Rutgers could play a part in Ohio State making the NCAA Tournament — here’s how

A Rutgers win Wednesday night could also help Ohio State’s resume.

Selection Sunday is officially four days away, and if Ohio State doesn’t win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament – starting tonight against Iowa – their NCAA Tournament fate will not rest in their own hands.

By the slimmest of margins, the Buckeyes are currently considered a tournament team. They show up as an 11- or 12-seed play-in team in basically every single bracket model online. They’re often listed as the very last team in the tournament, thanks to a less-than-sterling record of 17-14 that is buoyed by three wins in particular: Purdue, Maryland, and Kentucky.

Those good wins have – to this point– offset the 14 losses, many of which ended in one-possession games that did not go Ohio State’s way. However, they’re at the very bottom of the list heading into conference championship week, which means even one or two bid stealers could knock Ohio State out.

Winning at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament would mean knocking off the Hawkeyes tonight and Illini tomorrow, would add one Quad-2 and one Quad-1 win to the resume, and would also give fans some breathing room. That would give Ohio State 19 wins, and although that doesn’t guarantee an at-large bid, would require considerably more chaos and bid-stealing to occur for the Buckeyes to not make it.

If Ohio State beats Iowa on Wednesday night but loses to Illinois, its fate will rest in the hands of the bid-stealers, the underdogs, the March darlings, and the feel-good stories. While everyone else in the country will be rooting for these Cinderellas to crash the big dance, Ohio State and its fans will be sitting at home, praying for chalk and hoping they aren’t squeezed out at the last minute.

The Buckeyes’ fate may also lie in the hands of one of their Big Ten foes this season — the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Barring the unlikely scenario where Ohio State and Rutgers meet up in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on Saturday, these two teams won’t see each other again this season. However, Ohio State fans would be wise to pay attention to the Scarlet Knights in the Big Ten Tournament, because how they do could help the Buckeyes.

Ohio State won its only matchup against Rutgers this season, beating Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey and Co. 80-66 back on December 7. The Buckeyes held the aforementioned freshmen duo below their combined season average, with Bailey scoring 12 and Harper 20.

With Rutgers currently sitting at No. 76 in the NET rankings, that win is a Quad-3 win for the Buckeyes. It does very little for their resume, and despite being a conference win, is viewed as empty calories.

One of several metrics that the NCAA Tournament committee is looking at and will continue to examine this weekend is a team’s record in Quad-1 and Quad-2 games. Right now Ohio State is well below .500 in those two categories combined, with a 6-11 record in Q1 games and 3-3 in Q2.

If Rutgers beats USC on Wednesday night, they would pick up a Q2 win themselves. That could potentially scoot the Scarlet Knights up in the NET one spot to 75, which would then change Ohio State’s home win over Rutgers in December from a Quad-3 to a Quad-2 victory – no longer empty calories!

Since this scenario is only relevant with the assumption that Ohio State does in fact beat Iowa, it would mean that in a two-hour window, Ohio State could pick up not one, but two Q2 wins. That would make them 11-14 in Quad-1 and Quad-2 combined. When the margins are so incredibly thin between the Buckeyes and other bubble teams, that could be the difference between making the tournament or not.

Ideally, the Buckeyes would like to be at least .500 in those two categories combined, but that’s not going to happen without an extended Big Ten or NCAA Tournament run. Ohio State may also get credit for scheduling well if it was to play out that way – 25 of its 32 games would be in one of those two categories if the Buckeyes beat Iowa and Rutgers beats USC.

So, if you’re reading this late on Thursday morning and Ohio State got bounced by Iowa last night, this no longer applies. But if you’re reading this on Thursday morning and Ohio State is still playing basketball, go check last night’s scores – maybe Rutgers left Ohio State a present.