Ohio State v. Notre Dame: National title game preview and prediction

Capital One Orange Bowl - Penn State v Notre Dame — Photo by CFP/Getty Images

It all comes down to this. Ohio State and Notre Dame meet on Monday night in Atlanta with a college football national championship on the line.

The final game of the college football season is upon us. Ohio State and Notre Dame will square off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday night, with the winner being crowned the first champion of the CFP’s 12-team playoff.

How Ohio State has navigated the playoff so far

To reach the title game, Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 in last Friday’s Cotton Bowl, their third win in the playoff by double digits. The Buckeyes jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first quarter against the Longhorns, and have still not trailed in the playoff this season.

Through three playoff games, Ohio State has outscored opponents 42-0 in the first quarter, out-gaining their three foes 560 yards to 124 yards in the first 15 minutes of games. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents 69-25 in the first half of CFP games.

Ohio State took a 14-7 lead into halftime against Texas following TreVeyon Henderson’s 75-yards receiving touchdown just before the break. The Longhorns would go on to tie the score in the third quarter following Jaydon Blue’s second touchdown of the game. The Buckeyes would take the lead for good after Quinshon Judkins scored his second touchdown of the game in the fourth quarter.

Texas threatened to tie the game with under four minutes to go in the fourth quarter, pushing the football down to Ohio State’s one-yard-line following a pass interference penalty against the Buckeyes in the end zone. Ohio State would deny the Longhorns on the first three downs before Jack Sawyer pressured quarterback Quinn Ewers on fourth down, stripping the former Buckeye of the football and returning in 83 yards for a touchdown, doubling Ohio State’s lead.

Caleb Downs intercepted Ewers on the ensuing drive to put the final in the coffin of the Longhorns.

History with Notre Dame

For the third-straight season Ohio State and Notre Dame will meet. The Buckeyes have won each of those regular season games, beating the Fighting Irish 21-10 to open the 2022 season in Columbus, followed by a 17-14 win in South Bend last season.

With those victories, the Buckeyes have now won six straight games against Notre Dame. The last win for the Fighting Irish in the series came all the way back in 1936. This marks the third neutral site game between the schools. The first was at the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. followed by another Fiesta Bowl matchup in 2016.

There will be a number of members of both coaching staffs who have spent time at both schools. Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was a linebacker at Ohio State during his playing career. Buckeye strength coach Mickey Marotti held the same position at Notre Dame from 1998 to 2005.

Tight ends coach Keenan Bailey was a Notre Dame graduate back in 2016. Ohio State linebackers coach James Laurinaitis was a graduate assistant at Notre Dame in 2022 before returning to Columbus. Notre Dame defensive line coach Al Washington was a linebackers coach at Ohio State from 2019 to 2021.

To say both these coaching staffs know each other is an understatement.

The grand finale for the Ohio State offense

The biggest surprise from the Cotton Bowl was wide receiver Jeremiah Smith catching just one pass for three yards. Unlike Tennessee and Oregon, Texas wasn’t going to allow Smith to beat them deep, throwing Jahdae Barron and a number of other defenders at Smith.

With the freshman wide receiver blanketed, Carnell Tate was frequently targeted by Will Howard, catching a team-high seven passes for 87 yards. Along with Tate, Emeka Egbuka and tight end Gee Scott Jr. each caught five passes in the victory.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic - Ohio State v Texas

Monday night will be Emeka Egbuka’s final game as a Buckeye. The wide receiver is close to breaking a couple of the school’s career receiving records. Egbuka has 199 career receptions after hauling in five passes against Texas, putting him three catches away from breaking K.J. Hill’s record of 201 receptions as a Buckeye.

The senior also has 2,804 career receiving yards, good for third in school history. With 52 more yards, Egbuka will move past David Boston, and 95 more yards will see Egbuka break Michael Jenkins’ school record for receiving yards in a career. In two games against Notre Dame, Egbuka has caught 16 passes for 186 yards.

Quarterback Will Howard is now just one win away from leading Ohio State to a national title in what will be his only season in Columbus. By throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown against Texas, Howard was named the Cotton Bowl Offensive MVP. Over three CFP games, Howard has completed 73.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 919 yards and six touchdowns. For the season, Howard has 40 total touchdowns, with 33 of those scores coming through the air.

Even though running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins haven’t been used a lot during the playoffs, they have been very effective when their numbers have been called. Each running back has rushed for four touchdowns over the three games. Henderson also added the 75-yard receiving touchdown right before halftime of the Cotton Bowl.

