Plus, predictions for all the other games this week involving Big Ten teams.
Last week ATS: 10-8 (3-3 National, 7-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 23-18 (6-5 National, 17-13 B1G)
Like our first week of the season, it’s hard to be upset with a winning week. Of course it would have been great if Arkansas covered in overtime against Oklahoma State after that game was close. Other than that bad beat, there was a lot to be happy with when it comes to our picks last week.
Hopefully even more winners are on tap this week.
B1G games
No. 4 Alabama (-15.5) v. Wisconsin – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
You have to wonder if Luke Fickell wishes he was still at Cincinnati. Even though the Badgers are 2-0 so far this season, they have looked very mediocre, beating Western Michigan and South Dakota by 14 points each.
The problem is Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo seem hellbent on throwing the football, and that’s not who Wisconsin is. Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke has thrown for just 406 yards and a touchdowns in his first two starts in Madison.
Imagine the murmurs we would be hearing from Tuscaloosa if the Crimson Tide didn’t score 28 points in the fourth quarter of their 42-16 win against South Florida last week. Obviously Alabama is loaded with talent, they just aren’t going to be quite the same buzzsaw this year as we saw while Nick Saban was in charge. Not saying Kalen DeBoer won’t be successful as Saban’s successor, it is just going to take some time to put his stamp on the team.
I wonder if Fickell was holding a lot back in the first two games since he knew his team could beat their first two opponents without revealing much to the Crimson Tide. While I’m not bold enough to predict the Badgers pulling the upset, they’ll at least provide some resistance in this game. Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking, providing the home team with a little extra juice to keep this contest within two touchdowns.
Alabama 31, Wisconsin 21
Arkansas State v. No. 17 Michigan (-23.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Michigan lost a lot from last year’s title team, most notably their cheating coordinator Connor Stalions, and it is showing. After the Wolverines were curb-stomped by Texas in their own building last week, it is looking like Michigan is heading towards three or four losses this season.
This won’t be one of those games they lose, though. Sherrone Moore’s team takes out some of their frustrations on Arkansas State on Saturday.
Michigan 44, Arkansas State 13
Central Michigan v. Illinois (-19.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – Peacock
Central Michigan just lost to Florida International 52-16 in a game where quarterback Joe Labas threw five interceptions. Now imagine what the Fighting Illini are going to do to Labas and the Chippewas.
In last week’s impressive win over Kansas, Illinois forced the Jayhawks into four turnovers. The offense of the Fighting Illini still has some work to do but quarterback Luke Altmyer is starting to form a connection with former UTSA and Ole Miss wide receiver Zakhari Franklin, who had nine catches for 99 yards last week in the win.
Illinois shouldn’t have a problem winning this one by at least three touchdowns.
Illinois 38, Central Michigan 10
No. 9 Oregon (-16.5) v. Oregon State – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX
This game not being a conference matchup and being played in the middle of September and not the end of November is going to be really weird to me. Even though Oregon hasn’t looked great to start the season, the only thing that matters is they are 2-0.
Last week the Ducks edged a Boise State team that has the potential to make the College Football Playoff as the top Group of Five team. Dillon Gabriel has only missed on 11 of his 70 pass attempts this year, so he has been extremely accurate even though the majority of his throws are shorter passes.
Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This is definitely a season of change for Oregon State. Gone are most of their conference mates, their head coach, quarterback, and much more. Even with all the losses, the Beavers have handled their business in their first two games of the season. Last week Oregon State went on the road and shutout San Diego State 21-0.
Will Oregon State win this game? No. What the Beavers will do is add to some of the frustrations of the Ducks by keeping Oregon from running away with this game. The added motivation of Oregon State at playing their in-state rival who moved on to greener pastures will help the Beavers at least cover here.
Oregon 38, Oregon State 28
No. 18 Notre Dame (-9.5) v. Purdue – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Purdue must be excited to start their 2024 season. I’m not counting their season opener against Indiana State since the Boilermakers weren’t challenged at all in the 49-0 win. Then last week Purdue had a bye week since I guess the schedule makers thought they needed to mentally refocus after the clash with the Sycamores. Hudson Card was outstanding in the opener, completing 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns.
I bet Notre Dame wishes they had a bye last week. Instead, the Fighting Irish were beaten in South Bend by Northern Illinois. After defeating Texas A&M, Notre Dame probably felt like they were a lock for the playoff. Now the Fighting Irish can’t afford to lose another game, while Marcus Freeman is feeling his seat getting hotter by the second.
One thing about Notre Dame, they at least are familiar with dealing with comical losses under Freeman. I actually think the Fighting Irish rebound a bit this week. The defense gets after Card since they know they don’t have to worry too much about Purdue running the football. Notre Dame should end up winning this one by at least 10 points.
