is how much they’ll get up for a game like this. In past years I might be worried about it since the Nittany Lions might be left out of a four-team playoff. That isn’t the case this year with the expansion to 12 teams. Penn State knows they are in line for a home playoff game in State College, so expect them to handle their business here.
Penn State 41, Purdue 7
Nebraska v. USC (-8.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – FOX
A promising start to the season for both teams have turned in two big messes. USC has lost five of the last six games, and during the bye week Lincoln Riley announced UNLV transfer Jordan Maiava would be replacing Miller Moss at quarterback. Even though Maiava showed promise at UNLV last year, this feels like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The problems of the Trojans are deeper than just a quarterback change.
Nebraska is in danger of missing a bowl game for what feels like the 43rd straight year. Dylan Raiola’s hot start seems like forever ago, with the freshman throwing five interceptions over the last three games. At least Raiola and the Cornhuskers had last week off to try and reset and focus on earning the sixth win they have been lusting after for years.
What Nebraska does have is a tough defense that should cause some issues for Maiava. The Cornhuskers are cornfed and about hard work, while USC is driven by glitz and glamour. Give me the team that feels like they’ll care more in this game. I just don’t get that vibe from USC.
Nebraska 27, USC 24
Rutgers v. Maryland (-5.5) – 6:00 p.m. ET – FS1
It wasn’t pretty but Rutgers was able to get back in the win column in Athan Kaliakmanis’ revenge game, beating Minnesota 26-19. The victory moved the Scarlet Knights closer to bowl eligibility, now needing just one more win to qualify. If Rutgers can get running back Kyle Monangai back this week, they’ll be even more dangerous.
While Maryland tried really hard last week at Oregon, the Terrapins never really threatened the Ducks. Now Maryland has to put the trip out west behind them and return home to take on Rutgers. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. is a gunslinger, I just don’t think his style will work well against the solid defense of the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers wins their second in a row after their slide earlier in the season.
Rutgers 23, Maryland 20
No. 1 Oregon (-14.5) v. Wisconsin – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
A night game in Madison used to be terrifying. That isn’t the case anymore. Luke Fickell has had a rough go of it in his two seasons with the Badgers. I know he has had to deal with some significant injuries, but even if Wisconsin was healthy I don’t think they’d be sitting much higher in the conference standings.
Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Just how is Wisconsin going to slow down Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James, and the rest of the Oregon offense? Even if the Badgers are able to get some stops, will they be able to put points on the scoreboard? I highly doubt they’ll be able to do either. The Ducks are the top-ranked team in the country for a reason, and they have just a couple more hurdles to clear before a potential rematch with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Oregon has played in enough tough environments to not be rattled by what they’ll see in Madison. Gabriel continues to state his case to be a Heisman finalist, as the Ducks cruise to another easy victory.
Oregon 38, Wisconsin 17
No. 2 Ohio State (-28.5) v. Northwestern – 12:00 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
I have been vocal about my displeasure with this game being played at Wrigley Field. Even though the venue is interesting, I hate some of the things that will likely been seen during this game.
There is almost no room at the back of one of the end zones, which could lead to some injuries if players run into the back wall. Also, last year the turf for Iowa-Northwestern is dreadful. With Ohio State having so much to play for after this game, I just hope they don’t lose an important player because of something that happens because of the inadequate features or turf.
If we’re being honest, Ohio State should roll in this game. Northwestern is a slightly better Purdue, and we all saw what the Buckeyes did to the Boilermakers last week. Will Howard is in complete control of this offense, completing nearly 75 percent of his passes this year. Jeremiah Smith is a dude, Emeka Egbuka is a savvy vet, and Carnell Tate is emerging. Add in the talented duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and there aren’t many defenses in the country who can slow the Buckeyes down.
Quarterback Jack Lausch could be in for a long day. Lausch was named the starter before the third game of the season, but will likely be missing Bryce Kirtz, who is the most reliable receiver for the Wildcats. Running back Cam Porter is solid, he just doesn’t have that game-breaking ability. Porter is more of a grinder, which doesn’t work well against an Ohio State defense that is tough to crack on the ground.
A perfect game for Ohio State would be to jump out to an early lead and harass Lausch and the Wildcats into making mistakes, allowing the Buckeyes to build a healthy lead so they can rest their starters for most of the second half and keep them out of harm’s way. The Wildcats just don’t have the chops on offense to keep up with the Ohio State machine.
Ohio State 42, Northwestern 10