The Buckeyes are itching to end their three-game losing streak against Michigan, as well as secure a rematch with Oregon next week.
Ohio State closes out their regular season schedule on Saturday by hosting the Michigan Wolverines. A win over the hated rivals to the north would earn the Buckeyes a spot in next week’s Big Ten Championship Game, where they would be trying to avenge last month’s 32-31 loss to Oregon, as well as earn a first round bye in the College Football Playoff.
If Ohio State is able to make it to Indianapolis next week, it would be their first appearance in the conference championship game since 2020.
History against That Team Up North
Before the Buckeyes can think about a rematch with Oregon, they’ll have to snap a three-game losing streak against Michigan. Even though the Wolverines enter this game at 6-5, throw the record books out the window when it comes to The Game since many times in the rivalry a slumping side has played spoiler. Michigan enters this year’s game holding a 61-51-3 advantage in the heated series.
What has done the Buckeyes in over the past three years has been their play in the second half, with Michigan outscoring Ohio State 72-31 after halftime. This year the Buckeyes have dominated the middle portion of games, outscoring their opponents 278-52 in the second and third quarters of games. The scoring outbursts in the middle two quarters have helped Ohio State shake off some slow starts, as they have only scored more than once in the first quarter in one game, when they put 21 points on the board against Western Michigan.
What happened last week against Indiana
Ohio State enters this week’s game coming off a 38-15 win over Indiana, their second win over a Top 5 team in three games this season. The defense of the Buckeyes was the difference in the win over the Hoosiers, holding the high-powered Indiana offense to just 153 yards, with most of the success for Curt Cignetti’s team coming on their first drive of the game when they marched down the field to score a touchdown and put the Buckeyes in a 7-0 hole.
Ohio State would go on to score 31 unanswered points to erase any doubt in the result and win their 29th straight game against Indiana.
Ohio State on offense
Will Howard continued his tremendous quarterback play by throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another last week, earning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors. By completing 22 of his 26 pass attempts against the Hoosiers, Howard now has six games this year where he has posted a completion percentage of 80 percent or better, giving him both single season and career school records in that category.
Howard is currently leading the country with a 74 percent pass completion percentage. Through 11 games this year Howard has 33 total touchdowns, throwing for 26 scores and adding another seven on the ground.
Following a quiet four games since the loss to Oregon,
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Egbuka was Howard’s preferred target last week, catching seven passes for 80 yards and a score. Not only has Egbuka now caught at least one pass in 36 straight games, the senior is now third in school history with 180 receptions, moving past Chris Olave last week. With 65 more receiving yards, Egbuka will move up to sixth in school history in career receiving yards, passing Marvin Harrison Jr.
Egbuka wasn’t the only Buckeye catching passes last week. Carnell Tate continued his consistent play by hauling in four passes for 68 yards, while Jeremiah Smith finished with three receptions for 34 yards. Tight end Jelani Thurman made up for a first half miscue that saw a ball bounce off his hands and directly into the arms of an Indiana defender, catching the first touchdown pass of his college career to extend Ohio State’s lead to 28-7 in the third quarter.
An area where the Buckeyes might have a hard time finding success is on the ground. Michigan is 10th in the country, allowing just 94 yards per game rushing. TreVeyon Henderson ran for 68 yards and a touchdown last week, while Quinshon Judkins was only able to gain 36 yards on 14 carries against the Hoosiers.
The duo has put up similar numbers this season. Judkins leads the team with 759 yards rushing and eight touchdowns, 29 yards and two scores more than Henderson. The difference is Henderson has done his damage on 37 less carries than the Ole Miss transfer.
Despite suffering two massive injuries to starters this season, the Ohio State offensive line is still one of the best groups in the country. Donovan Jackson has slid over to left tackle to replace Josh Simmons, while last year’s starter Carson Hinzman is back at center after Seth McLaughlin suffered an achilles injury in practice prior to the Indiana game.
