The Buckeyes opened at around 9.5-point favorites, and the light has moved slightly as of Monday morning.
Ohio State has been favored in every game throughout this postseason. The Buckeyes opened as 7.5-point favorites over Tennessee, 1.5-point favorites over Oregon and six-point favorites over Texas. That will not change for OSU in the national title game, as Ryan Day’s group enters Monday’s contest as 8.5-point favorites — their largest spread in their four College Football Playoff games.
Opening Odds: Ohio State -8.5 | O/U 45.5 (per FanDuel Sportsbook)
It was tough to get a read on Ohio State heading into the College Football Playoff, as the Buckeyes suffered one of the program’s worst losses of the last decade-plus to end the regular season, falling 13-10 to a bad Michigan team at home as massive favorites. It was clear that this group was supremely talented, but could they bounce back from that puzzling performance against the Wolverines and put together a run at a national title?
In the aftermath of Nov. 30, we have seen Ohio State respond by playing its absolute best football. The Buckeyes completely dismantled Tennessee in Columbus in the first round, and followed it up by running Oregon off the field at the Rose Bowl. Ohio State had to battle to come away victorious against Texas, but the Buckeyes were able to grind it out and win a type of game that this group has typically lost under Ryan Day. As a result, Ohio State is now one win away from completing the hardest national championship run in college football history.
The Buckeyes have been dominant on both sides of the ball during this postseason. Ohio State put up almost 1,000 yards of offense combined against the Vols and the Ducks, led by freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith’s 290 yards and four touchdowns. The defense, which has been great all season long, came up huge against the Longhorns, turning a goal line stand into points of their own with Jack Sawyer’s infamous sack-fumble, scoop-and-score to seal the game. Overall, Ohio State has averaged 37 points per game this postseason, while allowing only 17.3 points per game.
Like Ohio State, Notre Dame also had to overcome an embarrassing loss during the regular season, albeit one that came much earlier in the season when the Fighting Irish lost at home, 16-14, to Northern Illinois. Marcus Freeman’s group put that game in the rearview mirror rather quickly, and dominated each and every opponent in their path the rest of the way. Notre Dame averaged 44.1 points per game over its final 10 contests, and won by multiple scores in each of those matchups but one — a 31-24 victory over Louisville.
Notre Dame’s offense isn’t super flashy, but it is incredibly efficient, ranking sixth in FBS scoring 37 points per game this season. Riley Leonard has showcased his dual-threat ability in South Bend, throwing for over 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns with eight interceptions while rushing for another 866 yards and 16 TDs. Jeremiyah Love has been one of the nation’s best running backs, rushing for more than 1,100 yards on an impressive 7.1 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns. Eight different Notre Dame players have caught at least two touchdown passes.
While the Fighting Irish have been great offensively, they have been even better defensively, with a unit that ranks No. 2 nationally allowing only 14.3 points per game. Notre Dame has held its CFP opponents to an average of 17 points, allowing more than 20 points in the postseason just once in the 27-24 win over Penn State. The group is led by a dominant linebacker duo of Jack Kiser and Drayk Bowen. Kiser leads the team with 85 total tackles, and Bowen isn’t too far behind with 70. Notre Dame also has an elite safety in Xavier Watts, who has picked off a team-high six passes this season.
Ohio State is more than a touchdown favorite in this matchup, but that doesn’t mean Notre Dame has no chance of upsetting the Buckeyes. The Fighting Irish will likely look to keep the clock moving when they have the ball, limiting the amount of possessions for Ohio State’s dynamic offense. Look for Notre Dame to keep a safety overtop of Smith, much like Texas was able to do in the Cotton Bowl. Freeman’s group will have to find a way to keep the chains moving on the ground against a Buckeyes’ defense that ranks third in the country in rushing defense.
On the flip side, Ohio State will look to attack Notre Dame’s man coverage. Will Howard has been sensational in the postseason, and even with extra attention paid to Smith, the Buckeyes still have two other elite receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate to throw to. Jim Knowles’ defense has been exceptional since changes were made following the loss to Oregon earlier this season, and it will be tough for the Irish to put together repeated sustained drives. If Ohio State plays how it did in its first three CFP matchups, they will be tough to beat.