Following last week’s big win at Penn State, Ohio State will look to handle their business at home against Purdue.
After leaving State College with a 20-13 win over Penn State in a showdown between top-five teams, Ohio State returns home this week to host the Purdue Boilermakers. The win over the Nittany Lions put the Buckeyes in control of their own destiny when it comes to earning a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis next month, with a potential rematch with Oregon in the cards.
The win over Penn State was Ohio State’s eighth-straight over the Nittany Lions. True to recent form in the series, the game wasn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter. Following a goal-line stand that kept Penn State from tying the game, the Buckeyes ran out the final 5:13 of the game, sending most of the record crowd at Beaver Stadium home disappointed.
History with Purdue
Now Ohio State will look to avoid a letdown when they welcome the Purdue Boilermakers to Ohio Stadium for just the fourth time since 2010. The last time Purdue was in Columbus was in 2021, with the Buckeyes easily winning 59-31. Ohio State holds a 26-6-2 edge in games played in Columbus against the Boilermakers, winning nine straight games at Ohio Stadium.
Overall, the Buckeyes lead the series 41-15-2. Purdue has caused some problems for Ohio State in the nine meetings since 2009, winning four of those games. The most recent win for the Boilermakers over the Buckeyes was the infamous 49-20 drubbing in West Lafayette in 2018.
The Ohio State offense came up big in the clutch last week
There’s no question Will Howards was amped up early on in last week’s game. Howard grew up in Pennsylvania, dreaming of playing for the Nittany Lions. On his first pass in Beaver Stadium, Howard was intercepted by Zion Tracy, who ran the pick back 31 yards to give Penn State a 10-0 lead with just over five minutes left in the first quarter.
Howard would regain his composure, tossing touchdown passes to Emeka Egbuka and Brandon Inniss to give the Buckeyes a 14-10 lead early in the second quarter. Ohio State would not trail again in the game.
Howard had a chance to put the Buckeyes up by 11 points later in the second quarter, but the football was punched out of Howard’s arms and rolled through the end zone to give possession back to the Nittany Lions. The Kansas State transfer wound up finishing the game with 182 yards passing and two touchdown passes. Even though Howard had a few shaky moments, his wealth of experience allowed him to recover and put those miscues behind him quickly in the hostile environment.
Entering last week’s game, there were major questions about how the left side of the Ohio State offensive line would look. Tackle Josh Simmons was injured against Oregon, sidelining him for the rest of the season. Two weeks later against Nebraska, Zen Michalski wasn’t able to rise to the moment before he was injured.
Prior to last week’s game, head coach Ryan Day said Michalski would play against the Nittany Lions if he was healthy enough. Michalski wasn’t cleared to play, leaving guard Donovan Jackson to slide over to tackle, and Carson Hinzman to start at left guard.
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While there were times when Jackson had trouble keeping outstanding defensive end Abdul Carter out of the backfield, the performances of Jackson and Hinzman were overwhelmingly positive. Most notable was Ohio State’s effectiveness running the football, totaling 176 yards on the ground against Penn State after finishing the Nebraska game with just 64 yards rushing.
Quinishin Judkins had 95 yards on 14 carries, while TreVeyon Henderson added 54 yards. The two are averaging nearly 140 yards per game rushing this year, finding the end zone 10 times on the ground.
About the only negative offensively from last week’s game was Jeremiah Smith was kept out of the end zone for the first time in a game in his college career. Smith still led the team with four catches for 55 yards. The true freshman now has the most receiving yards for a freshman in school history, with his 678 yards passing the 648 yards Cris Carter amassed in 1984.
This week Smith has a chance to pass Carter and sit alone at the top of two other freshman receiving lists. Smith is three catches away from passing Carter’s 41 grabs, and the next touchdown will bereka the tie they are currently in with eight receiving touchdowns.
