The Buckeyes are favored by three touchdowns over the Wolverines. Plus, all the rest of the conference action on the regular season’s final weekend.
Last Week ATS: 12-3 (5-2 National, 7-1 B1G)
Season ATS: 106-106 (43-47 National, 63-59 B1G)
Here I was just hoping to make it to .500 by the end of the regular season, but last week saw me go 12-3 to even up my overall regular season record. Now to capitalize on the momentum from last week and pick some winners before we roll into conference championship weekend next week.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Big Ten games (All games Saturday unless otherwise noted)
Minnesota v. Wisconsin (-1.5) – Friday 12:00 p.m. ET – CBS
The Golden Gophers were so close to an upset last week, losing to Penn State by just a point in Minneapolis. At least Minnesota already has the six wins necessary to earn bowl eligibility, so this week they can focus solely on regaining ownership of Paul Bunyan’s Axe after the Badgers snapped their two-game losing streak to their neighbors to the west last year. Minnesota does a lot of things well, they just aren’t really great at anything, which is why only two of their eight Big Ten games this year have been decided by more than eight points.
Luke Fickell has to be torn about this game. Even though it would be great to beat your rival and gain bowl eligibility, he probably just wants this nightmare of a season to be over. The Badgers have lost four games in a row, with their most recent setback being a 44-25 loss to Nebraska in the first game after firing offensive coordinator Phil Longo. I’m not putting much stock in Braedyn Locke throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Cornhuskers since Wisconsin had to put the ball in the air since they trailed by double digits for most of the game.
Despite playing in Madison, I can’t trust Wisconsin in this game after seeing how they have played over the last month. I know this is a rivalry game, I just don’t feel like there will be much motivation and fight from the Badgers here. Minnesota grinds out another win, halting their two-game losing streak.
Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 17
Nebraska v. Iowa (-5.5) – Friday 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Nebraska and Matt Rhule have to be breathing a huge sigh of relief after beating Wisconsin last week, earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016. The offense of the Cornhuskers was clicking on all cylinders, rolling up 473 yards of offense in the 44-25 win over the Badgers.
Patrick Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola had his best game in a while, crossing 200 yards passing for the first time in a month, and not throwing a pick in a game since late September against Purdue.
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images
I guess it doesn’t really matter if Cade McNamara clears concussion protocol and is able to play on Friday since the offense of the Hawkeyes revolves around Kaleb Johnson. The running back enters this week’s game with nearly 1,500 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Johnson this week he’ll be going up against a Nebraska defense that is solid against the run. Last month the Cornhuskers allowed Ohio State to rush for just 64 yards, and this week they’ll be able to key on Johnson since the Iowa offense doesn’t offer much through the air.
Usually games between these teams come down to the wire, so I’ll gladly take the points.
Nebraska 23, Iowa 20
No. 23 Illinois (-7.5) v. Northwestern – 12:00 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
How Illinois won last week’s game against Rutgers is beyond me. Kudos to the Fighting Illini for never giving up despite losing the lead to the Scarlet Knights with a minute to go. Bret Bielema has now led Illinois to eight wins for the second time in the last three seasons. Luke Altmyer might be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, throwing 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions this year.
Northwestern comes into the Lincoln Log Battle, or whatever they are calling the battle for bragging rights in Illinois, having lost four of their last five games. Take away an overtime win over Purdue and the Wildcats have only reached double figures in one of those four losses, scoring 14 points against Iowa. Northwestern even let offensively challenged Michigan to drop a 50-burger on them last week.
The Wildcats don’t have enough offense to push the Fighting Illini and they don’t have enough defense to keep Altmyer and Illinois from piling on the points.
Illinois 31, Northwestern 14
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7.5) v. USC – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
I’m a sicko who stayed up way too late last Saturday to watch USC-UCLA since I had USC moneyline in a parlay with a couple other late games. Even though the Trojans beat the Bruins they are not a good team. Jayden Maiava had a few moments in his second start of the season, the issue with the UNLV transfer is he is too inconsistent throwing the football. Maiava won’t be able to get away with any mistakes against a Notre Dame defense that is one of the best in the country.
Notre Dame has rebounded from their puzzling loss to Northern Illinois earlier this season, winning all but one game by double digits since. It’s not like Duke transfer Riley Leonard is putting up big numbers, the Fighting Irish are just wearing their opponents out. Running back Jeremiyah Love has 14 rushing touchdowns, and the defense is forcing turnovers and putting their offense in favorable positions. I don’t see that changing against a USC squad that is undisciplined.
The Fighting Irish secure a home playoff game by finishing their regular season at 11-1.
Notre Dame 34, USC 21
Maryland v. No. 4 Penn State (-24.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Penn State almost saw their playoff hopes take a massive hit last week. Luckily for the Nittany Lions they regrouped in time to earn a 26-25 win at Minnesota. I had a feeling the game with the Golden Gophers would be close, I just had no idea it would see Penn State almost lose.
Now the Nittany Lions close out their regular season with a home game against Maryland. By the time of kickoff James Franklin’s team will likely know their fate when it comes to the Big Ten title game, since they’ll be eliminated from contention for the conference crown if Ohio State beats Michigan.
Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images
Maryland doesn’t have a whole lot to play for here, aside from being a spoiler. The Terrapins enter this game at 4-7, having lost their last four games. Wide receiver Tai Felton is the lone bright spot on the team, having caught 92 passes already this season. For as bad as Maryland has been this year, I could see them keeping this game within 24 points.
