Picks against the spread for Volunteers-Bulldogs, as well as six other fun contests outside the Big Ten on Saturday.
Last week ATS: 5-8 (3-4 National, 2-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 88-95 (36-40 National, 52-55 B1G)
I should have known I was riding with too many favorites last week. Miami, Georgia, and Iowa State were all road favorites I stupidly sided with. I’ll look to get back on track this week with picks for seven national games today, followed by tomorrow’s post of my six predictions for this week’s Big Ten games.
National games
No. 3 Texas (-13.5) v. Arkansas – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Traveling to Fayetteville can be a tricky trip. Just ask Tennessee about what the Razorbacks can do at home. Then again, are the Volunteers really as good as their ranking wants you to think? Since beating Tennessee last month, Arkansas has been destroyed at home by LSU and Ole Miss, with the Rebels rolling up nearly 700 yards of offense two weeks ago.
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
Last week Quinn Ewers played the best game of his college career, throwing for 333 yards and five touchdowns in the 49-17 win over Florida. With Texas as one of three teams in the SEC with just one conference loss, and five others with two losses so far this season in conference play, the Longhorns know they have no margin for error if they want to play in next month’s conference title game, especially with a showdown with Texas A&M on the horizon in two weeks.
Even though Arkansas had a bye last week to digest the loss to Ole Miss, the Razorbacks won’t be able to keep pace with Texas here. I’m not putting much stock in the win over Tennessee since the Volunteers were close to running away with the game before Arkansas scored the final 16 points of the game. If the Longhorns have the Razorbacks on the ropes, Quinn Ewers and company will be sure to finish the job.
Texas 37, Arkansas 14
No. 18 Clemson (-10.5) v. No. 20 Pitt – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
If only Pitt could go up against Kyle McCord every game. After three interception returns for touchdowns in a 41-13 win over the Orange, the Panthers have fallen on hard times over the last two contests, losing to SMU and Virginia. Last week, Eli Holstein and Nate Yarnell combined to complete just 14 of their 35 pass attempts, with Yarnell throwing two interceptions in the loss.
It would have been easy for Clemson to let their loss to Louisville two weeks ago fester. Instead, the Tigers went to Virginia Tech and beat the Hokies 24-14. Phil Mafah did some hard running in Blacksburg, rushing for 128 yards on 26 carries in the victory. Even though he struggled for most of the game, Cade Klubnik still found a way to toss three touchdown passes last week.
I’m not crazy about needing Clemson to win this game by at least 11 points, but I just can’t trust Pitt right now. Pat Narduzzi’s team has looked awful over the last two games, and if Virginia can win in Pittsburgh, I see no reason why a better Clemson team can’t do so. The Tigers add to the recent woes of the Panthers with a two touchdown victory.
Clemson 34, Pitt 20
Utah v. No. 17 Colorado (-11.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Do the Utes have anything left in the tank after having last week’s victory over BYU stolen from them? Utah started third-string quarterback Brandon Rose against the Cougars since Cam Rising has already been ruled out for the rest of the season, and backup Isaac Wilson wasn’t healthy enough to play last week. Rose actually didn’t play all that bad for having to go up against one of the tougher defenses in the country.
Wilson will be back behind center this week, since Rose has joined Rising on the injured list after suffering a leg injury. Along with Rising and Wilson, wide receiver Money Parks and tight end Brant Kuithe won’t play again this season because of injury.
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images
Just when we were all ready to bury Colorado after losses to Nebraska and Kansas State, the Buffaloes have won three straight and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game if they win their final three games of the regular season. The College Football Playoff committee and their television partners have to be salivating at the thought of possibly having Deion Sanders’ team in the playoff.
While the Buffaloes still can’t run the football, they haven’t needed to since Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and the rest of the Colorado offense has been doing more than enough through the air.
What motivation does Utah have here? They had BYU on the ropes last week before the refs found a way to keep the Cougars undefeated. Along with the heartbreaking loss to their in-state rivals, the Utes lost two key receivers. Utah already had a difficult time generating offense, so it’s hard to see them finding enough points on the road against a Colorado defense that has been getting better as the season has moved along.
The Buffaloes keep their hopes of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game alive with an easy victory in Boulder.
