Revisiting Julian Fleming’s transfer decision a year later

Did the former Ohio State wideout make a good decision in leaving Columbus for his final season of eligibility?

Just over a year ago, on Dec. 3, 2023, wide receiver Julian Fleming announced he was leaving Ohio State after four years to enter the transfer portal.

The move was a little surprising, as Fleming had been able to get playing time as a Buckeye since his freshman year. He was coming off a season in which he finished third among OSU wideouts in both catches (26) and yardage (270) behind Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.

Harrison Jr. was a virtual lock to enter the NFL Draft after the season, and many assumed Egbuka would turn pro as well, not announcing his return for another year until Jan. 11. Fleming figured to become a key part of the Buckeye offense entering 2024, but he chose to finish out his college career elsewhere.

A month later, on Jan. 3, Fleming committed to Penn State. Even if the choice to transfer was a bit of a surprise, his destination was not. Fleming had played high school football not far from Happy Valley at Southern Columbia High. The receiver was highly coveted by the Nittany Lions and other schools coming out of high school, opting to commit to Ohio State May 31, 2019.

He seemed an excellent fit for Ohio State’s talented wide receiver group at the time, going on to finish out his high school year by claiming 2019 PennLive Pennsylvania Player of the Year and 2019 Gatorade Pennsylvania Player of the Year honors. He was the top wide receiver and overall player in ESPN’s recruiting rankings was ranked the No. 2 overall player by 247Sports.

Fleming’s college career started strong during his freshman season, as he played in seven games and caught seven passes for 74 yards in the pandemic-shortened year. He posted more yards and more yards per game than another OSU freshman named Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

But Fleming’s time at Ohio State was hampered by injuries, limiting his playing time. He appeared in eight games as a sophomore in 2021, catching 12 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. His first career score came in a win against Michigan State on Nov. 20, 2021.

In 2022, Fleming managed to get into 11 games for Ohio State while still fighting through some knocks, finishing third on the OSU receiving chart behind Harrison and Egbuka, establishing new career highs in receptions (34), yards (533), and touchdowns (6). Fleming’s time seemed to be arriving at last.

But his 2023 numbers dipped despite him playing in a career-high 12 games. His 26 catches and 270 yards were both lower than the year before, and he also didn’t get into the end zone at all. Nevertheless, it seemed as though Fleming would make a bigger impact in his final season.

However, he opted for a fresh start at Penn State. Who could blame him? After all, he’d seen teammate Jameson Williams leave the program and find great success at Alabama. Why not Fleming?

Upon his commitment to Penn State, Fleming cited a desire to be closer to home, but he also said he wanted to win a Big Ten championship. He didn’t do the latter, although Penn State did reach the conference title game. Fleming did not catch a pass against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Taking Fleming’s season as a whole (so far, as there are still games to be played), there is no real price to put on being closer to home or being more comfortable with your situation. And his team is still alive in the College Football Playoff, so his move to Penn State may yet prove to be a wise decision.

However, at this point in the season, it’s difficult not to see his transfer as a lateral move, at best, or a step backward in terms of his development as a player and an attempt to improve his draft stock for the NFL.

Fleming has appeared in 14 games for the Nittany Lions in 2024. He has 14 receptions this season for 176 yards and one touchdown. Aside from his touchdown total and games played, all of his numbers have dropped from his last year in Columbus.

His rankings among al Nittany Lions pass catchers are as follows:

• Receptions: sixth (14)
• Yards: sixth (176)
• Touchdowns: tied for seventh (1)
• Yards per game: seventh (12.57)
• Receptions per game: seventh (1.0)
• Yards per game: sixth (12.6)

Cutting out the Penn State tight ends and running backs and comparing Fleming only to other Penn State wide receivers, he is currently fourth in all of those categories except touchdowns, in which he is currently tied for third with Liam Clifford.

It’s hard to imagine Fleming not having improved upon every one of those numbers had he stayed at Ohio State for his final season of eligibility. In one fewer game, Ohio State’s No. 4 wide receiver in terms of production so far is Brandon Inniss, who has played in one fewer game than Fleming — owing to not playing in the B1G championship — and has 13 receptions for 157 yards and one touchdown.

That is similar production by the sophomore to what Fleming has done at Penn State, but there’s almost no scenario in which a healthy Fleming doesn’t play ahead of Inniss at Ohio State and probably takes some of Carnell Tate’s snaps as well, as Fleming has shown proficiency (and has experience) in his perimeter blocking.

It’s uncertain if Fleming made his decision already knowing that Egbuka would return for 2024, and Jeremiah Smith may not have ultimately wavered in his decision to come to Ohio State, but few veteran players would have factored that into their decision. If Egbuka had gone pro and Smith had flipped, Fleming stood a good chance to be the primary receiver in the 2024 OSU offense, although to be fair, those two hypothetical decisions may have prompted a move by Ryan Day to the transfer portal for some help.

It’s true that Fleming’s decision to transfer came after quarterback Kyle McCord announced he was entering the portal, so there was some uncertainty about who would run the offense at the time, but Drew Allar hadn’t proven much by Dec. 3 of last year either.

Whether Fleming’s choice turned out to be in his best interest remains to be seen, as the rest of the College Football Playoff has yet to play out and his draft stock is unknown. Regardless, the two sides will hope to meet again, as it would mean both Ohio State and Penn State have made the national title game.