The numbers this year for Henderson and Judkins are eerily similar. Henderson has rushed for 992 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Judkins has rushed for 982 yards and 12 scores. Entering his final game as a Buckeye, Henderson has 3,712 rushing yards, good for fifth in school history. If Henderson rushes for 57 yards on Monday night he’ll move past Eddie George for fourth all-time at Ohio State.

The Buckeye defense is playing with purpose

If Notre Dame has designs of winning a national title, they’ll have to crack Ohio State’s top-ranked defense. The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring defense, total defense, and pass defense, while ranking third in rush defense and sacks. In the College Football Playoff, the Ohio State rush defense has been even stronger, allowing just 62.3 yards per game on the ground. Last Friday in Dallas, Texas only gained two yards per carry, finishing with 58 yards rushing.

While Jack Sawyer deservedly was named Cotton Bowl Defensive MVP after his scoop and score late in the fourth quarter, J.T. Tuimoloau has been an even bigger menace this season. After being credited with 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks in the Cotton Bowl, Tuimoloau has 19.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks this season, 2.5 more sacks than Sawyer has. As a team, the Buckeyes have 16 sacks over their three playoff games, with Tuimoloau and Sawyer combining to record 10 sacks.

The pressure by the Ohio State defense isn’t just coming from the defensive line. Linebackers Cody Simon and Sonny Styles have combined to record 12 of the 51 sacks by the Buckeye defense this year. Styles led Ohio State with nine tackles in the win over Texas, while Simon added seven stops. With his output against the Longhorns, Simon hit triple digits in tackles, sitting at 104 tackles entering Monday’s title game. Styles is on Simon’s heels, as he is six away from also reaching 100 tackles this season.

The most formidable safety duo in the country this season has to be Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom. Downs had the game-sealing interception of Quinn Ewers to go along with five tackles. Ransom added four tackles, with one of those being behind the line of scrimmage. Together, Downs and Ransom have combined for 149 tackles and 16.5 TFLs this season. Downs has intercepted two passes this year, while Ransom has picked off a pass, recovered a fumble, and forced three fumbles.

Coming out of the Cotton Bowl there was a concern because cornerback Denzel Burke didn’t play in the second half because of injury, leaving Jermaine Mathews Jr. to fill in. According to head coach Ryan Day, Burke is good to go on Monday night, joining Davison Igbinosun and Jordan Hancock in the secondary.

Both Burke and Igbinosun have intercepted two passes this year. Igbinosun has nine pass breakups this year, with Hancock adding seven PBUs.

How Notre Dame secured a spot in Atlanta

Notre Dame clinched their spot in the title game with a thrilling 27-24 win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl, their fourth win over a Big Ten team this season. After Jaden Greathouse’s 54-yard touchdown catch to tie the score at 24 with 4:38 left in the fourth quarter, Mitch Jeter hit a 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left following a Drew Allar interception. Prior to the victory over Penn State, the Fighting Irish beat Indiana in the first round of the College Football Playoff, followed by a 23-10 win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

The only setback for Notre Dame this year came in one of the biggest upsets of the season when Northern Illinois left South Bend with a 16-14 victory back in September. Since then the Fighting Irish have left no doubt in games, winning 11 of their next 13 games by double figures. The only games they failed to win by at least 10 points were a 31-24 victory against Louisville and the tight win in the Orange Bowl over Penn State.

With a 14-1 record, Marcus Freeman is now 33-9 in his third full season as head coach of the Fighting Irish.

All the Notre Dame offense needs is some Leonard and Love

Leading the charge for the Notre Dame offense is their rushing attack. Not only will Ohio State have to account for running back Jeremiyah Love, they’ll also have to keep tabs on quarterback Riley Leonard. Both rushed for a touchdown against Penn State, marking the 11th straight game the duo have each rushed for a touchdown, breaking the FBS record set by Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua for most consecutive games a quarterback and running back on the same team have each rushed for a touchdown.

Love entered the Orange Bowl banged up after suffering a knock against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Love finished with 46 yards rushing on 11 carries, pushing rushing total this season to 1,122 yards and 17 touchdowns. Love has now scored a rushing touchdown in 13 straight games, setting a school record for consecutive games with a rushing touchdown.

One of those scores was an incredible 98-yard touchdown early in the first round game against Indiana to set the tone for the Fighting Irish. Along with Love, Jadarian Price has rushed for 733 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

Taking the snaps for Notre Dame is Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. Along with throwing for 19 touchdowns this season, Leonard added 16 rushing touchdowns, setting a Notre Dame record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season. For his career, Leonard has 35 rushing touchdowns, ranking second among active quarterbacks in the FBS.

