With just two more weeks before conference championship games, more teams are going to see their playoff dreams turn into nightmares.
Last week ATS: 6-8 (2-5 National, 4-3 B1G)
Season ATS: 94-103 (38-45 National, 56-58 B1G)
Last week started off promising before some bad picks in the night session tanked the week’s record. Georgia scored a late touchdown to cover against Tennessee, I should have seen the warning signs with BYU, and it figures Wisconsin would show up for a game where I picked against them.
There are still a lot of games left to be picked over the next few weeks, so I’m buckling down and trying to find some winners so we can get back to .500 before the conference championship games.
National games
No. 9 Ole Miss (-10.5) v. Florida – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
I wouldn’t say Florida saved their season with a win over LSU last week since they are still only 5-5 heading, but they did at least give themselves a better chance at bowl eligibility. The Gators should be able to get to six wins since they play Florida State next week.
DJ Lagway returned from injury last week to throw for 226 yards and a touchdown, but Lagway has struggled with accuracy in his limited time on the field this year, completing less than 60 percent of his passes.
Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images
Ole Miss had a week off to soak in their 28-10 win over Georgia two weeks ago, so I’m not terribly worried about a letdown. Jaxson Dart has been outstanding this season, completing over 70 percent of his passes, finding the end zone 22 times through the air with just four interceptions. If Dart has a strong finish to the regular season he could work his way into consideration to be a Heisman Trophy finalist.
I’m probably going to get stung for going back to the well and doubting the Gators in Gainesville. I just think the Rebels are a much sounder team than LSU, who came into last week’s game coming off a drubbing at the hands of Alabama. Florida is still a flawed team and I don’t see them making it two upsets in a row.
Ole Miss 34, Florida 20
No. 13 SMU (-9.5) v. Virginia – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
SMU is just two wins away from securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Currently Clemson and Miami sit behind the Mustangs with one loss in the conference, so SMU can’t afford to lose a conference game since it would lead to what would likely be a three-way tiebreaker since the three teams haven’t played each other this season. The Mustangs are coming off a 38-28 victory against Boston College last week.
After starting the season with four wins in their first five games, Virginia has now lost four of the last five games. The only win during that span came against a Pitt team that has obviously lost the plot lately. I’m not exactly sure what the Cavaliers do well.
Quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw three interceptions last week against Notre Dame, and has 11 picks on the season. It’s not like the Virginia defense is all that scary either, as they have given up at least 35 points in three of the last four games.
Really the only concern here is SMU having to travel to Charlottesville, but the Mustangs have shown they can win on the road this year, sweeping a three-game road trip against Louisville, Stanford, and Duke last month. It’s not like Scott Stadium is some fortress. SMU continues to roll, beating the Cavaliers by at least 10 points.
SMU 37, Virginia 17
No. 14 BYU v. No. 21 Arizona State (-3.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Right now Arizona State is one of those teams that nobody wants to play right now. The Sun Devils have won five of their last six games, with their latest victory being a 24-14 win at Kansas State last week. This game is critical for Kenny Dillingham’s team since if they are able to beat the Cougars they’ll put themselves in a position to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Running back Cam Skattebo has been one of the most electrifying players in the country this year, totaling over 1,500 all-purpose yards and scoring 13 touchdowns.
BYU’s luck finally ran out last week. The Cougars suffered their first loss of the season on Saturday night, falling 17-13 to Kansas in Provo. I have a feeling that last week’s loss could lead to even more setbacks for BYU since I don’t think the Cougars are as good as their ranking might suggest.
BYU has feasted on some of the worst teams in the Big 12 this year, so they’ll likely struggle to keep pace with Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt. Arizona State leaves the Cougars on the outside looking in when it comes to the Big 12 Championship Game with a win in Tempe on Saturday afternoon.
Arizona State 31, BYU 21
No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) v. Kansas – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Many people might be looking at Kansas here for a number of reasons. The Jayhawks are coming off wins over Iowa State and BYU, and they are also an unranked home underdog against a ranked team. If you look deeper into those points they aren’t as convincing as normal situations.
First, this game isn’t really a home game for Kansas since they’ll be playing this game in Kansas City at the home of the Chiefs. Also, the wins over Iowa State and BYU don’t impress me that much since the Cyclones had just suffered their first loss of the season, while BYU needed help from the refs the previous week to avoid being beaten by Utah.
