Two writers try to preemptively take the sting out of their team potentially losing.
It’s not often here at Land-Grant Holy Land that we get to do an article featuring two of our writers who graduated from schools that are facing each other in a college football game. While we do have some Ohio State-loving MAC school grads on our writer rosters, I venture to say that for those games the former Kent State Flashes would probably prefer Ohio State to win.
However, today is a bit different as our women’s basketball beat writer Thomas Costello is a Penn State grad. But instead of trash-talking with OSU alum Matt Tamanini, they are going to do what all good Buckeye and Nittany Lion fans do, they are going to be pessimistic, cynical, and misanthropic.
So, here in the first — and probably last (until OSU and PSU play again) — installment of a new column we are calling “Why My Team Will Lose.”
Thomas’ Take: Why his alma mater will lose
At Land-Grant Holy Land, I’m the site’s women’s basketball beat writer and resident Penn State graduate. When it comes to basketball coverage, the focus stays down the middle, even when the Buckeyes are facing the Penn State Nittany Lions.
However, when it comes to football, my sports fandom heart has the same name etched on it as is on my degree from Penn State University.
With that said, that same heart tells the painful truth that Penn State is not going to win this game. Here’s why.
First, it’s Ohio State and Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a whopping two wins over the Buckeyes in the last 15 editions of the cross-border rivalry.
Even when it looks like Penn State will turn the corner, Ohio State always finds a way. For a perfect example, take a look back at 2017. Penn State led by as much as 17 points in the first half and still held onto a 15-point lead to start the fourth quarter.
I don’t have to tell Ohio State fans what happened next. J.T. Barrett threw three of his four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, part of a 328-yard passing and 95-yard rushing game that ended with a soul-crushing 39-38 Penn State defeat.
There are obviously scars, but the pessimism is also wrapped in current reality, not ghosts of James Franklin losses past.
Penn State is the higher-ranked side, but the AP ranking isn’t good for much more than a stronger argument for the playoff committee and bulletin board material for unranked sides.
The Nittany Lions don’t have the home run threat like the Buckeyes and Jeremiah Smith. The freshman wide receiver, who plays more like an NFL wide receiver, is guaranteed at least a touchdown a game and is capable of the fantastic. Those touchdowns go beyond the six points on the scoreboard and give the Buckeyes momentum to add more.
What makes matters worse, Smith has the same birthday as me (I won’t talk about the number of years difference between the dates on the calendar), rubbing his skill in my face even more.
For the Nittany Lions, they have to try and score against a Buckeyes defense that’s ranked in the top three for lowest rushing and passing totals allowed. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be the defensive focus because the Nittany Lions still haven’t completely addressed their need for their own big play threat down the field.
The closest Penn State has is tight end Tyler Warren. If you haven’t watched the Nittany Lions yet this season, you’ll hear multiple times from the over-ecstatic commentators how Warren’s lined up as a tight end, running back, wide receiver, quarterback, and even center this season. Warren leads the team with 559 receiving yards, with the closest wide receiver with 200 less than the Swiss Army knife tight end.
Not exactly the most diverse attacking threat.
Penn State will mask this through Andy Kotelnicki’s offensive schemes hiding what the real plan is with multiple formation shifts on each play.
It’s the same kind of smoke and mirrors that Franklin will implore this week with the question marks around the availability of Drew Allar. While the native-Ohioan did get hurt in the win over the Wisconsin Badgers, it feels like there’s a bit of “Tom Brady is always on the injury report” from the Penn State staff. A bold move.
There’s a lot of hope from Penn State fans that this is the year that the power shifts, especially playing in Happy Valley. Even so, it doesn’t feel right. It feels like another heartbreaker.
Matt’s Take: Why his alma mater will lose
Abdul Carter, Zane Durant, and Dani Dennis-Sutton.
Donovan Jackson playing out of position. Austin Siereveld stepping in to start.
We have known for years that Ohio State’s weakness was on the offensive line, and entering the second game with their best o-lineman out (Josh Simmons), the Buckeyes are going to have to reshuffle things again as it is believed that Zen Michalski, who started at left tackle last week against Nebraska will be unable to go against Penn State.
Whether that is actually to the detriment of the Buckeyes or not is still very much up in the air, but what that likely means is that Donovan Jackson will kick over from left guard to left tackle and Austin Siereveld will go from being the backup right guard to the starting left guard — a position he played earlier this season when Jackson was injured.
While I do think that this configuration is probably better for the Buckeyes than what was run out there last week, it means that Jackson — who has been spotty at best this fall — is having to play a new position, and Siereveld will have to flip the side of the line he is used to playing on — despite having experience at LG.
We hear constantly about how important it is for offensive lines to gel and have cohesiveness. While a lot of these guys have played together a lot, this will be the first time for them to line up in this arrangement. However, if the goal is to get the best five guys on the field, then I do think that this probably accomplishes that.
However, even at their best, the Ohio State offensive line has not been especially effective this season. Admittedly, I do think that the pass protection has been generally solid, but it’s the run-blocking that has been south of suspect this season. We saw against the Huskers how detrimental it can be to the running game when one side of an already deficient line is blown up by injury, so I really question the ability of this group to go up against one of the best defensive front-sevens in the country.
Now, the Nits are dealing with injury concerns of their own as Dennis-Sutton is a game-time decision. Even if he plays, you can’t expect him to be 100%, so that could negate a portion of Penn State’s ability to disrupt the run game, but I still think that the PSU defense can make things very difficult for the OSU o-line.
The only way that I see to negate this is for Chip Kelly to scheme something up for Will Howard to get the ball into the hands of the playmakers as quickly as possible. Short drops, screens, quick outs, slants, mesh, pop passes, etc. That should prevent the pass rush from causing too much damage and from having to overly rely on the traditional running game.
However, if Ohio State loses, in my opinion, it will likely be because they just can’t get enough production against an intimidating Penn State defensive front.