Franklin might pull his starters early if they build a big enough lead since he’ll have a playoff game to think about, which will likely be in State College, so he doesn’t have to worry about this being the last game for the seniors at home. The Nittany Lions cruise, they just call off the dogs early enough to allow Maryland to stay inside the spread.
Penn State 38, Maryland 17
Rutgers v. Michigan State (-1.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
This line surprised me since Rutgers is the much better team. Michigan State just struggled at home with Purdue, only beating the Boilermakers by a touchdown last week. Even though the Scarlet Knights blew a late lead against Illinois, I still have faith in the Scarlet Knights, especially with running back Kyle Monangai toting the rock.
Plus, I could see the Rutgers defense forcing turnover-prone quarterback Aidan Chiles into mistakes. The Scarlet Knights rebound from last week’s loss by denying Michigan State bowl eligibility.
Rutgers 30, Michigan State 20
Fresno State v. UCLA (-9.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network
Nothing screams Big Ten more than Fresno State-UCLA in late November! What an odd game for the Bruins to end the regular season with. It would have been fun to see UCLA have to make the trek east to take on a conference foe in the elements, but I understand why that wasn’t really possible since many of the other Big Ten members are involved in rivalry games.
Honestly, these two teams are perfect for each other in this game, though. They both have veteran quarterbacks and offenses that struggle to run the football. Each of the four wins this year by UCLA have been by seven points or less, so taking the points here seems like a smart move. The Bulldogs give the Bruins all they can handle in a game where it feels like only about 100 people will be in attendance at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA 27, Fresno State 24
Purdue v. No. 10 Indiana (-28.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Don’t overthink this one. Indiana is gonna be heated after getting routed last week in Columbus. The Hoosiers have been hearing all week how they don’t belong in the playoff after falling 38-15 to the Buckeyes, suffering their first loss of the season.
Curt Cignetti is the type of coach that isn’t going to be quick to call off the dogs, especially since this is his first journey into the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. Indiana will be able to name their score in this one.
Indiana 48, Purdue 10
Washington v. No. 1 Oregon (-18.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Oregon had a bye week last week to recover from their worst performance of the season, barely squeaking by Wisconsin 16-13 in Madison. Dillon Gabriel threw for just 218 yards and an interception against the Badgers. While Gabriel struggled throwing the football, running back Jordan James did a lot of heavy lifting, rushing for 121 yards and the only touchdown of the game for the Ducks.
Oregon was without wide receiver Tez Johnson against Wisconsin, and it’s not known if Johnson will be available to play this week after suffering a shoulder injury in the Michigan game.
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images
Washington also had a bye last week after beating UCLA 31-19 in Seattle two weeks ago. The Huskies are still starting quarterback Will Rogers, but they are mixing in more of Demond Williams Jr. I’m not a fan of the two-quarterback systems, especially when your offense is already having enough trouble moving the football as Washington has throughout the year. The gimmicky rotation of quarterbacks isn’t something you really want to be messing with against a top-tier team like Oregon.
Lanning definitely hasn’t forgotten about the two losses Washington handed to Oregon last season. Even if the Ducks are rolling, don’t expect him to take his foot off the gas, especially because he’ll want to set a tone for his team ahead of next week’s Big Ten Championship Game. The Huskies have struggled to get their offense going all year long and this week will be no different as they won’t be able to keep pace with an Oregon squad that bounces back from a close call against Wisconsin two weeks ago.
Oregon 37, Washington 14
Michigan v. No. 2 Ohio State (-20.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
If Ryan Day can’t win this one, he might as well start packing his bags because he doesn’t have the chops to be Ohio State’s head coach. A win here would mean so much to the Buckeyes. Not only would it snap their three-game losing streak to That Team Up North, it would also earn them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game next week against Oregon in Indianapolis. Whether it would be more beneficial for Ohio State to win that game or go into the playoff as the five-seed is a debate for another day.
This is essentially Michigan’s championship game this year. The Wolverines enter The Game at 6-5, so really the only thing that would redeem their lost season is to beat the Buckeyes on their home turf. Michigan football hasn’t been pretty to watch this year. The quarterback position has been a revolving door. Davis Warren started the season behind center, Alex Orji took over for a few games, then Jack Tuttle made an appearance before Warren returned to the starting role. As if that wasn’t bad enough, video game cover boy Donovan Edwards has been underwhelming all year long.
Really the only issue with Ohio State this year has been their slow starts to games. The last two weeks the Buckeyes have fallen behind 7-0 before reeling off 31 unanswered points in wins over Northwestern and Indiana. Will Howard is rock solid at quarterback, seemingly always making the right read and completing almost 75 percent of his passes.
Aside from the slow starts, the only other thing Buckeye Nation is wanting to see is more from Quinshon Judkins, who has had trouble clearing 30 yards rushing in a number of games in the second half of the season.
This is a massive number for a rivalry game and I’m torn on which way to go. On one hand, Michigan does have a solid defense that could make life difficult for the Ohio State offense. A counterpoint is the Buckeyes and Day have some scores to settle for their losses the last three years. I don’t think Day is going to let up if the Buckeyes get up by a couple scores in this game, which is why I’ll side with Ohio State here. The defense harrasses Warren all game long and forces him into some mistakes which set the Buckeyes up with some short fields which they capitalize on.
In the end, all I really care about is Ohio State winning this game. A cover would just be icing on the cake.
Ohio State 41, Michigan 13