Much like Smith, Emeka Egbuka is working his way up some Ohio State receiving lists. The senior is now fourth in school history with 170 catches, six away from tying Chris Olave for third. Egbuka is also eighth with 2,434 receiving yards, putting him 70 yards away from moving past Devin Smith for seventh in school history. Against Penn State, Egbuka scored the first touchdown of the game for the Buckeyes, finishing with 31 yards on his three catches.
The Buckeye defense has rallied after the Oregon game
After the Oregon game there was a lot of criticism of the Ohio State defense and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. The defense has responded in a big way, allowing 30 points and 543 yards over the last two games.
Even more impressive is the Ohio State defense has had goal-line stands at critical points in the last two games. The Buckeyes stopped Penn State inside the five-yard line in the fourth quarter to keep the score at 20-13, and the Nittany Lions wouldn’t touch the football again in the game.
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The play of the game was made by cornerback Davison Igbinosun when he intercepted a pass in the corner of the end zone just before halftime, denying Penn State a touchdown that would have given the Nittany Lions the lead. The interception was the second of the season by Igbinosun. At the other cornerback spot, Denzel Burke has bounced back after a rough game at Oregon. The 43 starts by Burke entering this week’s game are the most among defensive backs in the country.
The secondary received a boost last week with the return of safety Lathan Ransom after the senior missed the Nebraska game. Ransom was busy in his return, finishing the game with seven tackles. Alongside Ransom, Caleb Downs continued to show why he is in the conversation as one of the best safeties in the country. Together, Ransom and Downs have combined to make 71 tackles and 10 tackles for loss this season.
Another Buckeye defender who had an outstanding performance in State College was linebacker Cody Simon, who led the team in tackles for the third straight game, finishing with 10 tackles against the Nittany Lions. Simon also had a sack in the game and made an important pass breakup of a pass when Penn State was threatening to score.
Simon wasn’t the only linebacker putting in work on Saturday, as Sonny Styles was right on Simon’s heels with nine stops in the game. The two athletic linebackers were a big reason why tight end Tyler Warren didn’t have much of an impact in the game. Styles enters this week with a team-high 52 tackles this season, while Simon is second on the team with 43 tackles.
The defensive line could be missing a key piece this week, as defensive tackle Tyleik Williams is day-to-day after suffering an injury last week. In reality, if there was a game for Williams to miss, this would be a good one to sit out and make sure he is healthy for the Indiana and Michigan games later this month. If Williams isn’t able to play, expect to see Kayden McDonald, Kenyatta Jackson, and Caden Curry on the field more.
Even though he didn’t come close to matching his legendary 2022 performance, J.T. Tuimoloau still made some noise against Penn State, finishing with six tackles and 1.5 TFLs. Tuimoloau enters this week with a team-high 4.5 sacks, which is two ahead of Williams, Ty Hamilton, and Jack Sawyer.
The season so far for the Boilermakers
Purdue enters this game coming off a 26-20 overtime loss to Northwestern, marking their seventh straight loss after beating Indiana State in the season opener. The loss to the Wildcats was the second overtime loss of the season for the Boilermakers.
Last month Purdue took Illinois to the limit, falling 50-49 in overtime to the Fighting Illini. With last week’s loss, second-year head coach is now just 5-15 after taking over for Jeff Brohm, who left Purdue for Louisville following the 2022 season.
Purdue’s offense has gone off the rails this year
The offense of the Boilermakers has been dreadful for most of the season, scoring 21 points or less in six of their eight games this year. The only times they passed that mark was in the season opener when they beat Indiana State 49-0, and in the 50-49 overtime loss to Illinois.
Starting at quarterback will be Texas transfer Hudson Card, who is in his second season in West Lafayette. The senior from Austin is coming off one of his better performances of the season, throwing for 267 yards against Northwestern, which was his second-highest yardage total of the season. Last week’s game against the Wildcats was his first in nearly a month after he missed the Illinois and Oregon games due to injury.
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Purdue’s best course of action the rest of the year might be to see what they have with Ryan Browne. The redshirt freshman became the first Purdue quarterback since Brandon Kirsch in 2002 to pass for 250 yards and rush for 100 yards in a game, totaling 297 yards passing and 118 yards rushing against Illinois. Browne at least gives the Boilermakers a little more versatility at quarterback with his ability to run the football.
