A couple SEC squads could see their CFP hopes dashed on Saturday. Plus, picks for five other interesting national contests.
Last week ATS: 8-7 (3-4 National, 5-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 83-87 (33-36 National, 50-51 B1G)
Last week started out promising but ended with a fizzle, since it seems like I missed about every game I picked in the evening session. Even with the ugly finish, we still were able to gain a game on .500, making two straight weeks with at least a positive record.
With a number of weeks left in the regular season to do some damage, we are hoping to make it a third-straight week with more winners than losers.
National games
No. 4 Miami (FL) (-10.5) v. Georgia Tech – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
The Hurricanes have been playing with the food a bit recently. Miami went back-and-forth with Louisville a few weeks ago before securing a 52-45 win. Last week the Hurricanes found themselves trailing Duke before going on a 36-3 run to end the game and cover against the Blue Devils. Cam Ward continued to state his case to be a Heisman Trophy finalist, throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns in last week’s win.
Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images
Georgia Tech started the season on a high note by beating Florida State over in Ireland. The win doesn’t look nearly as impressive since now we know just how terrible the Seminoles are. Quarterback Haynes King has missed the last two games with an injury. The Yellow Jackets lost both of those games, putting up just 19 points in losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. Even if King is healthy enough to go, I’m not convinced Georgia Tech has enough pop to keep pace with an explosive Miami offense.
One thing I do know is head coach Mario Cristobal will kneel the clock out as soon as he has the chance to do so after last year’s gaffe. Miami received a jolt this week with the first CFP rankings, which have them slotted as the ACC champs, which would give them a bye in the first round. Asking the Hurricanes to win this game by 11 points doesn’t seem like too much.
Miami (FL) 42, Georgia Tech 24
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) v. No. 16 Ole Miss – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
This looks like the type of game Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss often lose. The Rebels enter this game with a ton of confidence after beating Arkansas 63-31 last week. Jaxson Dart had himself a game against the Razorbacks, throwing for 515 yards and six touchdowns. Then again, last year there was a ton of hype surrounding Ole Miss heading into this game. Even I picked the Rebels to cover before Georgia whooped Ole Miss in Athens, 52-17.
What a strange season it has been so far for Carson Beck and Georgia. Beck has had major issues turning the football over this year, throwing three interceptions in three games. Luckily for Georgia they have been able to withstand the turnovers, winning two of those games, and nearly completing a miraculous comeback to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa at the end of September. Even though the Bulldogs are heading towards a spot in the CFP, they don’t feel nearly as unbeatable as they have been over the last few years.
I’m not all that worried about Georgia having to hit the road for this game, since not only did they push Alabama to the limit in Tuscaloosa, they beat Texas 30-15 in Austin last month. Until Kiffin and the Rebels can prove to me they can win a game like this, I’ll have to bet against them. Dart and company just aren’t equipped to handle primetime as Beck and Georgia are.
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 23
No. 17 Iowa State (-2.5) v. Kansas – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Kansas has to be wondering what might have been. The Jayhawks have been in almost every game this year, with five of their six losses coming by six points or less. Many were expecting quarterback Jalon Daniels to have a big year in 2024. Those expectations haven’t materialized, as Daniels has thrown nine interceptions and completed less than 60 percent of his pass attempts.
Iowa State saw their dreams of an undefeated season dashed last week when they were defeated 23-22 by Texas Tech in Ames. Despite the loss, the Cyclones still have a shot at making the College Football Playoff, they’ll just likely need to win the Big 12 to earn their spot in the 12-team tournament. With Colorado also sitting at 4-1 in the conference, Iowa State can’t afford to lose a second-straight game.
I’m probably taking too many road favorites this week, but I just feel like Iowa State has more toughness than Kansas does this year. While the Cyclones did lose a tight game last week, I do like their track record in one-score games this year over what we have seen from the Jayhawks this year. The Iowa State defense forces Daniels into making a few more mistakes, which swing the game in favor of the Cyclones.
Iowa State 27, Kansas 17
No. 23 Clemson (-6.5) v. Virginia Tech – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
I’m really trying to talk myself into taking Virginia Tech in this game, but I just can’t do it. The Hokies have played some close games, with all four of their losses coming by seven points or less.
