Looking to snap a three-game losing streak, the Buckeyes’ West Coast road trip continues with a do-or-die game against the Trojans.
As they enter the final three games of the regular season, Ohio State remains in Los Angeles to face the University of Southern California at 10:30 p.m. ET tonight on the Big Ten Network.
The Buckeyes (15-13, 7-10 B1G) are on a three-game losing streak, and have lost four of their last five. After netting themselves some big wins in January, the wheels seem to have come off this month at perhaps the most inopportune time. While the hourglass hasn’t completely run out of sand on an NCAA Tournament berth — they are still projected at a No. 11 seed — if they want to keep their March hopes alive, the Buckeyes have no wiggle room left.
Fortunately for them, all three of their remaining games are winnable, and up first are the USC Trojans. USC (14-13, 6-10 B1G) is in a slump of its own, having lost five of its last six. They currently sit just a half-game behind the Buckeyes in conference standings. They dropped their most recent game to Rutgers, 95-85, on the road.
Though the teams have met seven times in program history, this is their first meeting since USC officially joined the Big Ten earlier this year, and it is the first meeting in which both teams have so much riding on the game. Each of their last seven games have been close, and it seems like a strong possibility Wednesday night’s game will follow suit.
Preview
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Some of the Buckeyes’ recent woes can be attributed to the flu bug that’s been going through Ohio State’s locker room. Center Aaron Bradshaw has missed two games in a row, Sean Stewart and John Mobley Jr. have both been affected, and Mobley in particular looked off his game against UCLA, presumably due to the toll the illness has taken on his body.
Still, the Buckeyes have struggled to hit their shots from long range, and they’ve been obliterated by their opponents in the paint in their recent losses. Add to that the level at which their opponents have been outrebounding them in this current skid, and the alarms are sounding for the team to find their footing and fast.
Bradshaw is questionable for Wednesday’s game, but head coach Jake Diebler has hinted that the team could have him back against the Trojans, which would help with the challenges in the paint and on the glass. Still, the rest of the team also needs to be in top shape to keep this bubble team from, well, bursting.
In Ohio State’s last outing against the Bruins, UCLA opened well, but by a few minutes into the game, both teams were struggling to knock down their shots. For more than three and a half minutes in the first half, the teams combined to go 0-for-18 from the floor, with no points scored.
By the end of the first half, UCLA held a narrow 28-24 lead. The Buckeyes shot just 27 percent from the field (9-for-33) and 25 percent from distance (3-for-12) in the half.
While both teams started the second half shooting better, with Austin Parks and Mobley both hitting early threes for OSU to bring the Buckeyes within one, UCLA managed to extend their lead to 44-35. The Buckeyes were playing tough, but when you struggle to knock down the shots, it’s hard to close a points gap, allowing the Bruins to close things out, 69-61.
Bruce Thornton led the Buckeyes against the Bruins with 21 points, while Micah Parrish added 12 points for the good guys.
Thornton leads the team in scoring on the season, averaging 17.3 points per game, along with 4.3 assists. Devin Royal, Mobley and Parrish are also putting up double-figure averages, good for 13.3, 13.0 and 12.4 points per game, respectively. Royal also leads the team in rebounds with an average of 7.0 per game.
For the Trojans, things have been equally challenging of late, though they did a much better job of hitting shots in their last outing than OSU did against the Bruins. Most recently, the Trojans faced Rutgers on the road in New Jersey, where USC managed to keep things neck-and-neck in the first half. The teams went basket-for-basket for most of the first half, though Rutgers managed to take the lead at the end of the half after an 8-0 run.
Despite a phenomenal second-half outing from Desmond Claude, who put up 24 points in the second half alone and finished the game with 30 points for USC, the Scarlet Knights managed to widen the gap. Even an 8-0 run from the Trojans at the end of the game wasn’t enough, as Rutgers had already capitalized on their momentum. They took the win, 95-85.
It was not a total disaster for the Trojans, though, as they shot 51.5 percent from the field (34-of-66) and knocked down 46.7 percent of their threes. In addition to Claud’s spectacular performance, Wesley Yates III tacked on 23 points of his own, and the team was good for a season-best 18 offensive rebounds.
Claud leads the team this season with 16.2 points and 4.2 assists per game. Three other Trojans are averaging double figures: Yates III (13.4 ppg), Chibuzo Agbo (11.5 ppg), and Terrance Williams II (10.6 ppg).
Saint Thomas leads the team in rebounds, averaging 6.0 per game.
Prediction
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Both Ohio State and USC have a lot on the line at this point in the season. Any slip-ups could be the difference in whether or not they make the tournament—which means there is a lot to play for.
The Buckeyes have the opportunity to control their own destiny by winning out, and any pitfalls will be theirs and theirs alone to own. Does a loss completely preclude them from a tournament berth? Not necessarily. But they can’t rely on next time anymore — they’re running out of “next times” to course correct.
Is that nerve-wracking as a fan? Absolutely. But it also makes for great basketball, especially when the two teams on the court are this evenly matched.
The Buckeyes have a marginally better record than USC, but at the end of the day, don’t expect that to mean anything. This game is going to come down to grit, to heart, to who wants it more, and to who does what they need to do to make that happen. It’s a trial run for March.
USC will have the added advantage of a friendly environment. And more tangibly, the Buckeyes’ recent struggles have been areas where the Trojans have been strong.
While the Buckeyes have struggled to rebound, USC is coming off its best offensive rebounding performance this season. While the Buckeyes have struggled to hit shots, USC shot well against Rutgers.
And it’s not that the Buckeyes are incapable of these things—they’re averaging 78.2 points and 34.4 rebounds per game to USC’s 76.7 and 31.4, respectively—it’s that these have been areas that have hurt them in the last three games.
Some of this game will come down to how healthy the Buckeyes are when they take the court tonight. But beyond that, this game will tell us a lot about what both of these teams are made of on the intangible front. Which team can dig deep and tap into their grit to secure a critical win?
Yes, the Buckeyes will have to hit their shots. Yes, they will have to improve on their recent rebounding. But more importantly, they have to believe they can do this. Diebler is going to have to help his team stay focused and get across the finish line.
But don’t think for a second that USC won’t be doing the same thing. If these two teams have historically played each other closely, with Ohio State outscoring USC by just six points total across their seven overall meetings, 484-478, this game won’t be the exception.
If you’re looking for a blowout, you’re probably in the wrong place. This is likely to go basket-for-basket. But if you’re looking for great basketball? You’re in the right place.
ESPN BPI: Ohio State 52.5%
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: BTN
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 78, USC 77, OT