The Buckeyes can get one step closer to a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win over Indiana on Saturday.
Ohio State enters the week at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in Big Ten play, with its only loss of the season coming in a 32-31 road contest against now-No. 1 Oregon. Despite the one blemish on the record, all of the Buckeyes’ major goals still remain ahead of them, including a spot in the B1G title game and a trip to the College Football Playoff.
In order for Ohio State to make it to Indianapolis, they will have to defeat Indiana this coming Saturday. The Hoosiers remain unbeaten, with a 10-0 record overall and a 7-0 mark in-conference. Curt Cignetti’s group managed to avoid both Oregon and Penn State on this year’s schedule, and have dominated everyone else in their path aside from Michigan, who played Indiana close but ultimately fell short in a 20-15 battle in Week 11.
Now, the Hoosiers head to Columbus, with the winner sitting in a favorable spot to play in the Big Ten title game against Oregon.
Should Ohio State emerge victorious, the two programs would have equal conference records of 7-1, and the Buckeyes would get the nod in a tie-breaker based on the head-to-head win. Ryan Day’s group would still need to defeat Michigan in the season finale to officially clinch their spot, whereas Indiana would be virtually locked in for the B1G title game with a victory over Ohio State, barring a catastrophic loss to a 1-9 Purdue team to end the year.
In the incredibly unlikely scenario that Indiana beats Ohio State but then loses to the Boilermakers, it would actually be Penn State that plays in the title game based on tiebreakers.
The Buckeyes would be out at 7-2 in-conference, whereas the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions would own equal 8-1 B1G records, also with identical records against common opponents (3-1 against Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA and Washington). It would then come down to the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, which favors Penn State and gets James Franklin’s group to Indy.
You got all that?
Moving on to the College Football Playoff…
The only guaranteed lock at this point to make the CFP from the Big Ten is Oregon. In the unlikely event the Ducks were to lose their final game of the regular season against Washington, they have already clinched a spot in the B1G title game. Even if they were to also lose to any one of Ohio State, Indiana or Penn State — who would all be top-five teams should they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium — Oregon would not be left out of the field of 12 at 11-2 having banked impressive wins against the Buckeyes and a top-15 Boise State team.
There are three other Big Ten teams that remain in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff: Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State.
Ohio State’s path to the CFP is pretty obvious: win at least one of its last two games. If the Buckeyes defeat both Indiana and Michigan, they are in regardless of whether or not they get revenge against Oregon in the B1G title game. If they lose to Indiana but beat Michigan, they still get in at 10-2 with their only losses to No. 1 and No. 5 and a win over then-No. 3 Penn State. The same is true if they defeat the Hoosiers but lose to the Wolverines, as wins over No. 3 and No. 5 would be good enough even without a trip to Indy.
There is a small chance Ohio State could even make the College Football Playoff if it lost its last two games, although its resume at 9-3 with one quality win over Penn State would probably not be enough unless things broke the Buckeyes’ way elsewhere in the rankings.
Indiana’s path is a bit more precarious. Fair or not, it is clear that the selection committee is weary of the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule, currently sitting behind three one-loss teams despite being unbeaten. If Indiana beats Ohio State, it is almost certainly going to go undefeated in the regular season, and would be in with or without a win against Oregon in Indy. If the Hoosiers lose to the Buckeyes, thereby missing the B1G title game, it would be a little murky whether or not the committee would put them in even at 10-2 without a single ranked win on its ledger.
Personally, I think this Indiana team is a lot better than most of the two and three-loss slop the SEC has provided this season, and the Hoosiers would still be deserving of a CFP bid if they lose a close game to Ohio State. If Indiana gets blown out in Columbus — which seems unlikely — then it becomes a bit of a different story.
Penn State, meanwhile, is likely going to earn an at-large bid as long as it wins its final two regular season games against Minnesota and Maryland. The Nittany Lions’ resume is not that much better than Indiana’s, but considering their brand recognition and the fact that they’re already ranked ahead of the Hoosiers shows the committee’s feelings towards them.
Penn State’s only ‘ranked’ win is a victory over then-No. 19 Illinois, and their wins would be against Big Ten opponents with a combined conference record of 22-37, compared to Indiana’s opponents with a 17-41 record (factoring in both teams’ remaining games should IU lose to Ohio State).
The only real difference in the resumes between Penn State and Indiana, aside from recruiting rankings and the logos on the helmets influencing peoples’ perception of both programs, are their non-conference slates. The Nittany Lions at least played a P4 opponent in West Virginia — albeit one that is currently 5-5 — alongside a pair of MAC teams in Bowling Green and Kent State. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, played a now 3-8 FCS team in Western Illinois, as well as Florida International (C-USA) and Charlotte (American), both of whom are now 3-7.
The best case scenario for the Big Ten is to get four teams into the College Football Playoff. Oregon can be written in Sharpie, and Ohio State will likely be there as well barring a complete collapse. Penn State will be in if it can win its final two games, and Indiana should be rewarded with a spot whether it beats the Buckeyes or not.
The SEC will probably get four teams in (unless they undeservingly get five or six based on nothing but conference perception, which is incorrect), the ACC and Big 12 will each get one plus one Group of Five team and Notre Dame. That leaves one or two spaces open for the Hoosiers, who are certainly among the nation’s best 12 teams this season.