The Longhorns and Aggies put a bow on the college football regular season by squaring off for the first time since 2011.
Last week ATS: 12-3 (5-2 National, 7-1 B1G)
Season ATS: 106-106 (43-47 National, 63-59 B1G)
My picks for all this weekend’s games involving Big Ten teams can be found here.
National games
No. 8 Tennessee (-10.5) v. Vanderbilt – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
This is one of those games where I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vanderbilt win because of how tough they have played some of the better teams on their schedule this year, or I could also see Tennessee blowing the doors off the ‘Dores. The Volunteers are coming off a 56-0 win last week over UTEP, rebounding from the setback against Georgia the week before.
Vanderbilt is one of those teams that loves making games messy. Over their last six games, neither the Commodores nor their opponents have scored 30 points in a game. I’m just not convinced Vanderbilt can hold Tennessee in check in Nashville. The combo of Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson are too much for Diego Pavia to keep pace with.
Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 14
No. 15 South Carolina v. No. 12 Clemson (-2.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Imagine where South Carolina would be if they had been able to beat LSU and Alabama earlier this season. The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, winning their last five games. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has found some rhythm at quarterback, totaling at least 350 yards of offense in each of the last two games.
Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images
Is Clemson deserving of a playoff spot? Probably not. Somehow Dabo Swinney and Cade Klubnik have the Tigers in position to pounce if Miami loses this week. If the Hurricanes fall to Syracuse, Clemson would play in the ACC Championship Game with a shot at a first round bye in the playoff.
Seeing Dabo humbled at home in the Palmetto Bowl would be tremendous cinema. I just trust the Gamecocks and Rocket Sanders here more. South Carolina keeps rolling as they are a little too dynamic for the Tigers.
South Carolina 28, Clemson 24
Auburn v. No. 13 Alabama (-11.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
At least Alabama has a bunch of experience rebounding from a loss this year. The Crimson Tide have lost three games this year, the latest being a 24-3 setback at Oklahoma last week where they looked listless. Jalen Milroe was terrible against the Sooners, throwing three interceptions.
Auburn is coming off a thrilling overtime win against Texas A&M last week. The Tigers aren’t as bad as their record indicates. Running back Jarquez Hunter is a load and wide receivers KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Cam Coleman are capable playmakers.
I could see Auburn winning this game but I’ll play it safe and take the points. Alabama just isn’t sound enough to blow out teams this year. That may sound silly after what they did recently to Missouri and LSU recently but those teams were flawed. Auburn is coming around at the right time.
Alabama 31, Auburn 27
No. 6 Miami (FL) (-10.5) v. Syracuse – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Kyle McCord can impact the playoff race! He’s not going to lead Syracuse to the playoff but he could spoil Miami’s plans. McCord is putting up huge numbers this year, they just aren’t in games that matter since the Orange already have three losses this season. Syracuse does have some weapons on offense that could cause issues for a suspect Miami defense.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I’m just not all that impressed with the Hurricanes. I know Cam Ward is having a great season, the problem is their defense has been leaky throughout the season. Also, I don’t feel great about having to side with Mario Cristobal in a tense game.
I’ll show some love to McCord and back him to earn his biggest win at Syracuse
Syracuse 38, Miami 35
Cal v. No. 9 SMU (-13.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
This feels like one of those sneaky games where a ranked favorite struggles more with an unranked foe more than we were expecting. Cal plays everyone tough, losing their five games by a combined 17 points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has a lot of heart, so expect him to be slinging the football until the very end.
SMU has had an amazing season, putting themselves in position to win the ACC in their first year in the conference. Sometimes the Mustangs can be hard to read since one week they’ll blow out and opponent, then struggle the next week. This Cal team can give them some fits and this has the look of a game that is a one-score game in the fourth quarter.
SMU 30, Cal 23
No. 16 Arizona State (-8.5) v. Arizona – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Much like South Carolina, Arizona State is a team nobody wants to play right now. The Sun Devils are led by electric running back Cam Skattebo, who has rushed for 1,221 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Arizona State has won their last four games, including two tough wins against BYU and at Kansas State in their last two games.
Arizona has the look of a team that has given up on the season. The Wildcats have lost five of their last six games, rarely looking competitive during that span. Noah Fifita has been a disappointment this season, throwing 12 interceptions. It’s a shame talented wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has been wasted this year on a bad team.
Even with this game being in Tucson, I don’t see Arizona playing spoiler here. The Sun Devils know a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game is in their grasp and they’ll come ready to play.
Arizona State 34, Arizona 17
No. 24 Kansas State v. No. 18 Iowa State (-2.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX
How can I not pick a game called Farmageddon? Iowa State has bounced back from their first two losses of the season with two wins, although last week’s victory over Utah was razor-thin. The Cyclones feel like a better version of Kansas State, who I haven’t been very impressed with this year.
I don’t think the Wildcats have enough to win in Ames, so I’ll gladly lay less than a field goal with Iowa State.
Iowa State 31, Kansas State 21
No. 3 Texas (-5.5) v. No. 20 Texas A&M – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
What a game to close out the SEC’s regular season schedule. People around the Lone Star State and beyond have been waiting for these teams to square off, since the last time the Longhorns and Aggies met was back in 2011. Along with bragging rights, the winner of this game will meet Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Last week I had a feeling Auburn would beat Texas A&M. The Tigers made me look smart by outlasting the Aggies in overtime. Even though Texas A&M will have a raucous crowd behind them at Kyle Field, I’m not convinced they can win this game. Marcel Reed is way too inconsistent and if Auburn can make gains on the Aggie defense, there’s no reason Texas can’t do the same.
Quinn Ewers is working through and ankle injury so there is concern there. Not enough to make me pick A&M since Ewers is a gamer and you know as a Texas native he is going to be amped for this one. The adrenaline will allow him to put together a performance that makes Longhorn fans proud.
Texas 34, Texas A&M 23