The Buckeyes have their backs against the wall, seeding-wise. Here’s what the Buckeyes need to do to solidify a top-16 seed
For the past two seasons, the start of the NCAA Tournament went through Columbus, Ohio. Unlike the men’s tournament, the women’s edition features the top-16 teams in the 68-team field hosting the first two rounds of the tournament. From there, the four brackets more to two regional locations. This season, the Buckeyes hosting isn’t a sure bet like last season when the Scarlet and Gray entered a No. 2 seed.
This year, Ohio State sits at No. 16 in the top-16 released by the NCAA Tournament committee. Fall one more spot and the Buckeyes have to pack up and get on the road to one of the 16 locations.
The Buckeyes don’t only avoid lengthy travel to possibly as far west as California and as far south as Austin, Texas, but get to play at home where Ohio State is 15-0 this season.
Here’s what the Scarlet and Gray have to do in order to make sure it happens.
Win
Simple enough, but it is the only area where the Buckeyes are in complete control. It begins Sunday when Ohio State travels to College Park, Maryland to face the No. 18 Maryland Terrapins.
On Jan. 23, the Buckeyes defeated the Terrapins in Columbus, 74-66. In that game, both Maryland guards Shyanne Sellers and Bri McDaniel missed due to injury. For McDaniel, it was an ACL tear earlier in January that rules the Terrapin’s sixth player out until likely halfway through the 25-26 season. Sellers missed due to a knee injury sustained against the Texas Longhorns three days prior.
Going to Maryland is a quad one game, meaning the toughest level of competition according to the NCAA’s NET rankings. The quad system, combined with NET rankings, helps the tournament committee work on more than AP voters or the eye test. Right now, the Buckeyes are 3-3 in quad one games. A win against the Terps is one step in the right direction.
The higher quality result, the more it weighs in the NET rankings. Now, it’s not the only metric the committee will look at, but it’s an important one nonetheless. Playing away from home, against a team ranked No. 26 in the NET rankings, through Thursday’s games, will only help Ohio State’s cause.
After that, the Scarlet and Gray need to get a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State can’t afford a repeat of last year’s lopsided tournament defeat to the Terps if it hopes to hold on to a starting spot. There’s also a strong chance that game is a quad one contest, with Ohio State the No. 3 seed in the tournament (not officially until the end of Sunday’s games). That lines up with potential games against Illinois, Indiana or Michigan, amongst others.
Win two games and that will likely cement hosting duties with either the USC Trojans or UCLA Bruins on their side of the conference tournament bracket. The loser of Saturday night’s monumental game between the Bruins and Trojans will be the program on Ohio State’s side of the bracket.
Ohio State doesn’t have to win the whole thing, although fans would love to see a tournament trophy in the cabinet, the first one since Kelsey Mitchell led the Buckeyes in 2018.
No More Alabama Upsets
This is not for the Buckeyes. What Ohio State can’t control is what happens to teams near the bottom or just outside of the top-16. Take Thursday night for instance. The No. 20 Alabama Crimson Tide welcomed the No. 7 LSU Tigers and with former Buckeye guard Diana Collins playing extra minutes due to teammates in foul trouble, Alabama upset LSU at home.
Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images
That win moved Alabama up two spots in the NET rankings, with a commentator at the end of the game even saying that the win could put Alabama in the top-16. Now, take what commentators say with a grain of salt, especially when it’s an SEC Network commentator on an SEC Network broadcast, but Alabama sits two spots ahead of the Buckeyes now in the NET.
Ohio State doesn’t need Alabama going to Norman, Oklahoma on Sunday and beating the Oklahoma Sooners for a second straight upset. That could be all the side needs, giving Alabama a 6-6 record in quad one games, playing in five more than the Buckeyes this season.
Key Losses for Other Teams
Teams near Ohio State in the top-16 are the Kansas State Wildcats at No. 15, Kentucky Wildcats at No. 14, Sooners at No. 13 and Tennessee Volunteers at No. 11.
Kentucky didn’t do the Buckeyes any favors on Thursday, beating up the Vols in Lexington in an 82-58 victory. Head coach Kenny Brooks’ Wildcats have one game remaining in the regular season, against the South Carolina Gamecocks, in Columbia, South Carolina.
For the Wildcats of Kansas, they have one game left in the regular season, against the Iowa State Cyclones. Depending on the availability of center Ayoka Lee, Iowa State has a chance to upset the Wildcats and possibly fall below the Buckeyes. The two sides went to overtime on Jan. 30, with Kansas State pulling away with the home victory. Ohio State fans need center Audi Crooks and the Cyclones to upset K-State.
The teams outside of the top-16 are the most dangerous. Outside of the aforementioned Crimson Tide, the West Virginia Mountaineers, Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels are sides battling for hosting duties and all three are ahead of the Buckeyes in NET.
Baylor is on a nine-game winning streak, including ranked wins against K-State and West Virginia. The Bears face the TCU Horned Frogs at home Sunday afternoon, with the winner earning sole possession of the Big 12 regular season championship. A TCU win might hold off Baylor from kicking the Buckeyes out of contention. Baylor’s last loss was coincidentally against Hailey Van Lith and the Horned Frogs, losing by five points away from home back on Jan. 26.
Ole Miss fell to the Gamecocks Thursday night and face the Tigers on Sunday, the first game for LSU since their loss to Alabama.
These are only regular season matchups too. Then the Buckeyes need slip-ups in conference tournaments.
The one thing that could have helped even more was a tougher non-conference schedule, which can’t be changed now. Head coach Kevin McGuff had a clear strategy in mind to allow his young team with three new starters time to mesh. It’s easier to do that winning games than falling to top ranked teams.
Host March Madness or not, how the Buckeyes play on Sunday and in the Big Ten Tournament are good indicators of postseason success. Over the last two games, Ohio State is playing their best basketball of the season and at the right time. Should those performances continue, where the Scarlet and Gray sleep at night may not have much of an impact.