Ohio State will look to bounce Iowa from the Big Ten Tournament for a third straight year.
Ohio State didn’t help their NCAA Tournament chances on Saturday when they lost 66-60 to the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington to close out the regular season. Now the Buckeyes will need an impressive showing in the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis this week to try and work themselves off of the tournament bubble. The first round opponent for Ohio State is Iowa, who the Buckeyes beat 82-65 in Columbus in the only meeting of the regular season between the schools.
With Saturday’s loss to the Hoosiers, Ohio State has now lost four of their last six games. Jake Diebler’s team is faltering at the worst possible time. The Buckeyes led Indiana 29-25 at halftime, and actually led by five points with five minutes to go before going cold down the stretch. Micah Parrish scored a team-high 19 points, while Devin Royal was the only other Buckeye to score in double figures, finishing with 13 points.
A huge reason for Ohio State failing to close out their regular season schedule with a win was the play of Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr. The two guards weren’t able to find their range at Assembly Hall, combining to go 5-for-22 from the field. Thornton finished with just nine points on Saturday, marking only the fifth time this season where he scored less than 10 points in a game. When Thornton isn’t scoring, the Buckeyes aren’t winning, as evidenced by the team losing four of those games where the guard from Georgia wasn’t able to reach double figures in scoring.
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Another issue that showed up again in Saturday’s game was foul trouble, specifically by Sean Stewart. The Duke transfer fouled out for the second straight game, and for the seventh time this season. It has now been 17 games this season where Stewart has committed at least four fouls. With Ohio State having a rather short rotation of players, they need as many players available throughout the whole game as possible. Stewart has shown glimpses of strong play this year, as he is the team’s second-leading rebounder with 5.8 rebounds per game. What hurts Stewart is when he does get into foul trouble, it takes away some of his aggressiveness, along with relegating him to the bench for stretches of time. If Stewart can stay on the floor, it gives Ohio State a presence in the paint to go along with Devin Royal.
Preview
Battling the Buckeyes for the right to battle Illinois on Thursday in Indianapolis is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Despite losing five of their last seven games, Iowa earned the last spot in the Big Ten Tournament field by beating Nebraska 83-68 in Lincoln on Sunday afternoon. With the win, the Hawkeyes earned their first regular season sweep over the Cornhuskers since the 2014-15 season. Payton Sandfort netted a team-high 22 points, while Fran McCaffrey got major bench contributions from Pryce Sandfort, who scored 16 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, as well as 12 points from Brock Harding.
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This marks the third straight Big Ten Tournament where Ohio State and Iowa have squared off. The Buckeyes have won both of those games, topping the Hawkeyes 73-69 in 2023, followed by a 90-78 win last year. Overall, Ohio State is 5-2 in the Big Ten Tournament against Iowa. The Buckeyes are 34-19 in the Big Ten Tournament all-time, with their 2013 title being the most recent of their four tournament championships. Iowa is 22-23 in the Big Ten Tournament, winning it all in 2001, 2006, and 2022. Ohio State holds an 86-85 edge in the all-time series against the Hawkeyes.
Iowa was dealt a huge blow when Owen Freeman was ruled out for the rest of the season after playing in 19 games. Prior to the injury, Freeman was leading the Hawkeyes with 16.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. With Freeman injured, Payton Sandfort has done his best to pick up the slack. Sandfort is averaging 16.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Entering tonight’s game, Sandfort has 1,572 career points, which ranks 13th in school history, and his 261 three-pointers are just one behind tying Jeff Horner for second-most in school history. Sandfort is just the second Hawkeye to record 1,500 points, 500 rebounds, and hit 250 three-pointers in their career in Iowa City.
What could make Iowa dangerous in Indianapolis is their ability to put points on the scoreboard. The Hawkeyes are averaging 82.3 points per game, ranking second in the Big Ten and 16th nationally. The key to the Iowa offense is their ability to share the basketball. The Hawkeyes are averaging 18.3 assists per game, a number that leads the Big Ten and is fourth-best nationally. Brock Harding is a key distributor for the Iowa offense, as he is dishing out 5.4 assists per game. In the win over Nebraska, the Hawkeyes hit their average, finishing with 18 assists, while also turning the basketball over just four times.
The problems for Iowa during the season have started when they become too focused on the three-pointer. When the triples aren’t falling, opponents can usually capitalize. Since the Hawkeyes don’t have much of an inside presence after Freeman was lost for the season, they tend to have to rely more on playing on the perimeter now. A perfect example came in last month’s game against Maryland. The Hawkeyes were on fire in the first half, taking a 51-47 lead into the break in College Park. The second half was a different story, as Iowa scored just 24 points and ended up losing 101-75 to the Terrapins.
Prediction
Neither team inspired much confidence with its play down the final stretch of the regular season. About the only thing either team can hang their hat on is beating Nebraska in the final week, and even that isn’t saying much since the Cornhuskers were left out of playing in Indianapolis this week.
In their only meeting in the regular season, Ohio State was able to take control of their victory over the Hawkeyes by coming out of the halftime break and reeling off a 20-4 run. Iowa was ice cold from behind the arc, hitting on just 28% of their three-point attempts. The Buckeyes could be in trouble if the Hawkeyes are anywhere close to how they shot on Sunday against Nebraska when they hit nearly 40% of their three-pointers.
Where Ohio State will have the advantage in this game is if they can get the ball into the paint, either by drives from Bruce Thornton, or getting the basketball to Devin Royal. With Iowa not having the services of Freeman, the lack of presence in the paint for the Hawkeyes is a bullseye. It’s important for Thornton to try and penetrate the lane and either get to the foul line or see some close shots fall, since that could restore some of his confidence after a poor shooting performance on Saturday against Indiana. The Ohio State offense seems to operate so much better when it runs through Thornton.
Even though Iowa would love to play spoiler, this feels like a game that Ohio State is going to play one of their better games since they know their backs are against the wall. The Buckeyes are still a contender for an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament field, but a loss in the first round could see their bubble burst. Ohio State also can bring some confidence into this meeting since they already handily beat the Hawkeyes in their only meeting in the regular season in a game where Iowa still had their best player available. While the Buckeyes don’t often make things easy, they should be able to advance to a meeting on Thursday with Illinois.
ESPN BPI: Ohio State 66.2%
Time: Approx. 6 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 79, Iowa 72