Photo by Andrew Wevers/Getty Images
Colorado keeps looking better each week. Travis Hunter is the favorite for the Heisman Trophy this year since he plays on both sides of the football and makes a huge impact at both cornerback and wide receiver.
I’m not so worried now about the Buffaloes not being able to run the football since Shedeur Sanders has shown he can do everything the offense needs with his arm. It also doesn’t hurt that Warren Sapp is on the coaching staff since the defensive line of Colorado looks stronger than it showed last season.
By building an early lead, the Buffaloes take away running back Devin Neal, making quarterback Jalon Daniels beat them with his arm, which isn’t his forte.
Colorado 35, Kansas 24
No. 19 Army v. No. 6 Notre Dame (-14.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – NBC
Apparently Notre Dame doesn’t respect the troops. Not only did the Fighting Irish beat up on Navy earlier this year, but they have defeated Army in 14 straight meetings. I still have no idea how Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois in September, but apparently the loss isn’t going to hurt them that much since right now they are projected to host a first-round game in the College Football Playoff.
The Fighting Irish really haven’t been tested in over a month, winning their last five games by at least 18 points.
Most teams would likely be worried about taking on Army and their option attack. Notre Dame probably won’t be flustered by what they see at Yankee Stadium on Saturday night since they have already played Navy this year. The defense of the Fighting Irish has been stout against the run this year, so I’m not all that concerned about their ability to slow down the Black Knights, who have seen their scoring dwindle over the last two games.
Army falls from the ranks of the unbeaten as they are overmatched by a physically superior Notre Dame squad.
Notre Dame 33, Army 14
No. 7 Alabama (-13.5) v. Oklahoma – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Oklahoma’s first season in the SEC is one they’ll desperately want to forget. The Sooners are just 1-5 in conference, and 5-5 overall. If Brent Venables’ team wants to make it to six wins this year they’ll either need to beat the Crimson Tide this week or LSU next week.
The loss to Missouri two weeks ago might be the most painful of the season since the Tigers were able to pick up a Jackson Arnold fumble with 22 seconds to go to score the game-winning touchdown. Oklahoma’s only win since the beginning of October was a 59-14 victory over Maine at the beginning of this month.
Even though Alabama had to play last week, the Crimson Tide essentially had a bye since they played noted powerhouse Mercer. Gotta love those SEC schedules, which are apparently so exhausting you need to recharge the batteries with a cupcake in November. Alabama has regrouped since their loss to Tennessee, winning their last three games by a combined score of 128-20.
If Oklahoma can at least slow down Jalen Milroe on the ground they’ll have a chance at keeping this game close. Milroe is still very suspect throwing the football, so if they can take away his legs that’ll be half the battle. I don’t think the Crimson Tide are going to come in here and roll the Sooners since Oklahoma has too much pride to let that happen. Oklahoma has enough defense to keep the final score within two touchdowns.
Alabama 27, Oklahoma 17
No. 15 Texas A&M v. Auburn – 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
I probably should have known to stop trusting Texas A&M after they beat LSU. The next week I went to the well again and the Aggies burned me when they were destroyed by South Carolina. Now I have to wonder if they are too busy looking ahead to Texas next week.
What concerns me about Texas A&M is their inconsistency at quarterback. Marcel Reed can run like no other, but he struggles throwing the football, which is something he’ll have to do more after running back Le’Veon Moss was injured recently.
Auburn hasn’t done much right this season, as they enter this game with a 4-6 record. At least the Tigers have been competitive in their losses this year, with only one of their six setbacks coming by more than 10 points. Not only does Auburn have a 1,000-yard rusher in Jarquez Hunter, but former Penn State wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith can make some plays if Payton Thorne can get the football to him.
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images
I don’t think Texas A&M is nearly as good as their record indicates, since they haven’t really played any of the top competition in the SEC this year. Not saying that Auburn deserves to be in that conversation, but the Tigers do play hard and stick around in games. This feels like one of those contests where playing at home under the lights is going to be the difference in the game. The Aggies get caught looking ahead to their in-state foe next week.
Auburn 24, Texas A&M 20