Even though there is only one game between ranked teams outside the Big Ten this week, plenty will be on the line across the country.
Last week ATS: 10-6 (6-2 National, 4-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 75-80 (30-32 National, 45-49 B1G)
After two weeks of ugly picks I was starting to wonder if I lost my fastball. Last week restored some of my confidence, as I was able to push my season record closer to .500. Now to continue to make gains as the calendar turns to November, meaning the end of the regular season isn’t too far off.
National games
No. 19 Ole Miss (-6.5) v. Arkansas – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Ole Miss was able to rebound from their overtime loss to LSU with a hard-fought 26-14 win over Oklahoma last week. The Sooners made the Rebels work for the victory, leading 14-10 at halftime before a Jaxson Dart touchdown pass early in the third quarter gave Ole Miss the lead for good. Dart has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country so far this season, throwing for at least 260 yards in every game. Dart’s favorite target this year has been Tre Harris, who is already approaching 1,000 receiving yards.
Last week Arkansas decimated Mississippi State 58-25 in Starkville. Taylen Green entered the matchup with the Bulldogs with six passing touchdowns. The Boise State transfer nearly matched that mark by tossing five touchdowns against Mississippi State, while adding another score on the ground. The issue for the Razorbacks this year is they haven’t been able to build off their wins. Following a win over Auburn they lost to Texas A&M. Then after an upset of Tennessee they lost to LSU.
I have a feeling the trend for Arkansas will continue since Ole Miss knows they have no room for error the rest of the season, especially with a matchup with Georgia on deck next week. The Rebels aren’t just all offense, as they have the top scoring defense in the country. The Razorbacks will wish they would have saved some points from last week’s victory to use this week.
Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 20
Vanderbilt v. Auburn (-6.5) – 12:45 p.m. ET – SEC Network
Can Diego Pavia leave Jordan-Hare Stadium with a win for the second straight season? Last year Pavia and New Mexico State beat the Tigers 31-10. Hugh Freeze must be having nightmares this week heading into Saturday’s game with the versatile quarterback. The Commodores have been playing really good football this year, beating Alabama and taking Missouri and Texas to the limit in close losses.
Auburn has some serious problems on offense. The Tigers haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game since mid-September. Quarterback Payton Thorne doesn’t make good decisions with the football, already throwing seven interceptions this season, pushing his career total to 41 picks. Auburn will likely come into this game feeling good about themselves after rolling up 500 yards against Kentucky last week, but the Wildcats have fallen on hard times after upsetting Ole Miss.
I just like the way Vanderbilt has been playing this season a lot more than what I have seen from Auburn. The Commodores are on the brink of bowl eligibility, as a win over Auburn would get them to six victories. There is a bit of a worry about the close loss to Texas taking a lot out of Vanderbilt, but Clark Lea’s team was in a similar situation when they beat Alabama. The next week the Commodores went on the road and beat Kentucky. Pavia does the double and frustrates Freeze and Auburn fans for a second straight season.
Vanderbilt 24, Auburn 21
Florida v. No. 2 Georgia (-16.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Speaking of Georgia, the Bulldogs get back to work after having last weekend off following their win at Texas. The game against the new SEC member was very odd, with quarterback Carson Beck throwing three interceptions.
The defense really stepped up for Beck against a potent Texas offense a couple weeks ago, holding the Longhorns to 259 yards in Austin. Luckily for Georgia, they had Trevor Etienne on the field, as the Florida transfer running back found the end zone three times against Texas.
Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
It has been an extremely strange season for the Gators. After losing to Miami and Texas A&M early, Florida has won three of their last four games. Unfortunately for Billy Napier, quarterback Graham Mertz was injured against Tennessee, leaving freshman D.J. Lagway as the starter for the rest of the season.
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (I know they don’t call it that anymore and I don’t care) kicks off an insanely difficult stretch for the Gators that will see them take on Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss after this week’s game. Even though they finish the season with Florida State, it’s hard to see the Gators finding two wins the rest of the way to become bowl eligible.
Georgia hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but it feels like this week could jumpstart the team since they have had some extra time to focus on the closing stretch of the regular season. We also are likely to see a little extra juice from Etienne since he’ll be going up against his old team. Beck doesn’t make nearly as many mistakes as we saw from him against Texas while the defense harrasses Lagway in Jacksonville.
Georgia 38, Florida 17
Texas Tech v. No. 11 Iowa State (-13.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
The Cyclones will be looking to keep pace with BYU at the top of the Big 12 standings. With a win, Iowa State will move to 5-0, matching the conference record of the Cougars. Matt Campbell’s team was taken to the limit by UCF two weeks ago, needing a fourth quarter comeback to beat the Knights and stay undefeated. Rocco Becht’s one-yard touchdown run with less than a minute to go was the deciding score in the game. Wide receiver Jaylin Noel tied a season-high with eight catches, while his 153 yards receiving was his best output of the year.