What has been puzzling about Purdue is why they haven’t tried to run the football more since they have two solid running backs in Devin Mockobee and Illinois transfer Reggie Love III. Both Mockobee and Love are averaging over five yards per carry, combining to rush for 864 yards and five touchdowns on 151 carries this year. Mockobee is sixth in school history with eight games of at least 100 yards rushing.
Unlike 2018 when Rondale Moore terrorized Ohio State, Purdue doesn’t have a game-changing threat in the passing game. The leading receiver for the Boilermakers this year is tight end Max Klare, who has 30 receptions for 462 yards and two touchdowns. The only other receivers on the team with at least 200 yards receiving this year are Jahmal Edrine and Jaron Tibbs. Last week the group also received a boost with the debut of Georgia transfer CJ Smith, who missed the first seven games of the season due to injury.
The defense will need to “Boiler Up”
On the defensive side of the football, expect to hear Dillon Thieneman’s name called early and often. The 2023 Big Ten Freshman of the Year is leading the team with 63 tackles this season. Last year Thieneman picked off six passes, breaking Stuart Schweigert’s school record for interceptions by a freshman. Thieneman also bested Rod Woodson’s freshman school record for solo tackles.
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Along with Thieneman, another defensive back that had played outstanding football this year is Kyndrich Breedlove, who joined Purdue from the transfer portal after spending time at Ole Miss and Colorado. Entering this week, Breedlove is fourth in the Big Ten with three interceptions. Also at defensive back is Antonio Stevens, who picked off his first career pass last week against Northwestern.
At linebacker, Kydran Jenkins’ 58 tackles are just five shy of Thieneman for the team lead. Jenkins has been a menace this year, recording a team-high 8.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. The senior is the 12th Boilermaker with at least 40 career tackles for loss, and is sixth in school history with 22 sacks. Also at linebacker is Yanni Karlaftis, who is the younger brother of former All-American George Karlaftis. The younger Karlaftis has 43 tackles this season.
Right behind Jenkins when it comes to sacks is Will Heldt, who has five sacks this season. The sophomore lined up at the RUSH position, which is more of a LB/DL hybrid spot. On the other end of the defensive line is Cole Brevard, who started his college career at Penn State. Brevard has 4.5 TFLs this year, but has yet to record a sack. Brevard had two fumble recoveries against Nebraska. The senior is joined in the defensive line by Jeffrey M’Ba and Joe Anderson.
Prediction
Ohio State has a chance to breathe over the next two weeks before closing out the regular season with Indiana and Michigan. The Buckeyes have had two Top 5 battles on the road over the last month, with a closer than expected game against Nebraska sandwiched in between. With Purdue and Northwestern these next two weeks, Ohio State will be taking on two of the worst teams in the conference.
One area where the Buckeyes should focus on against the Boilermakers and Wildcats is getting off to a fast start. There have been a number of games this year where Ohio State has come out sluggish. Last week against Penn State, the Buckeyes found themselves in a 10-0 hole with five minutes to go in the first quarter.
The quicker Ohio State handles their business, the sooner they can pull their starters and give them some more rest ahead of their important final two weeks of the regular season. Don’t let Will Howard and the rest of the talented skill players take any unnecessary hits.
Purdue just doesn’t have the offense to even stay within shouting distance of the Buckeyes. With their struggles to move the football, there could be numerous short drives, which will put even more stress on a defense that is going to be taxed by one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Falling behind early will also make the Boilermakers even more predictable since they don’t run the football all that much despite having two capable running backs. With as much as they’ll likely have to throw the football, the Ohio State defense can tee off on Hudson Card since they won’t have to respect the run as much.
Expect big games from Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson since the offensive line will be playing with renewed confidence after what they were able to do on the ground against Penn State last week. Ohio State is just too deep for Purdue to handle and the Buckeyes build on a big halftime lead to earn their first easy win in over a month.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 51, Purdue 10