In the Orange Bowl, Leonard was forced to the sidelines before halftime as officials were worried about a possible concussion. Steve Angeli stepped in to complete six of his seven pass attempts, totaling 44 yards. Leonard returned to the field after halftime, and will start in Monday night’s game. While Leonard’s legs are part of what makes him successful because of his ability to keep defenses guessing, it also does open him up to more hits, like he took before halftime against Penn State.

Even though Notre Dame doesn’t have the stable of receivers Ohio State does, the Buckeye defense can’t overlook the Fighting Irish wideouts. Jaden Greathouse was the star of the Orange Bowl, finishing with a team-high 105 yards on seven receptions. For the season, Greathouse has 36 catches for 464 yards. The yardage amassed by Greathouse is the most on the team among receivers, while Mitchell Evans’ 39 catches are a team-high.

Clemson transfer Beaux Collins has caught 37 passes for 458 yards, scoring three touchdowns. Jordan Faison and Kris Mitchell have both caught at least 20 passes this season.

Much like Ohio State, Notre Dame is dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left tackle Anthonie Knapp has been ruled out of Monday’s game after suffering a knee injury in the Orange Bowl. Filling in for Knapp will be either Tosh Baker or Charles Jagusah.

The good news for the Fighting Irish is right guard Rocco Spindler will be available to play after he was injured against the Nittany Lions. With the injury to Knapp, the only starter on the offensive line who started in the same position in the season opener against Texas A&M will be right tackle Aamil Wagner.

The defense of the Fighting Irish is powered by Watts

The Fighting Irish also suffered a massive loss on the defensive line when Rylie Mills injured his knee in the first round game against Indiana, sidelining him for the rest of the season. Prior to his injury, Mills had 7.5 sacks this season, which is still the high mark on the team.

Filling in for Mills has been Gabriel Rubio, who saw the first two starts of his career in the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl. Lining up with Rubio on the defensive line are Howard Cross III, R.J. Oben, and Joshua Burnham.

The strength of the Notre Dame defense lies with their linebackers and secondary. Leading the team in tackles is linebacker Jack Kiser, who had 10 stops in the Orange Bowl, raising his season total to 85 tackles. Lining up with Kiser at linebacker is Drayk Bowen, who has 70 tackles this season.

Both Kiser and Bowen have four tackles for loss and two forced fumbles this year. Kiser has also recovered two fumbles. Joining the mix at linebacker is Jaylen Sneed, who has started the last two games at Notre Dame’s hybrid CB/S/LB spot.

The star of the Notre Dame defense is Xavier Watts. The safety has six interceptions this year, giving him 13 picks over the last two years, which is four more interceptions than any FBS player has during that span. Watts also has recorded 74 tackles this season. While Watts will have his hands full with Ohio State’s wide receivers, he will have some help.

Cornerback Christian Gray picked off Drew Allar late in the Orange Bowl to put Notre Dame in position to kick the game-winning field goal. Filling out the other spots in the secondary of the Fighting Irish are Adon Shuler and Leonard Moore.

Prediction

Notre Dame has put together a strong run to reach the College Football Playoff Championship Game. Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish it isn’t as impressive as what Ohio State has done to secure a spot in Atlanta.

Indiana was obviously out of their element, Georgia had a backup quarterback making his first career start, and Penn State had no receiving weapons outside tight end Tyler Warren. The Nittany Lions couldn’t even complete a pass to a wide receiver in the game. That wasn’t because Notre Dame’s secondary is so good, it’s more because the Penn State wide receivers are terrible.

Not to say the Fighting Irish defense isn’t good, because they are one of the best units in the country. The problem for defensive coordinator Al Golden is he hasn’t yet faced an offense as dynamic as what Ohio State brings to the table. The veteran leadership at quarterback of Will Howard, the dynamic duo at running back with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, followed by the stable of talented wide receivers. Notre Dame just doesn’t have the horses to keep pace with the Buckeyes.

If Ohio State is able to jump out on Notre Dame early on, the Fighting Irish are going to be in big trouble since they don’t have a strong passing game. What has made Notre Dame so successful this season is they can jump out on their opponents, use their running game to bleed the clock, and force their opponents to pass, allowing Watts and company to force turnovers. The Buckeyes aren’t going to allow Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard to find much success on the ground, considering how stout they have been against the run in the playoffs.

As long as Ryan Day doesn’t try and outthink himself like he did in the Michigan game, the Buckeyes should be in good shape. Ohio State can match Notre Dame on defense, and there is no question the offense of the Buckeyes has more firepower than that of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has played Ohio State tight each of the last two years.

While this game won’t be a blowout, it also doesn’t feel like it is going to be decided on the last possession like last year’s contest in South Bend.