The action is really starting to heat up, especially in the SEC, as the regular season moves towards November,
Last week ATS: 6-9 (3-5 National, 3-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 65-74 (24-30 National, 41-44 B1G)
Maybe coming back to Ohio will change my luck. In the two weeks I was out in Oregon, I was 10-19 with my picks, erasing any positive gains that were made early in the season. Despite the recent stretch of ugly results, I’m confident I can climb out of the hole I’ve dug myself over the last two weeks, and will be over .500 by the end of the regular season.
A big week here would go a long way in achieving that goal.
National games (All games Saturday unless noted):
No. 17 Boise State (-3.5) v. UNLV – Friday 10:30 p.m. ET – CBS Sports Network
This is a rematch of the 2023 Mountain West Championship Game, which Boise State won 44-20, extending their winning streak over the Rebels to seven games. Both teams are hoping they can earn the Group of Five spot and make the College Football Playoff this year. The only loss for the Broncos came to Oregon, while UNLV’s only setback was a 44-41 overtime loss to Syracuse.
Ashton Jeanty deservedly gets the headlines for Boise State, rushing for 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through the first six games of the season. Jeanty’s touchdown total has already bettered what he recorded last year by three scores, and he is 100 yards away from surpassing his yardage total from 2023. Opposing defenses can’t focus all their attention on Jeanty, as quarterback Maddux Madsen has tossed 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images
It looked like UNLV’s season might be derailed when quarterback Matthew Sluka entered the transfer portal after three games. Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped up in a big way for the Rebels, totaling 14 touchdowns since taking over for Sluka. Even though UNLV has been impressive this year, Jeanty has been running all over the competition this year, and I don’t think the Rebels will be able to slow down the Heisman Trophy candidate.
Boise State 38, UNLV 27
No. 12 Notre Dame (-12.5) v. No. 24 Navy – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Navy enters this game undefeated, winning all six of their games this season by at least 12 points. This isn’t quite the same Midshipmen squad that you have become used to. Blake Horvath has already thrown 10 touchdown passes this year, which is tied for the team’s highest total in quite some time. Horvath is also a threat on the ground, scoring 10 of the team’s 23 rushing touchdowns this season.
Notre Dame has righted the ship after losing to Northern Illinois earlier this season, winning their last five games. During that span, the only team to score more than 14 points against the Fighting Irish was Louisville. I’m still not convinced Riley Leonard can take Notre Dame on a deep run in the College Football Playoff if the Fighting Irish are able to make the playoff.
While Notre Dame hands Navy their first loss of the season, the rushing attack of the Midshipmen controls the clock and keeps the final score inside double digits.
Notre Dame 24, Navy 20
No. 11 BYU v. UCF (-1.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Last week BYU was in danger of suffering their first loss of the season, while UCF ruined Iowa State’s hopes of an undefeated season. The Cougars survived against Oklahoma State in Provo, beating the Cowboys 38-35. BYU used a potent run game to stave off Mike Gundy’s squad, rolling up 255 yards on the ground. LJ Martin had the best game of his college career, rushing for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the victory.
UCF had Iowa State right where they wanted them last week. The Knights led 35-27 heading into the fourth quarter, but Rocco Becht’s 1-yard touchdown run with 30 seconds left thwarted UCF’s upset attempt. The Knights have now lost four games in a row after starting the season 3-0. There’s no doubt UCF can run the football, their problem is they are dreadful throwing the football. Last week Jacurri Brown completed just eight passes for 62 yards in the loss.
Even though BYU has to head to Orlando for this game, I’ll take the team that has shown they can win close games. The Cougars have a solid defense, so they should be able to slow down the running game of UCF enough to keep their perfect record on the season intact ahead of a showdown with Utah in two weeks.
BYU 34, UCF 24
No. 21 Missouri v. No. 15 Alabama (-13.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
This is a matchup between two teams that are underperforming. Alabama has already lost two games this season, leaving them with no margin for error if they want to make the College Football Playoff. Honestly, had it not been for the incredible catch and run by Ryan Williams late in the game against Georgia, the Crimson Tide would be entering this game having lost three of their last four games.
Last week’s 21-17 win over Auburn was nearly a disaster for Missouri. Running back Nick Noel was injured and quarterback Brady Cook had to have an MRI during the game on his ankle before returning to lead two scoring drives in the fourth quarter to lead Missouri to a win in the battle of the Tigers. It has already been announced that Noel will miss this week’s game against Alabama.
