Quinshon Judkins seems like a reliable money maker on Monday night.
I don’t know about you, but I have been thoroughly enjoying the College Football Playoff thus far, especially all three of Ohio State’s games. And with only one game left in the season, I am planning on enjoying it as much as humanly possible. Obviously, the Buckeyes winning the national title would bring the most enjoyment, but to juice things up, I have a bit of money riding on the game.
In January, I placed a $100 bet on the Buckeyes to win the national total getting +450 odds. Not a bad payday if that one comes in. Then, I’ve also got a parlay that’s a bit of a longshot, but something I could see happening. I’ve got under 46 points, OSU -2.5 in the first quarter, -7.5 in the first half, and -8 for the game. That first half number has me the most worried, but I was definitely betting with my heart instead of my head. It’s got +525 odds, so if it pays off, I will turn my $50 bet into $312.50, which would be a nice bonus on top of a Buckeye victory.
However, if you are looking for a few more exotic bets to tickle your fancy, I was poking around FanDuel’s sportsbook and found some fun prop bets that might be worth putting some money down on to give you a little extra enjoyment from Monday night’s festivities.
Any Time Touchdown Scorer
It is fascinating to me that the Vegas bookmakers have three Buckeyes scoring touchdowns before the first Irish player on the board. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who was thoroughly stymied by the Texas Longhorns in the semifinals, less the way at -135.
That means that if you want to win $100 on J.J. scoring a touchdown, you have to bet $135. Similarly, OSU’s goal-line running back Quinshon Judkins is at -105. However, Treveyon Henderson — who we know can score from anywhere — is at +105. That means that if you bet $100 and Trey does score, you will profit $105 (in addition to getting your initial bet back).
Notre Dame’s top player on the board is running back Jeremiyah Love at +135. While he makes the most sense if you are going to bet on an ND player, he has been beat up in recent weeks and only rushed for 46 yards on 11 carries against Penn State, although he did find the end zone once.
The quarterbacks in the game — both of whom can run — are in the next pack with Notre Dam QB Riley Leonard at +140, given how important his running abilities are in the Irish offense and OSU’s Will Howard is at +320. Now, keep in mind that touchdown passes do not count to win this bet. It has to be the person who possesses the ball in the end zone.
If I just wanted to win some money and didn’t care about how much or the implied value of the bet, I would go with Judkins. He has become the back that Ryan Day and Chip Kelly turn to in goal-to-go situations, and I feel confident that the Buckeyes will have at least a couple of those in this game.
But, if I was looking for something with a little longer odds to make the bet worth my financial while, I would go with the Ohio State defense at +650. Obviously, we remember Jack Sawyer’s game-sealing strip sack-fumble-recovery-touchdown run in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, but there’s more to it than that.
While Leonard has thrown a respectable eight interceptions this season, against Penn State’s stout defense in the Orange Bowl, he threw it away twice on fairly ugly plays. So, given how aggressive Jim Knowles’ defense has been in the playoffs at generating pressure on quarterbacks, I think there’s a bet to be made on that one, especially given the potential return on investment.
To Score 2+ Touchdowns
What I like about these props is that like the OSU defense scoring a touchdown prop above, all of the odds are long enough to make it interesting. Sure, you can take the safe bets like “Will Ohio State score a touchdown?”, but where’s the fun in that (ok, I will concede that making any money in sports betting is fun, but I want moooore fun).
Like above, if I was going to go with the player that I thought gave me the best chance of jus making money, I would stick with Judkins. I think Smith has a great shot as well, but we saw that a defense can effectively eliminate him from the game if they so choose, I don’t think the same can be said for Quinshon.
The Ole Miss transfer has scored two TDs in each of the last two games and is running with a ferocity that makes him invaluable in short-yardage situations.
But, again, if I’m looking to spice things up, I’d go with Carnell Tate. While Emeka Egbuka is probably a better bet to get two TDs against Notre Dame, Tate’s number is twice that of Egbuka’s. The senior wide receiver is set at +950 while the sophomore is +1900.
In the Cotton Bowl game against Texas, when the Horns put three guys on Smith on nearly every pass play, that opened things up for Tate to be the team’s leading receiver with seven targets for 87 yards. He didn’t find the end zone, but we know that if Al Golden’s Irish defense decides to key in on the freshman phenom, we know that Will Howard will feel very comfortable going to Tate; and that makes these odds intriguing. If you want to play it safe, you can bet just $10 to take home $200 (including your initial bet back). A $50 bet would get you a payout of $1,000.
Notre Dame’s First Drive Result
When it comes to what the Fighting Irish have been able to do on their early possessions in the postseason, a fairly obvious trend has emerged. Against the Indiana Hoosiers in the opening round in South Bend, Leonard threw an interception on the opening drive, before ND scored touchdowns on its next two possessions.
Then in the Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame punted on its first two drives before kicking a field goal, punting, and kicking another field goal. The Irish then closed out the first half with a touchdown. And finally, against Penn State, they went punt-interception-punt before getting on the board at the end of the first half with a field goal.
So, to me, it seems pretty clear that the play to make here is “Punt.” Again, at -145, that’s not going to bring you much profit unless you bet it big, but given that Ohio State has not allowed a touchdown in the first 25 minutes of any playoff game thus far, I’d feel fairly comfortable putting some dollar dolla bills, y’all on this one.