The Buckeyes battle the Ducks in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
Ohio State has had a potential rematch with Oregon in its sights ever since it lost a 32-31 game at Autzen Stadium back on Oct. 12. The Buckeyes expected that rematch to be in the Big Ten title game, but instead they had to wait until the Rose Bowl, where both sides are looking to continue their hunt for a national title.
Now, coming off a huge victory over Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoff, Ryan Day and his team will hope to seize momentum and get revenge on a program that has come into the conference and taken over as the new top dogs — at least for now.
Here are some of the key matchups to watch when Ohio State and Oregon face-off on New Year’s Day at 5:00 p.m. ET:
Ohio State OL vs. Oregon DL
It seems blatantly obvious to state that any football game will be won in the trenches. That being said, there may be no bigger determining factor in the Rose Bowl than the play of Ohio State’s offensive line against Oregon’s defensive line.
The Buckeyes’ front held up well against the Ducks in their previous meeting back in October, allowing only one sack and just three tackles for loss. However, that was an Ohio State offensive line that featured a healthy Seth McLaughlin, as well as Josh Simmons before his injury early in the second quarter. Neither of those two will be suiting up this time around, and in their place will be Donovan Jackson sliding over to tackle, Carson Hinzman at center and a rotating cast of Austin Siereveld, Luke Montgomery and Tegra Tshabola at the guard spots.
Ohio State is missing some pieces, and Oregon has actually gotten healthier since the previous matchup. The Ducks were without defensive lineman Jordan Burch earlier in the year, and in nine games played this season the senior is second on the team with 8.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Throw in Matayo Uiagalelei and Derrick Harmon, both of whom played well against the Buckeyes last time, and it is likely the best defensive line Ohio State has seen or will see as a unit this year.
Will Howard had a tremendous game against Oregon at Autzen, throwing for a season-high 326 yards with three total touchdowns. The rushing attack was good but not great, averaging 4.3 yards per carry as a team led by TreVeyon Henderson’s 10 carries for 87 yards — albeit 53 of which came on one long run. Ohio State will need to put up points to beat this Oregon team, and they can’t do that if they are unable to get out of their own backfield all afternoon.
Jeremiah Smith vs. Jabbar Muhammad
While Howard had one of his best games of the year against this Oregon defense, so too did Jeremiah Smith. The freshman phenom hauled in a season-high nine catches against the Ducks for 100 yards and a touchdown, one of four 100-yard games for the talented receiver this season. Coming off an impressive performance against Tennessee, tallying six grabs for 103 yards and two TDs, the Ducks’ secondary knows they must key in on Smith in Pasadena.
That group is led by Washington transfer Jabbar Muhammad. The senior corner is tied for the Big Ten lead with 11 pass breakups on the year, coming off a campaign wherein he tallied 16 PBUs with the Huskies. Muhammad is joined in the secondary by cornerback Nikko Reed and safety Tysheem Johnson, with the duo combining for five interceptions this season. These guys, among others, will be tasked with slowing down the five-star freshman and preventing a repeat performance from their prior matchup.
Smith has looked completely un-guardable when Ohio State features him in its offense, and will likely draw more than a handful of double teams on Wednesday. That could potentially open up more plays for Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, both of whom are more than capable of putting the team on their backs. If Howard and Smith can connect like they did against the Volunteers a little over a week ago, Muhammad and co. will have their hands full.
Denzel Burke vs. Evan Stewart
As the Oregon secondary is busy trying to lock down Jeremiah Smith, the Ohio State secondary is going to have to find a way to prevent another dominant performance for Ducks receiver Evan Stewart. The Texas A&M transfer had a huge game against the Buckeyes in October, catching seven passes for 149 yards — his season-high — and a touchdown. Most of that was matched up against Denzel Burke, who did not have a banner night in Eugene.
Similar to Ohio State, Oregon has a three-headed monster at wide receiver in Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and Stewart. Johnson leads the pack with 78 catches for 866 yards and 10 touchdowns, followed by Stewart with 48 receptions for 631 yards and eight TDs and then Holden right behind him with 38 grabs for 602 yards and three scores. The Buckeyes can’t hold all of the trio down all game, but they need to limit another massive performance like Stewart’s in their prior meeting.
Burke has gotten better as the season has gone along, as have Davison Igbinosun and Jordan Hancock, with a spectacular safety duo behind them in Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom. All of those guys will have to be at the top of their game to limit Dillon Gabriel and this Oregon passing attack.
They will hopefully get some help from a defensive front that has been much improved after a massive overhauling following that earlier loss to the Ducks. The Buckeyes need to get more pressure from their D-line to prevent their guys being out on an island against these talented receivers. That being said, Burke will have to be able to make plays when his number is called.
Ryan Day vs. His Demons
It has been a true Jekyll and Hyde last two games for Ohio State, losing to a bad Michigan team in stunning fashion before completely dominating a Tennessee team that finished third in the SEC. The story for the Buckeyes heading into this big contest, as has been the case for the last several seasons, will be which version of Ryan Day shows up in Pasadena.
When good Ryan Day shows up, Ohio State plays to its strengths. The Buckeyes run an up-tempo offense that caters to its treasure trove of five-star receivers and uses a dynamic passing game to then set up the ground attack, making them nearly impossible to stop against any defense. When the bad Ryan Day shows up, Ohio State plays conservative. The Buckeyes rely heavily on the run game regardless of the results, and the entire game plan seems designed with the goal of trying not to lose rather than trying to win.
If Ohio State gets the good Ryan Day on Wednesday, the Buckeyes have a real chance to knock off the No. 1 team in the country and continue on a war path towards a national title. If they instead get bad Ryan Day, the Buckeyes will lose by at least two scores, ending their season and likely prompting a search for a new head coach. While it seems more likely than not Ohio State would trot out a similar scheme that led to an easy victory over Tennessee, it is impossible to know for sure until the team takes the field.
There is no guarantee that the best version of Day will come away victorious against Oregon, but we know for sure what the outcome will be if it’s the alternative.