Why am I supposed to all of the sudden expect the Crimson Tide to win by at least two touchdowns here? Alabama feels like a team that is playing scared right now. There just isn’t quite the same killer instinct under Kalen DeBoer so far as we saw with Nick Saban as head coach. I know Missouri has their own issues, I just trust the defense of the Tigers to do enough to keep this game from getting out of hand.
Alabama 31, Missouri 23
No. 5 Texas (-18.5) v. No. 25 Vanderbilt – 4:15 p.m. ET – SEC Network
Can lightning strike twice? Vanderbilt scored the upset of the season so far when they beat Alabama in Nashville a week after the Crimson Tide beat Georgia. Now Texas comes to Nashville to take on the Commodores a week after taking on the Bulldogs.
The Longhorns also have a bit of a controversy at quarterback after head coach Steve Sarkisian pulled Ewers from the Georgia game last week in the second quarter, bringing in Arch Manning. Ewers did return to the game in the second half, but it makes you wonder how short the leash is for Ewers, and what his confidence is like after being benched for a bit in such a big game.
Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images
Vanderbilt can’t let this game turn into a shootout since they won’t be able to keep pace with Texas. What the Commodores have to do is keep the football in quarterback Diego Pavia’s hands since the New Mexico State transfer not only makes smart decisions, he is a threat to run the football and move the chains in high-pressure situations.
While Vanderbilt doesn’t have another upset of a top-five team in the cards here, they should be able to keep Texas from turning this into a blowout.
Texas 33, Vanderbilt 21
Florida State v. No. 6 Miami (FL) (-20.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
You have to imagine the Hurricanes are going to be eager to add to Florida State’s woes by blowing them out in this one. The Seminoles are 1-6 and haven’t shown any evidence they will be able to move the football anywhere close to enough to keep up with Miami quarterback Cam Ward.
After three-straight wins that were decided by seven points or less, the Hurricanes get an easy win.
Miami (FL) 44, Florida State 14
No. 8 LSU v. No. 14 Texas A&M (-2.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Who would have thought that LSU and Texas A&M would be the last two undefeated teams left in the SEC conference play? I feel like whenever I’ve picked LSU or Texas A&M games this year, I’ve been on the wrong side of the final result.
Last week I thought the Tigers would have a letdown against Arkansas after their emotional overtime win against Ole Miss. That certainly wasn’t the case, as LSU had no trouble with the Razorbacks. Freshman running back Caden Durham was the workhorse of the victory over Arkansas, finding the end zone three times.
Texas A&M has looked better each week after their loss to Notre Dame in the season opener. After suffering an injury earlier in the year, Connor Weigman is back and has started the last two games at quarterback for the Aggies. Weigman wasn’t at his best against Mississippi State, tossing two interceptions, but I’m not putting a ton of stock in those turnovers since he was probably distracted by all that cowbell in Starkville. This week Weigman will have the 12th Man on his side.
The difference here is going to lie with the defenses. Texas A&M has Purdue transfer Nic Scourton, who can flip the game on any snap, at defensive end. I just don’t see anyone on the LSU defense that can have the impact that Scourton does. It’ll be interesting to see what ends up being redder, the maroon of Texas A&M or Brian Kelly’s face when LSU loses this game.
Texas A&M 30, LSU 20
Cincinnati v. Colorado (-5.5) – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
It’s the battle of former Ohio State running backs in Boulder on Saturday night! Evan Pryor will be suiting up for Cincinnati, and Colorado has Dallan Hayden.
Last week Pryor made the most of his four carries in a 24-14 win against Arizona State, rushing for 67 yards and a score. The issue Pryor has had is he has lacked consistency. Starting with the first game of the season, Pyror has rushed for at least 46 yards and a score in odd numbered games, while failing to rush for 10 yards in even numbered games. Hayden only has 131 yards this year since the Buffaloes have no interest in running the football.
The winner of this game will become bowl eligible. Colorado was on the cusp last year in Deion Sanders’ first year at the school, starting the season 4-2 before losing their last six games. Now Colorado enters this game at 5-2. The Buffaloes won easily last week, beating Arizona 34-7, allowing them to rest Travis Hunter in the second half.
This is the type of game where Hunter could boost his Heisman Trophy campaign with a big performance on ESPN. I like the Buffaloes to win by at least a touchdown since the Bearcats will fade in the second half of the late start as they play at altitude.
Colorado 35, Cincinnati 21