Notre Dame 31, Purdue 17
Washington State v. Washington (-4.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Peacock
We are going to get a real good idea of how good Washington is this week. After feasting on cupcakes Weber State and Eastern Michigan to start the season, the Huskies will see the competition ramp up when they square off with their rival in Seattle at Lumen Field. I do like what Jedd Fisch has cooking on offense with quarterback Will Rogers and running back Jonah Coleman. Add in a stout defense and the Huskies could make some noise in their first Big Ten season.
After Cam Ward transferred to Miami, Washington State has turned to John Mateer at quarterback. So far this season Mateer has thrown for six touchdowns and added two more on the ground. As excited as the Cougars are after last week’s win over Texas Tech bumped their record to 2-0, I think the Huskies are a little more complete team than the boys from Pullman.
Washington heads into their first Big Ten game next week with a 3-0 record.
Washington 28, Washington State 20
Nevada v. Minnesota (-16.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Nevada actually hasn’t been too bad to start the season, pushing SMU and Georgia Southern to the limit with a win over Troy sandwiched in between those loses. Minnesota was able to boost quarterback Max Brosmer’s confidence with an easy 48-0 win over Rhode Island last week.
The Golden Gophers are still having some problems running the football, so I’m not comfortable laying this many points against a Nevada team that has been playing tight games to start the season.
Minnesota 27, Nevada 14
Prairie View A&M v. Michigan State (-40.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Since I saw a line for this game I have to pick it. Michigan State found something with the connection between Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh in last week’s win over Maryland. The Spartans continue their early season improvement under new head coach Jonathan Smith with an easy win over Prairie View A&M.
Michigan State 56, Prairie View A&M 7
Troy v. Iowa (-22.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Maybe Iowa should put Kirk Ferentz back on suspension since things went so well with Ferentz at home in the season opener. Last week the Hawkeyes were in control of El Assico before Iowa State mounted a second half comeback. Running back Kaleb Johnson has been a beast for Iowa in the first two games, cracking 100 yards in both contests, including 187 yards against the Cyclones last week.
Troy has struggled to find their footing in their first two games, losing to Nevada and Memphis following Jon Sumrall moving on to Tulane after last season. I know Iowa has had their problems offensively, but I think the Hawkeyes will wear down the Trojans in this one. Much like in their opener, Iowa pulls away in the second half and puts last week’s loss behind them.
Iowa 37, Troy 10
Indiana (-3.5) v. UCLA – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Would you have thought two weeks ago that Indiana would be a favorite in this game? The Hoosiers are loving life under new head coach Curt Cignetti, winning their first two games by a combined score of 108-10. Running the offense is Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, while Justice Ellison is doing work on the ground, rushing for 185 yards and two scores in the first two games.
Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
UCLA was underwhelming in their season opener at Hawai’i. New head coach DeShaun Foster and the Bruins had last week off following the 16-13 win over the Rainbow Warriors. If UCLA wants to have any shot of winning this game, they’ll need to run the football better this week. After running for over 800 yards last season, T.J. Harden only was able to gain nine yards on nine carries in the opener.
Despite their struggles against Hawai’i, I still like UCLA in this game. Indiana’s wins came against two really weak opponents, and they’ll be having to make the trip out west to take on a team that’ll want to impress in their first Big Ten game. I really think this is a game that isn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter. In the end, UCLA wins by a field goal.
UCLA 27, Indiana 24
Northern Iowa v. Nebraska (-28.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Much like Michigan State’s game earlier this week, I’m only picking this one because I saw a line for it. Normally, I wouldn’t look too hard at FCS v. FBS matchups. Nebraska has handled their business so far this season, and Kurt Warner ain’t walking through that door for Northern Iowa.
Huskers roll in this one.
Nebraska 51, Northern Iowa 10
Eastern Illinois v. Northwestern (-24.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Can Northwestern even score 24 points? The Wildcats are also making a change at quarterback, so their already awful offense could somehow get even worse. Eastern Illinois has a little better time this week than they did in their opener against Illinois when they lost 45-0.
Northwestern 27, Eastern Illinois 7
Maryland (-2.5) v. Virginia – 8:00 p.m. ET – ACC Network
This battle between former ACC foes could end up being a wild one. Maryland looked like they were heading towards 2-0 before Michigan State mounted a comeback last week to beat the Terrapins 27-24. A little later on Saturday, Virginia erased a second half deficit against Wake Forest to beat the Demon Deacons 31-30 to run their record to 2-0 this season.
One of the best receivers in the country this year has been Maryland’s Tai Felton, who has caught 18 passes for 330 yards and three touchdowns through the first two games. The Terps have needed Felton to be huge since they haven’t been able to run the football with Roman Hemby, but at some point Hemby is going to start breaking some runs.
Not that I watch a ton of Virginia football, it’s just whenever I check in on the Cavaliers it seems like quarterback Anthony Colandrea is an adventure. Sometimes Colandrea is doing some big things, while others he is making some dumb mistakes. Despite their loss to Michigan State last week, I just feel like Maryland is the smarter and safer team in this one.
Maryland 38, Virginia 31