The Buckeyes and Ducks meet for the second time in the CFP and the third time in the Rose Bowl. Plus, picks for the other three CFP quarterfinals.
Bowl record ATS: 18-13 (16-9 National, 2-4 B1G)
Season record ATS: 142-128 (68-63 National, 74-65 B1G)
College Football Playoff quarterfinal games:
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State (-10.5) v. No. 3 Boise State – Tuesday Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
The Nittany Lions barely had to break a sweat in their first-round game against SMU, taking a 28-0 lead into halftime in the 38-10 win over the Mustangs. Penn State picked off three Kevin Jennings passes, returning two of them for touchdowns. With building such a big lead early they kept the offense pretty vanilla. Drew Allar finished with just 127 yards passing. Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 160 yards on the ground.
While it’s not a surprise Boise State made the CFP as the Group of Five qualifier, it was a surprise they earned a bye as the third-highest-ranked conference champion. The extra time off has given running back Ashton Jeanty time to recharge his batteries. The Heisman Trophy runner-up has had an outstanding season, rushing for nearly 2,500 yards and 29 touchdowns. Jeanty has cracked 200 yards on the ground in six games this season.
Boise State won’t be scared in this game. The Broncos went into Eugene early in the season and nearly beat Oregon. One thing we have to remember is that was before the Ducks really hit their stride. The defense of the Nittany Lions is a whole different animal. They’ll make Jeanty earn every inch on Tuesday night. Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen gets overlooked but he hasn’t had a defensive end like Abdul Carter breathing down his neck.
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The Broncos hang around for the first half but the Nittany Lions pull away a bit after halftime. Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren has a big game after he didn’t have to do a whole lot against SMU. This feels like a game Penn State wins by two touchdowns in the final college football game of 2024.
Penn State 34, Boise State 20
Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas (-13.5) v. No. 4 Arizona State – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET – ESPN
The Cinderella story of the College Football Playoff feels like Arizona State. The Sun Devils were 3-9 in 2023 in Kenny Dillingham’s first season in Tempe and were picked to finish last in the Big 12 before the season. After suffering their second loss of the season in October at Cincinnati, Arizona State reeled off six straight wins on their way to winning the conference. Running back Cam Skattebo was a huge reason for the improvement of the Sun Devils, totaling over 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns.
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The opener for Texas in the playoff was a bit of a weird game. The Longhorns jumped out to a 28-10 lead before letting Clemson back in the game. Despite winning 38-24, I wasn’t all that impressed with what I saw from Texas. It probably doesn’t help that Quinn Ewers is dealing with a gimpy ankle.
There’s no question the Longhorns have the edge in the trenches in this game. What has me hesitant to back Texas here is some of the decisions Ewers makes. Arizona State is a very opportunistic team and could force some turnovers. Even though everyone will be focused on Skattebo, I feel like the dynamic running back can still make some plays to keep the Sun Devils in the game. Dillingham’s team will be playing with nothing to lose as the heavy underdog, which helps them keep the final score inside two touchdowns.
Texas 37, Arizona State 27
No. 7 Notre Dame v. No. 2 Georgia (-1.5) – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET – ESPN
Notre Dame and Georgia will square off in a game that feels like it won’t end until 1 am on the East Coast since apparently the Sugar Bowl always wants to make sure people fall asleep during it. The Fighting Irish had little trouble with Indiana in South Bend, beating the Hoosiers 27-17 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. The only thing that went wrong for Marcus Freeman’s team is defensive lineman Rylie Mills was injured during the game and won’t play the rest of the season. Jeremiyah Love set the tone early in the first quarter with a 98-yard touchdown run to open the scoring.
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Georgia has been barely getting by opponents recently. After the Bulldogs survived an eight overtime thriller against Georgia Tech, they needed overtime in the SEC Championship Game to beat Texas and secure a bye. Georgia desperately needed the extra time off since quarterback Carson Beck was injured against the Longhorns, leaving Gunner Stockton to take the snaps for the rest of the season. Stockton played a little bit against Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech early in the season before being thrust into action in Atlanta.
This clash in New Orleans is going to come down to experience at quarterback. Notre Dame has it with Riley Leonard, while Georgia doesn’t now that Beck has been ruled out. Against a Fighting Irish defense that is one of the top units in the country, Stockton will likely struggle on Wednesday night. The Bulldogs haven’t looked like the same team we have become used to over the last few years, and that is understandable with all the turnover they have had with players going to the NFL. Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts picks off a pass as the Fighting Irish secure a spot in the semifinal.
Notre Dame 28, Georgia 17
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) v. No. 1 Oregon – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET – ESPN
If you thought there was a lot of hype surrounding the first meeting between these two college football powerhouses, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The Bucks and Ducks meet for the third time in the Rose Bowl, but this time there is so much more on the line in Pasadena. The winner will move on to the Cotton Bowl next week to take on the winner of the battle between Texas and Arizona State in the Peach Bowl earlier on Wednesday.
Oregon enters this game as the only undefeated FBS team left, as well as the owner of a 14-game winning streak, which is the longest active streak in the country. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel carved up the Ohio State secondary in the first meeting, throwing for 341 yards and two touchdowns in the 32-31 win in Eugene. Gabriel went on to finish third in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Colorado’s Travis Hunter and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. The Buckeyes can’t just key on Gabriel since Oregon has running back Jordan James, who ran for 1,253 yards and 15 touchdowns this year.
While there was plenty of criticism of Ohio State’s offensive game plan against Michigan, not much fault can be found with the defense since the first meeting with the Ducks. Over the last six games, Ohio State has allowed just seven touchdowns, with none of those scores coming through the air. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ has dialed up the pressure, allowing defensive ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer to do what they do best. Get after the quarterback. The Buckeye defense will have to be aggressive but disciplined since Gabriel can make plays with his legs to escape pressure. If Ohio State can keep Gabriel in the pocket and get in his sight lanes, they should be in good shape.
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One thing that’s hard to do when teams are so closely matched like Ohio State and Oregon is beat the same team twice in the season. This game is going to come down to which coach makes the better adjustments headed into the game and adds some wrinkles to their game plan. It sounds like Ryan Day got the message about trusting in his players after the Michigan game since the Buckeyes looked like a completely different team against Tennessee. Step one for the offense is going to be to feed wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith, since there is no question he is the best player on the field. Step two is to repeat step one. Even if Oregon tries to take away Smith, Will Howard has Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate at his disposal, and tight end Gee Scott Jr. even made a couple of big catches against the Volunteers.
Not only is the setting for this game going to be beautiful, we are going to be in for another entertaining tilt between two of the best teams in the country. Ohio State gets some revenge for the loss in Eugene, which might have not even been a loss had Oregon head coach Dan Lanning not found a loophole in the rules by intentionally taking a penalty to waste some clock late in the game. Day snaps a two-game losing streak against the Ducks and Ohio State moves on to the Cotton Bowl next week.
Ohio State 31, Oregon 27