After three consecutive games decided by just one score, the Buckeyes hit the road for West Lafayette to face the No. 17 Boilermakers.
After losing their last three in close decisions, Ohio State (10-8, 2-5 B1G) heads to West Lafayette, Ind., tonight to face No. 11 Purdue (15-4, 7-1 B1G), at a point in the season where each game becomes critical for conference tournament success and NCAA tournament hopes.
The Boilermakers, for their part, have just one conference loss this season, an early December contest against Penn State in their first conference game of the season. That loss is also their lone blemish against an unranked team this year.
The teams last met in February of 2024, when Purdue—then the No. 2-team in the country—was upset by Ohio State, 73-69. It was Buckeye head coach Jake Diebler’s debut in the role, as he was serving as interim head coach at the time after Chris Holtman’s midseason firing.
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Preview
Bringing with them a record that doesn’t tell the full story, Ohio State sits just above .500 but teeters near the bottom of the conference, their lone conference victories coming against Rutgers and Minnesota (their most recent win).
Each of the Buckeyes’ last four contests were neck-and-neck (including that win against Minnesota — OSU came out ahead in double-overtime, 89-88). Then three consecutive losses followed.
Still, despite being on a three-game losing streak, the numbers don’t show how close those games were, decided by two points or fewer. Two of those games came against ranked opponents (then-No. 15 Oregon and No. 24 Wisconsin), one on the road in one of the toughest venues in college basketball (on the road in Madison). Their most recent loss was an overtime thriller against Indiana, which the Hoosiers took, 77-76.
Do the Buckeyes need a reset? Sure. But they also have more gas in the tank than the numbers show. It might not matter come March, but a win at Purdue would be a huge way to get Ohio State’s train back on its tracks.
Against the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes carried a 35-29 lead into halftime after shooting 46.2 percent in the first half, but five quick points from Luke Goode cut the lead to just one, four minutes into the second half. It remained neck-and-neck for a bit, with a few lead changes, until the Hoosiers gave themselves a 10-point buffer. Still, the Buckeyes had a little fight left in them, cutting that lead down to just three in the final 90 seconds of regulation, forcing overtime off a three from John Mobley Jr.
In overtime, back-and-forth baskets kept things close, but Goode landed a three with just over a minute left, and Indiana’s Anthony Leal blocked a Mobley jumper in the final seconds. Bruce Thornton was there with the rebound, setting up the chance for a buzzer-beating OSU victory, but his clean look at the three bounced in and out, ending the game with the Hoosiers ahead.
As the Buckeyes attempted to cover the 7-foot Oumar Ballo (who finished the game with 21 points and 15 rebounds for the double-double, along with four assists and two blocks), Goode was able to seize his moment, finishing with a career-high 23 points.
Mobley led for the Buckeyes with 22 points, while Micah Parrish added a season-high 19 points, along with four rebounds and three steals (tying his season-high). Thornton added 18 points of his own.
One of the biggest differentiators between Indiana and OSU in the matchup came down to offensive rebounds—while the Hoosiers turned 14 offensive rebounds into 17 second-chance points, the Buckeyes only grabbed nine rebounds, good for six points.
So far this year, Ohio State has four guys averaging in double-digit scoring: Thornton (17.4 ppg, the eighth-best in the Big Ten), Devin Royal (13.8 ppg), John Mobley Jr. (12.5 ppg), and Micah Parrish (10.5 ppg). Royal also leads in rebounds with 7.4 per game, and Thornton leads with 4.3 assists.
Royal was out against Indiana with a right wrist strain and his status remains questionable at Purdue.
On the other side, the Boilermakers have won their last seven, most recently earning a 7-point victory on the road at No. 13 Oregon, 65-58. Excepting their first conference game this season, against Penn State, their only losses have come against ranked teams, most recently against No. 2 Auburn. They haven’t dropped a contest since the holiday break.
They are led in scoring by forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who is averaging 17.9 points per game, along with 6.5 rebounds. In Purdue’s last outing, a 65-58 road win over Oregon, Kaufman-Renn shot just 7-of-20 from the field but still managed to secure the double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds. He also had 100 percent free throw shooting (6-of-6) and six offensive rebounds.
Behind Kaufman-Renn, guard Braden Smith is averaging 15.1 points per game and leads the team in assists (8.9 per game) and steals (2.4 per game). Against the Ducks, Smith contributed 15 points, seven assists, four rebounds and four steals.
Rounding out their double-digit scoring is guard Fletcher Loyer who is averaging 13.1 points per game.
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Prediction
The Buckeyes got it done last year against a better Purdue team under far more unlikely circumstances, but while they’ve been knocking at the door of a big win for a few games now, last season also gave them the advantage of home court against the Boilermakers.
This time, they’ll have to head to West Lafayette to play in Mackey Arena, where the Buckeyes haven’t come out on top since the 2017-2018 season. Add to this the fact that last year’s upset is probably still fresh for Purdue players and fans alike, and this one is an uphill battle for the Buckeyes, who are facing a Purdue team that has been hot since the holiday break.
While Purdue hasn’t been shooting as efficiently on this recent road stretch as they usually do, the friendlier atmosphere of their home court should help them get back on their feet, so the Buckeyes will need to be able to cover them closely. Defensively, the Boilermakers are currently ranked 20th on KenPom, making them a formidable defensive foe for the Buckeyes.
Purdue is the better team on paper, but OSU has faced a few teams consecutively who are the better team on paper and still gave them a good fight. Victory is not impossible for OSU, but this hard-knock team will need to execute flawlessly, knock down shots, force turnovers, and capitalize on all second-chance opportunities if they have any hope of coming back to Columbus with this win under their belt.
Whether they manage to pull off the upset or not, the Buckeyes should be able to keep this one closer than people expect. They’re overdue for a tight matchup to end in their favor, and it could be exactly what they need to turn it around for the rest of the season.
ESPN BPI: Purdue 77.1%
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 73, Purdue 72