Even though it’s a quarterfinal matchup, this might as well be the National Championship Game.
I admit that I might be a prisoner of the moment and an unabashed homer when making statements like these, but to me, I think it is pretty clear that the Rose Bowl between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks is actually the national championship game.
Of course, anything can happen in a 60 minute-college football game, so I recognize that the team that leaves Padadena victorious isn’t guaranteed to hoist the trophy in Atlanta on Jan. 20, 2025, but to me, it’s obvious that the two best teams in college football this season will be squaring off in a quarterfinal matchup in the shadow of the gorgeous San Gabriel Mountains on Wednesday.
As I have been thinking about this matchup through my scarlet and gray-colored glasses, I’ve identified one major reason why I think Ohio State will emerge victorious and advance to play the Peach Bowl winner between the Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils… and then one reason why they won’t.
There are a lot of obvious things that could make or break the Buckeyes’ chances, and I will get to those, but I think items that I’ve identified are a bit under the radar, but nonetheless vitally important to whether or not Ryan Day’s squad is able to avenge the loss in Eugene on Oct. 12.
Why Ohio State will win: TreVeyon Henderson is playing his best football at the most important time
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With all of the discussion around Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State’s wide receivers, it is easy to forget that the Buckeyes also have two incredible running backs in their stable of offensive weapons. Though TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have each had moments of brilliance this year, it is Henderson who seems to be the one playing his best football at the most critical time of year.
Admittedly, neither Buckeye back (or anyone on OSU’s offense) had a very good day against Michigan, but other than the regular season finale, Henderson has not averaged fewer than 5.4 yards per carry since before Halloween. In fact, over the past five games (including the rivalry loss), he has averaged 7.72 ypc and against Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoff, Henderson went for 80 yards on 10 rushes including two touchdowns.
While no one is going to mistake the Buckeyes for a run-first team (as long as OSU’s head coach doesn’t lose his mind again), having a running back who can bust big plays any time he touches the ball will undoubtedly have multiple positive effects for the Ohio State offense. First, Henderson’s consistency in the run game will force Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi to devote some of the Ducks’ resources up closer to the line, meaning that Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, et. al will have less to deal with in the secondary.
Having an explosive and reliable running game will also help slow down the Oregon pass rush. According to Pro Football Focus, the Ducks have the fifth-highest defensive pressure grades in college football. The first time that these two teams met, Oregon was without all-conference defensive end Jordan Burch, and fellow All-Big Ten selection Matayo Uiagalelei had not yet emerged as the dominant force that he has been during the back half of the season.
Given all of the offensive line concerns that have plagued the Buckeyes this season, everything in the offensive game plan needs to be working in concert to give them the best chance to score against the Ducks. Therefore, you need a running back who can create for himself even when things aren’t perfectly blocked up in order to give OSU quarterback Will Howard more time in the backfield.
By virtue of Henderson being able to break big plays, the Oregon defensive will have to respect that threat, slowing down the Duck pass rush, which is a huge boon for the Buckeyes. When Howard is kept clean in the pocket, he is about as close to perfect as you can hope for from a quarterback. In those situations, the Kansas State transfer is completing 78.6% of his passes, averaging 9.8 yards per attempt (12.5 per completion), and has 24 touchdowns vs. 6 interceptions.
In Eugene in October, Henderson’s stats looked pretty good. On 10 carries, he had 87 — one of six games this season that he averaged at least 8 yards per carry. But those numbers are a bit deceiving as 53 of them came on the final play of the first quarter. So, for the bulk of the game, Henderson was averaging 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. While you can’t discount a massive gain from the stats or the scoreboard (OSU went up 14-6 two plays later), the inconsistency from the running game likely led to the Buckeyes only putting up 10 points after halftime.
So, while it might not be the most obvious part of the Buckeyes’ game, I believe that TreyVeon Henderson’s consistent ability to gain chunks of yardage on the ground will push the game in Ohio State’s favor.
Other reasons Ohio State will win:
- The Buckeyes have the best roster in the country
- Jim Knowles’ increased defensive creativity and aggression following the first meeting
- Will Howard’s elite-level accuracy
- The massive chip on the entire team and coaching staff’s shoulder
Why Ohio State will not win: Dillon Gabriel’s ability to scramble
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One of the most difficult things to defend in football is a quarterback with the ability to run. Buckeye fans have seen it time and again over the years, if a QB is able to escape the pocket, he immediately becomes a threat to do two things: first, extend plays so his wide receivers can get open, and second, pick up substantial yards on the ground.
While Ohio State’s defense more or less had its way against Tennessee in the first round of the playoffs, as the game went on, Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava did start to have some success with his legs. So much so that defensive coordinator Jim Knowles eventually used J.T. Tuimoloau to (unsuccessfully) spy him.
In the first game between Ohio State and Oregon, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel only ran the ball four times for 32 yards, but one of those runs was a 27-yard scamper in the fourth quarter that proved to be the final touchdown of the game. It was a designed option that the QB correctly kept before weaving his way through the OSU defense to pay dirt.
Gabriel, a Heisman finalist, finished with just 192 yards rushing on the season when you factor in sacks to the equation, but he has seven rushing touchdowns. However, his ability to break game-changing runs isn’t the thing that most scares me from his ability to use his legs.
In the first game between these two teams, Ohio State’s defensive philosophy was to focus on their four down defensive lineman to generate pressure and let the other seven defenders sit back in coverage. That didn’t work. With all of the time he could possibly need in the pocket, Gabriel picked apart the OSU secondary going 23-for-34 for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns. But not attempting to bring added pressure on Gabriel, the Buckeye secondary was forced to remain in coverage for extended periods of time, and no matter how good you believe your cornerbacks are, they are chasing the receivers, so eventually the offensive players will have the advantage.
Since then, Knowles and company have reshaped Ohio State’s defensive approach to be far more aggressive, multiple, and creative, especially up front. At times, we have seen the Bucks bringfar more blitzes to get to the quarterback, but in recent games, they haven’t had to because Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams, and other OSU lineman have been able to generate pressure on their own.
That is all incredibly positive for a Buckeye defense that hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game this season other than the 32 that the Ducks put up in October. So, if the Silver Bullets are able to generate pressure — with or without blitzes — that should make things far easier for the OSU secondary than it was the first time around. But the only fly in that ointment is if Gabriel’s legs allow him to improvise and extend plays, putting the pressure back on the Buckeye secondary.
OSU corner Denzel Burke had an absolutely horrific game in Eugene. Gabriel threw to receivers he was guarding seven times and every single one of those led to a completion, totaling 162 yards and two touchdowns. Between that and fellow starting cornerback Davison Igbinosun’s 13 defensive penalties this season, the Ohio State corners need to have a big game against the best non-Buckeye offense left in the playoffs.
Anyone who has watched Dillon Gabriel play during his 17 years of college football knows that he is an electric talent. While the Ohio State defense has made dramatic strides since the last time it faced Gabriel’s Ducks, the quarterback still possesses more than enough weapons to make things difficult for the Buckeyes in Pasadena on Wednesday.
Other reasons Ohio State could lose:
- There is always a chance that Ryan Day regresses back to unnecessarily conservative turtle mode
- If the offensive line can’t hold up against Oregon’s elite defensive line
- Cornerbacks can’t give up big plays via completions or penalties
- If OSU doesn’t get a pass rush again, it will be a long day