The action kicks off tonight with Notre Dame-Penn State in the Orange Bowl, followed by Ohio State-Texas on Friday in the Cotton Bowl.
Bowl games ATS: 27-15 (20-10 National, 7-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 151-130 (72-64 National, 79-66 B1G)
There are just three games left in the college football season. So far I’ve been money with my CFP picks, covering six of the eight games to this point, including all four in the quarterfinals. This has been one of MC&J’s best seasons yet, so hopefully we can finish the season with three more covers, along with an Ohio State national title!
College Football Playoff semifinals:
Orange Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame (-1.5) v. No. 6 Penn State – Thursday 1/9 7:30 p.m. – ESPN
The first College Football Playoff semifinal will feature two past national champions looking to re-establish their place as one of the powers of the sport. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions both won national titles back in the 1980s, but have had some ups and downs since then.
This will be the 20th meeting all-time between the schools. The last time Notre Dame and Penn State met was back in 2007 in State College, with the Nittany Lions winning 31-10 on their home turf. The winner on Thursday night will have the edge in the series, as it is currently tied 9-9-1.
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
While Penn State’s path in the playoff has been pretty smooth so far, Notre Dame had to navigate the Sugar Bowl being pushed back a day because of the terrorist attack in New Orleans on New Year’s. The offensive performance from the Fighting Irish against the Bulldogs wasn’t pretty, gaining just 244 yards in the game.
Notre Dame spanned halftime by putting up 17 points in 54 seconds to put Georgia in a hole they couldn’t dig out of. The only major issue for the Fighting Irish heading into this game is the health of running back Jeremiyah Love, who only saw six carries against the Bulldogs after suffering an injury. Head coach Marcus Freeman is optimistic Love will be able to play tonight.
The Nittany Lions are coming off a 31-14 win over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Tom Allen’s defense held Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty in check, with the running back gaining just 104 yards on 30 carries. Along with shutting down Jeanty, Penn State’s defense intercepted quarterback Maddux Madsen three times last Tuesday night.
Nittany Lion quarterback Drew Allar raised his draft stock by throwing three touchdowns in the victory, two of those to Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren. Now many Cleveland Browns fans are hoping Allar reconsiders returning to Penn State next year so the Browns can draft Allar with the second pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Tonight’s game is going to come down to the health of Love, as well as Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Is this the game where the James Franklin that we all know who soils himself in big games shows up, or does he wait to fall apart in the title game? I just like Notre Dame a little more in this game.
The Fighting Irish have the tools in the secondary to slow down Allar and Warren, putting more pressure on running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. In a gritty game, Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame secure their spot in the title game next Monday in Atlanta.
Notre Dame 24, Penn State 17
Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State (-5.5) v. No. 5 Texas – Friday 1/10 7:30 p.m. – ESPN
Imagine telling Buckeye Nation after the loss to Michigan that after two rounds of the College Football Playoff Ohio State would be the hottest team in the country, and the favorite to win it all. Buckeye fans would have called you crazy after seeing the unimaginative offensive game plan Ryan Day and Chip Kelly came up with against the Wolverines.
Since then the game plan has been simple: Get the football to Jeremiah Smith. The freshman wide receiver became the fifth player to put up at least 175 yards receiving in a CFP game, going for 187 yards on seven catches in the victory over Oregon.
It’s not just the offense that has turned the corner after the Michigan game. The Ohio State defensive line has been a force since failing to record a sack against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes finished with eight sacks in the Rose Bowl, pushing their total on the season to 47 sacks. J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Cody Simon each had two sacks against the Ducks. The intense pressure Ohio State had quarterback Dillon Gabriel under resulted in Oregon not being able to cross midfield until the score was 34-0.
Early on in the Peach Bowl it looked like Texas was going to cruise to victory over Arizona State. The Longhorns opened up a 17-3 first half lead, and were up 24-8 with just over 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Not long after the score is tied and the game is heading to overtime after kicker Bert Auburn missed two field goals late in the fourth quarter. Had it not been for Quinn Ewers finding Matthew Golden in the end zone on fourth down in overtime, Ohio State would be playing Arizona State on Friday night.
Photo by CFP/Getty Images
The Longhorns are a solid team, there’s no doubt about that. They have some playmakers on both sides of the football. It just doesn’t seem like they have that extra gear that Ohio State does, though. If Arizona State can cause problems for the Longhorns, just imagine what the Buckeyes can do.
Plus, Ohio State is definitely ready for the moment, where I’m not so sure Texas is. The Buckeyes already have three wins over Top 5 teams this year, while the Longhorns lost both of their games against Georgia and had an easy draw in the playoff so far.
Normally any other team would be frightened about heading down to take on Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State is one of those teams that won’t flinch at playing the Longhorns in their home state since Buckeye fans travel so well. This team feels like they are on a mission, especially after the loss to Michigan since the senior class knows if they don’t win the national title they won’t have anything to show for their time in Columbus.
Ohio State comes out firing for the third game in a row and earns a spot in Atlanta with another double-digit victory.
Ohio State 37, Texas 21