Entering this week’s game, the Buckeyes have allowed just 37 tackles for loss, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the country. The line also has done a great job at keeping Howard clean, giving up just 12 sacks.
The Buckeye defense is smothering opponents
Cody Simon continues to play at a high level in his final season in Columbus, earning Bednarik Award National Player of the Week and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week accolades after recording 10 tackles and a career-high 2.5 sacks against Indiana.
Simon is second on the team in tackles with 65 stops, six behind fellow linebacker Sonny Styles. The New Jersey native is also second on the team with five sacks, one shy of tying defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau for the team lead.
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Another Buckeye defender that has been making waves this season is safety Caleb Downs. The Alabama transfer was recently named a finalist for the Thorpe and Bednarik Awards. Last week Downs not only had five tackles, he also had the first Ohio State punt return touchdown in a decade, 10 years to the day that Jalin Marshall took a punt to the house against Indiana. Downs is tied for fourth in the country among defensive backs with 6.5 TFLs.
Along with Downs, a key member of the secondary is Denzel Burke, who is in line to make his 46th straight start this week, which would tie William White for most among Ohio State defensive backs. Joining Burke at cornerback is Davison Igbinosun, who has had some issues with pass interference penalties. Despite the flags, Igbinosun has made some massive plays in key spots this season. Rounding out the secondary is safety Lathan Ransom and cornerbacks Jordan Hancock and Jermaine Matthews Jr.
How the defense plays on Saturday is going to start with the defensive line. Jack Sawyer continued his second half resurgence by registering a sack and a half against Indiana. Sawyer now has 4.5 sacks this year, along with two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Tuimoloau and Sawyer are the key pass rushers on a defense that has 35 sacks and 75 tackles for loss this season. Along with sacks in last week’s game from Sawyer and Tuimoloau, defensive tackle Ty Hamilton had a huge play when he recovered a fumble.
A tough season after winning it all
This season would be a lot tougher for Michigan to stomach if they weren’t the defending national champs. Everybody knew there was going to be some regression after Jim Harbaugh left to return to the NFL, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy followed his head coach and was a first round pick in the NFL Draft. Even with those key losses, many Michigan fans thought they would be entering this week’s game with more than six wins.
The Wolverines are coming off their best game of the season, beating Northwestern 50-6 on senior day in Ann Arbor. The 50 points were the most Michigan has scored this season. After taking a 17-6 lead into halftime, the Wolverines really turned up the heat in the second half. The victory was needed after Michigan entered last week’s game having lost four of their previous five contests.
Warren & the Wolverines
Davis Warren has recovered from a tough early start to the season to regain the trust of head coach Sherrone Moore and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. Earlier in the season Warren had issues with interceptions, tossing six picks over the first three games.
Since returning as starter for the Michigan State game, Warren has made better decisions, only throwing one interception over the last four games. The 195 yards he threw for last week against Northwestern is his second-highest yardage total of the season.
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Entering this season Donovan Edwards was expected to be the star of the Wolverine offense after Blake Corum moved on to the NFL. Edwards ran for 104 yards and two touchdowns in the title game win over Washington in January, but hasn’t hit triple digits on the ground since. So far this year Edwards has been ordinary, totaling just 578 yards and four touchdowns on 124 carries. The senior has only eclipsed 80 yards on the ground in two games this season.
Kalel Mullings has done most of the heavy lifting this year, leading the team with 832 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. Mullings had a stretch in September where he rushed for at least 110 yards in three straight games. The senior running back from Massachusetts is coming off a career-high three touchdown game in the blowout win over Northwestern. Mullings, Edwards, and the rest of the Michigan running backs are coached by former Ohio State running backs coach Tony Alford, who accepted the job in Ann Arbor in the offseason.
Expect Davis Warren to target tight end Colston Loveland frequently on Saturday. Loveland made a name for himself the last time the teams played in Columbus, catching a 45-yard touchdown pass in the 45-23 win.