Texas Tech might not be all that good but at least they are exciting. Much like the Red Raider squads we have seen over the years, defense is definitely optional. In five of their eight games so far this season, Texas Tech has given up at least 30 points. The combination of quarterback Behren Morton and running back Tahj Brooks have at least been able to make up for some of the team’s deficiencies on defense. Brooks has to be licking his chops after seeing UCF roll up 354 yards on the ground two weeks ago.
At some point Iowa State is going to get tripped up. While I’m not daring enough to call for Texas Tech to be the team to hand the Cyclones their first loss of the season, I think as we get deeper into the regular season we’ll continue to see Iowa State play with fire. Despite the swiss cheese defense of the Red Raiders, they have enough offense to put a bit of a scare into Iowa State and keep the final score inside two touchdowns.
Iowa State 41, Texas Tech 31
No. 10 Texas A&M (-2.5) v. South Carolina – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Texas A&M looked dead in the water after the first half last week against LSU. Then head coach Mike Elko decided to turn to Marcel Reed after quarterback Connor Weigman was ineffective against the Tigers.
All Reed did was rush for three touchdowns in the first 16 minutes of the second half, giving the Aggies a 28-17 lead. It is unknown if Weigman or Reed will take the snaps for Texas A&M this week, but it seems obvious that Reed is the more dynamic option of the two and will give the Aggies the best chance at staying on top of the SEC.
Which South Carolina squad are we going to get this week? The team that obliterated Oklahoma in Norman, or the version that was listless against Ole Miss? I know the crowd in Columbia will be rocking, I just can’t use that as my only reason for backing the Gamecocks here.
Texas A&M has a ferocious defense that is going to make life miserable for quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Purdue transfer Nic Scourton is one of the premier defensive ends in the country. The Aggies have 11 interceptions on the season, and I see Scourton getting after Sellers and forcing him into making some mistakes that are going to swing the game to keep Texas A&M undefeated in SEC play.
There is always the possibility of a letdown after a big win. Unlike when Texas A&M had Jimbo Fisher coaching, Mike Elko seems to be running a tighter ship than Fisher did. There is a lot of urgency for the Aggies to avoid the letdown here since if they are able to win, they have a non-conference game and a very winnable game against Auburn before they battle Texas in the final game of the regular season. With a short line, I like the Aggies here as they should be able to grind out a win over the Gamecocks.
Texas A&M 28, South Carolina 21
Louisville v. No. 11 Clemson (-10.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
For as much as we make fun of Dabo Swinney, I have to at least give him some credit for rallying his team after Clemson was humbled 34-3 in the season opener against Georgia. Since then, the Tigers have won all six of their games by at least 16 points.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik is looking like the top quarterback prospect that he was coming out of high school, tossing 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions this year. Add in running back Phil Mafah and Clemson can hurt you both on the ground and through the air.
Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images
Louisville is one of the few teams the Tigers have played so far that have the potential to keep pace on offense. Like Klubnik, Tyler Shough has also thrown 20 touchdowns this year. I’m just not convinced the Cardinals have played anyone with a defense as tough as what they’ll see from Clemson.
Laying double digits against Louisville isn’t ideal, but I do think we’ll see a massive effort from the Tigers under the lights at Death Valley after a bye week. Clemson keeps the pressure on Miami and SMU to keep winning and in the mix for the ACC title.
Clemson 37, Louisville 24
No. 18 Pitt v. No. 20 SMU (-7.5) – 8:00 p.m. ET – ACC Network
Prior to the season, who had this game between Pitt and SMU being the only game between ranked teams outside the Big Ten? If you say you did then you are a liar. Both teams are undefeated in the ACC so far this season, and the Panthers enter this game with a perfect 7-0 record.
Last week Pitt victimized former Ohio State quarterback Honda McCord, returning three interceptions for touchdowns in the 41-13 win. The health of quarterback Eli Holstein is in question for this game. If the freshman can’t play, Kevin Yarnell will take the snaps for the Panthers.
SMU closed out a three-game road trip with a 28-27 win over Duke in overtime, needing a stop on the two-point conversion of the Blue Devils to stay undefeated in conference play. Kevin Jennings will have to be better this week for the Mustangs. Last week, Jennings tossed three interceptions, so you know Pitt’s secondary is excited to try and build off their pick party last week.
Even with uncertainty at quarterback for Pitt, I still like the Panthers here. Getting a touchdown and the hook are huge in a game between teams that have habits of playing tight games. This feels like a game that will feature plenty of shenanigans and isn’t decided until late.
Pitt 35, SMU 31