Last week quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten weren’t able to play in the overtime loss to Syracuse. I’ll assume both will be able to play this week, but the Virginia Tech offense has a tough time throwing the football, allowing Clemson to load up against the run.
Unless Miami or SMU lose somewhere in the last month, Clemson is going to be kicking themselves for dropping last week’s game to Louisville. Running back Phil Mafah was outstanding in the loss, racking up 170 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has also been really good most of the season, tossing 21 touchdowns and throwing just three picks.
Lane Stadium doesn’t quite have the mystique it used to. The Hokies even lost to Rutgers in Blacksburg this year. Clemson is better in all areas than Virginia Tech is and should be able to bounce back from last week’s loss and win this game by at least a touchdown.
Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 20
No. 20 Colorado (-3.5) v. Texas Tech – 4:00 p.m. ET – FOX
I know I have been all over road favorites this week. In this game I’m going to slide over to the home underdog side. Texas Tech earned a huge win last week, beating Iowa State in Ames in some gnarly weather conditions. Running back Tahj Brooks continued his streak of rushing for at least 100 yards in each game he has played in this season, finishing the upset of the Cyclones with 122 yards.
Deion Sanders and Colorado can smell the Big 12 Championship Game, entering this week with a 4-1 record in the conference. Even though networks are hoping the Buffaloes find their way into the playoff, I know this Colorado squad still has some faults. What do they do if Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are shut down? The Buffaloes don’t have the talent in the trenches to run the football with consistency.
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images
Texas Tech and Behren Morton have the offense that can keep up with Colorado. All the Red Raiders need to do is get a few stops on defense. Plus, don’t sleep on weird things happening in Lubbock.
This could be a situation where Colorado comes out sleepy after a bye week, while Texas Tech is riding high after their win over Iowa State. I’m expecting plenty of points here, so I’ll take the points with the home team that’ll be looking for a second straight win over a ranked team.
Texas Tech 37, Colorado 34
No. 11 Alabama (-2.5) v. No. 15 LSU – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Both teams in this game had last week off to digest their results from the previous week. Alabama had their best performance of the season, shutting out Missouri 34-0. What the Crimson Tide did right is get their running game going, racking up 271 yards on the ground against the Tigers. The easy win was necessary after the previous four games for Alabama were decided by seven points or less.
LSU has had to sit with a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M, where they had no answer for the Aggies and Marcel Reed on the ground in the second half. The lack of a rush defense is definitely a concern this week against a Crimson Tide squad that is riding high after gashing Missouri. While Death Valley at night is a setting opponents fear, I don’t think Alabama is quite as shook by it since the Crimson Tide are in so many prime time games in raucous environments.
In a game that’s a coin flip, I’ll go with the team that I think is better. I’m not sold on LSU having the defense to slow down the Crimson Tide. Even if the Tigers are able to bottle up Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, they still have to deal with Jalen Milroe finding freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams. In a game that likely eliminates the loser from playoff contention, Alabama keeps hope alive at least for a little longer.
Alabama 31, LSU 24
No. 9 BYU (-3.5) v. Utah – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
Utah is down bad right now. In a season where the Utes were supposed to challenge for the Big 12 crown and a CFP spot, they have lost four games in a row, failing to score 20 points in any of those contests. It sounds like the college career of Cam Rising is now officially over after four decades since Rising has been ruled out for the rest of the season due to injury, leaving Isaac Wilson to take the snaps behind center.
The Holy War is now in the Big 12. What a time to be alive. The last time these rivals met was back in 2021 when BYU snapped Utah’s nine-game winning streak with a 26-17 win. Now the Cougars are undefeated and currently are the favorite to win the Big 12 and secure a first round bye in the playoff. The stats from BYU won’t blow you away this year, they just have a knack for putting so far this season to avoid suffering any losses.
I think this might be the week where BYU’s luck runs out. Coming off a bye, Utah could take some time to make Wilson more comfortable running the offense. The Utes have some nice pieces to go along with Wilson in running back Micah Bernard and tight end Brant Kuithe.
This has the feeling of a contest where Utah plays their best game of the season to upset their in-state foe. After forcing turnovers for most of the season, BYU commits some this week, which ends up being their downfall.
Utah 23, BYU 20