This year Loveland has 56 catches, which are the most by a tight end in a season in school history, passing the 53 receptions Bennie Joppru had in 2002. With three more catches Loveland will pass Jim Mandich’s 119 receptions for second-most in Michigan history by a tight end. Loveland had 112 yards in the loss to Oregon, marking his only 100-yard game so far this season.
Last week the Michigan receiving corps was without Semaj Morgan, who was sidelined due to injury. Stepping up with Morgan inactive was Tyler Morris, who caught a career-high seven passes. Morris now sits one reception behind Morgan’s 23 catches for most by a Wolverine wide receiver this season. The only Michigan players with at least 10 receptions this year are Loveland, Morgan, Morris, and Edwards.
Picking up the slack
Had it not been for their defense, Michigan wouldn’t be anywhere close to six wins this year. After spending 20 years in the NFL, Wink Martindale came to Ann Arbor to take over for Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator. So far this season the only games in which the Wolverines have allowed more than 30 points came against Texas and Oregon.
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One player who will test the Ohio State offensive line is Josaiah Stewart, who is the NCAA’s active leader with 30 sacks. This season Stewart has 13 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles. Along with Stewart, Michigan has a formidable interior of their defensive line with Mason Graham and Larry Grant. The defensive tackles have combined to record 13 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks through 11 games.
Patrolling the middle of the defense of the Wolverines are two transfer linebackers from Big Ten schools. Ernest Hausmann came to Michigan from Nebraska two years ago, while Jaishawn Barham was a transfer portal addition from Maryland in the offseason. Hausmann leads the team with 74 tackles, and Barham is second on the squad with 60 stops. The tackling totals for both players this year have already set career highs.
Unfortunately for Michigan, their best defensive player has missed the last four games. Prior to the season, Will Johnson was in the mix to be the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year. The junior from Detroit started the season strong, returning interceptions for touchdowns against Fresno State and USC. While head coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t ruled Johnson out to play on Saturday, he didn’t sound optimistic the cornerback would be suiting up.
The absence of Johnson has put more on the plates of the rest of the defensive backs of the Wolverines. The pressure must have gotten to Jyaire Hill, since despite breaking up eight passes this season Hill was recently benched, leaving Aamir Hall to start for Hill. The move paid immediate dividends since Hall intercepted a pass last week against Northwestern.
Zeke Berry has bounced between nickelback and cornerback this season, picking off two passes and breaking up seven throws. Lining up at safety are Makari Paige and Quinten Johnson. Paige has 42 tackles, which are the most on the team among defensive backs.
Prediction
On paper Ohio State should win handily but when it comes to The Game the best strategy is to expect the unexpected. Michigan is coming off their best performance of the season which should help their mental state entering Saturday’s game. Plus they will have confidence riding three straight wins over the Buckeyes. While the cast of characters has changed for the Wolverines there are still some players who have played key roles in recent wins over Ohio State.
What will help the Buckeyes is if they can come out of the gates hot, which is something they repeatedly have failed to do this year. Even if their first series of the game is a dud at least they know how to respond and make changes to be able to take the game by the horns. Will Howard brings a lot of savvy veteran leadership that will allow Ohio State to weather any early adversity.
While we know Howard has no problem finding Egbuka, Smith, and his other talented targets, the running game is going to be paramount in this contest. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly might be wise to feature TreVeyon Henderson more in this game because he has been able to consistently find success this year more than Quinshon Judkins has. Plus, Henderson has a number of games against Michigan under his belt.
In the end, quarterback play is going to be the difference. Howard knows all about what is needed in big spots while Davis Warren will be playing in the toughest game of his career. Earlier in the season Warren had some issues with turnovers, and those mistakes could pop back up again on Saturday since the defense of the Buckeyes is relentless. Ohio State narrowly misses covering but they win comfortably.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 34, Michigan 17