Colorado 31, Utah 13
No. 22 LSU (-4.5) v. Florida – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Both these teams enter this week’s game coming off embarrassing losses. LSU was whooped at home by Alabama on Saturday night, while Texas beat Florida 49-17 earlier in the day. The Gators are currently dealing with more questions since it is unknown if quarterback D.J. Lagway will be able to play this week as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Also, even though head coach Billy Napier received a vote of confidence, that could just be lip service if Florida continues to struggle the rest of the season.
I just don’t know why I should be backing Florida in this game. Those will probably be my famous last words since thoughts like they are why a bunch of big buildings with bright lights got built in the middle of the desert in Nevada. At least with LSU we have some semblance of an offense with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and running back Caden Durham.
It’s not like playing in Gainesville changes anything since it has been a while since the Gators have been unbeatable at home. Even if Lagway plays, he won’t be able to make enough plays to keep up with Nussmeier and the Tigers.
LSU 31, Florida 17
No. 23 Missouri v. No. 21 South Carolina (-12.5) – 4:15 p.m. ET – SEC Network
This spread might be the most puzzling of the week for me. Missouri does have questions at quarterback since Brady Cook has been injured. Last week with Cook sidelined, Notre Dame and Arizona State transfer Drew Pyne threw three touchdowns in the 30-23 win over Oklahoma. The Tigers still have playmakers at wide receiver in Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr., so I’m convinced they can still generate some offense if experienced quarterback Pyne has to start again this week.
Right now South Carolina is playing like one of the best teams in the country. The Gamecocks enter this game on a three-game winning streak, soundly beating Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. At some point Shane Beamer’s team is going to fall into old habits and play a tight game.
Missouri feels like a team perfect for that job, especially since many are writing them off because of Cook’s injury. The Tigers have been solid against the run, so the Gamecocks will have a tougher time getting Rocket Sanders and quarterback LaNorris Sellers going on the ground.
I’m not saying Missouri wins, but they are going to give South Carolina all they can handle in this one. For some reason I think this is going to be one of those goofy SEC contests that comes down to the last possession.
South Carolina 27, Missouri 23
No. 7 Tennessee v. No. 12 Georgia (-10.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
This season has been sorta strange for Tennessee. After winning their first four games of the season convincingly, the Volunteers have been sort of plodding along since losing to Arkansas last month.
Last week saw Tennessee win their first game by more than 10 points since beating Kent State 71-0 in September. Then again, the 33-14 win came against Mississippi State, so it’s not like the Volunteers were taking on the cream of the crop in the SEC. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava left last week’s game with an upper body injury since apparently he is a hockey player now. As of now there is no official word on Iamaleava’s status, but it sounds like the freshman will play on Saturday night.
Will the real Georgia please stand up? Last week the Bulldogs folded against Ole Miss in Oxford, losing 28-10 in rainy conditions. Quarterback Carson Beck just hasn’t been good this year, throwing 12 interceptions. Even in their 30-15 win over Texas last month, Beck tossed three interceptions. Along with not doing much through the air, Georgia was shut down on the ground, only rushing for 60 yards against the Rebels.
This isn’t quite the same Georgia team as we had become accustomed to. Beck doesn’t have any trusted targets in the passing game, the Bulldogs can’t consistently run the football, and the defense isn’t nearly as dominant as it has been the last few years. Running back Dylan Sampson and Iamaleava put together some drives, leading to the Volunteers shocking Georgia in Athens.
Tennessee 24, Georgia 21
Kansas v. No. 6 BYU (-3.5) – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
After BYU escaped Salt Lake City with a win last week, Kansas is probably going to be a trendy pick this week. The Cougars went into halftime down 21-10 to the Utes before rallying in the second half, with some help from Big 12 refs late in the game.
Now Jake Retzlaff and BYU are even closer to not only earning a spot in the College Football Playoff, but they could earn a bye if they are able to win their last four games before the CFP participants are announced.
Photo by Conor Kvatek/UCF Athletics/University Images via Getty Images
Kansas was able to rebound from a close loss to Kansas State with a 45-36 win over Iowa State last week. Apparently the Cyclones were reeling a lot more from their loss to Texas Tech than I expected them to be. The Jayhawks carved up Iowa State’s defense, recording 532 yards of offense. Running back Devin Neal is now just 49 rushing yards shy of 4,000 in his career.
BYU just feels like a team of destiny. Even though they could end up winning by a field goal or less, I’m banking on the Cougars to return home and put together a better performance than we saw from them last week against Utah. BYU forces Daniels into a couple turnovers in this game as they go on to stay undefeated by beating the Jayhawks by at least a touchdown.
BYU 30, Kansas 20