Ohio State’s Big Ten Tournament path is eerily similar to last season’s

The 10th-seeded Buckeyes will take on 15-seed Iowa Wednesday night in the first round, just like last season.

Different circumstances, but an identical path:

A lot has changed since last March: a new (permanent) head coach, a new roster, a new Big Ten conference with 18 teams instead of 14, and a new Big Ten Tournament format that excludes the bottom three teams from the fun.

What hasn’t changed, however, is Ohio State’s path to making the NCAA Tournament.

Like last year, the Buckeyes are once again matched up with the Iowa Hawkeyes in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Last season, interim head coach Jake Diebler led the 10th-seeded Buckeyes to a 90-78 victory over the 7th-seeded Hawkeyes in the opening round.

Despite winning five games in a row to get their record to 20-11, the Buckeyes were still on the outside looking in, and a win over No. 2 Illinois would’ve helped throw them into the bubble mix. They weren’t able to do that, sending the Illini to the free throw line 32 times and losing by three points.

Jump forward a year later, and Ohio State is in a comically similar situation.

The Buckeyes (17-14, 9-11) are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, listed as an 11 seed as of Sunday night, and the second-to-last team included in the tournament field, according to Bracket Matrix. Even with this weekend’s loss to Indiana, Ohio State is still hanging on to the cliff that is the NCAA Tournament, but only by a pinky.

Like last year, they’ll start what they hope is a long Big Ten Tournament run by facing off with the Iowa Hawkeyes. Like last year, Ohio State is the No. 10 seed. Unlike last year, Iowa is not the No. 7 seed — instead, they snuck into the No. 15 seed on the final day, beating Nebraska in Lincoln to snap a three-game losing streak and keep their thin NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

If Ohio State finds a way to beat Iowa’s fiery offense in the Big Ten Tournament for the third season in a row, they’ll square off with — you guessed it — the Illinois Fighting Illini. Last season, Illinois was the No. 2 seed and after sneaking past the pesky 10-seed Buckeyes were able to go on and win the conference tournament.

Despite falling slightly from last year to this year, Illinois is still fully capable of making a run in this tournament. A win over the 7th seed may be enough to get the Buckeyes into the big dance.

Should the Buckeyes make it to Friday, they’d face the Maryland Terrapins for the third time this season. Maryland thrashed Ohio State in College Park back in December, 83-59. Ohio State evened the season series between the two teams in February, surviving over the Terrapins, 73-70.

What does Ohio State need to do?

Ohio State needed several teams in front of them to stumble last year to make the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes got to the bubble party too late, weren’t able to make up enough ground at the very end, and wound up in the NIT. A win over Illinois may have gotten last year’s team into the tournament, but after seeing how many good teams were left out, they probably needed one, or maybe even two more wins beyond Illinois.

It’s not the same this season.

Heading into this year’s conference tournament, Ohio State’s spot in the NCAA Tournament is tenuous, but far more realistic than last season. Even with 14 losses, the Buckeyes have benefitted from a “weak bubble.” By that, I mean all of the teams that are floating around in that 11-seed range have been just as mediocre as Ohio State. Plus, the group of teams that could potentially swipe Ohio State’s spot are shrinking by the day. The Buckeyes’ record is nothing special, but there just aren’t many teams whose resume warrants leaping over Ohio State right now, especially if they add another win or two to their record this week.

Beating Iowa in Indianapolis Wednesday night may not improve Ohio State’s standing in the bracket, but it would keep them right where they are. If the Buckeyes go 1-1 this week, their fate will lie in the hands of the “bid stealers” — teams who win their conference tournaments to earn bids and “crash” the NCAA Tournament despite not being good enough to earn an at-large bid.

For example, NC State was not going to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team last season, but went on to win five games in five days and earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Because of this, five ACC teams made the tournament, rather than four, which left one fewer bid for the “bubble teams.” Ohio State’s odds of making the NCAA Tournament will drop drastically with every additional bid stealer this week.

So, if Ohio State wins one game (Iowa) and then loses to Illinois, the Buckeyes could still make the tournament, but they’ll be playing with fate. One or two bid stealers could push them out of the field. Two wins, or even three, would put them in a much better spot heading into Selection Sunday.

Without knowing how many teams will steal bids this week in conference tournaments, here’s my prediction: Two wins gets Ohio State into the NCAA Tournament as a Dayton First Four team.