Familiarity is a theme for the Cleveland Guardians this post-season.
While the Detroit Tigers may have been a familiar foe for the Guards in 2024, the New York Yankees are a familiar post-season foe in recent Guardians history. Coming into this year, the Guards had made the playoffs four times since their 2016 World Series appearance vs. the Chicago Cubs. In those four post-season appearances, they have been vanquished by the Yankees three times.
Players like Emmanuel Clase (3 2/3 scoreless innings in 2022), Josh Naylor (.310 AVG, 2 HR, 4 doubles, rocking the baby on Gerrit Cole), Steven Kwan (.429 AVG, 4 runs in 2022), Andres Gimenez (.200 AVG, 8 Ks in 2022) and Austin Hedges (.200 AVG, 3 walks between 2020 and 2022) have a history with those previous defeats. Of course, Jose Ramirez (.277 AVG, 5 doubles, 6 RBI) has the longest tenure on the team, dating all the way back to his first taste of the playoffs in that simultaneously miraculous and tragic ’16 World Series run. But, with this year’s American League Championship Series on deck, the Guardians look to change their October fortunes against the Bronx Bombers.
Cleveland will come fresh off of an intriguing and often dramatic American League Division Series victory against the Tigers, having won their series in the full five games. The Guardians have become tested over the course of the last week, and they ultimately passed the stress that was put in front of them. With exemplary pitching performances throughout their bullpen, just enough success from their starting rotation, clutch hits and a few long balls, the Guardians are now further into the playoffs than they have been in any season since that seven-game tilt against the Cubs eight years ago.
All the things I said about the Guardians in my ALDS preview remain true. While possessing four position player All-Stars and a starting rotation that found some answers as the season progressed, they are mostly a team whose success is born out of possessing the best bullpen in all of baseball. While the media continues to peddle the idea that the Guardians have four relievers at the back end of their bullpen that are a great challenge to crack, I would suggest that not only is closer Emmanuel Clase accompanied by Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin, but also much less heralded, but just as significant reliever Eli Morgan (who saved the Guardians in the 7th inning of Game 5 vs. Detroit). All five relievers pitched to ERAs below 2.00 during the regular season.
Before we get to the bullpen though, the offense deserves a little bit of attention. In defeating Detroit, the Guardians showed all their colors as an offense. There were two losses in the middle of the series where they were shut and looked entirely lethargic, collecting just two extra-base hits and going 1-11 with runners in scoring position. But conversely, the Guardians twice scored seven runs against arguably the hottest pitching staff in the sport within the confines of the same series, including a five-run inning off of likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
Mix it all together and the Guardians hit a completely adequate .268 with runners in scoring position against Skubal and bullpen chaos in the series. They hit four home runs, all of which added to or expanded leads in games. They also walked significantly less than in the regular season, but a playoff series means seeing the other team’s best pitchers more often, so that is prone to happen.
Overall, Cleveland’s offense this regular season was about average, and so far this October we have seen the duality- both the good and the bad- that lands them as an average offense. That average offense could sputter and leave them falling short, or it could be good enough to succeed, especially when considering New York’s pitching. So, now let’s talk about that.
The Yankees possess decent starting pitching, but the Guardians will not see anyone on the hill that rivals Skubal’s proficiency. Starter Gerrit Cole usually gets all the headlines, but he had an injury plagued season that saw him not make a start until June. He was fine following elbow problems that delayed the start to his year, pitching to a 3.41 ERA, but that is still half a run higher than his career mark. While still good, this is not the lock-down, sure-thing, Gerrit Cole that we have seen before. He was also solid in the Yankees ALDS series against the Kansas City Royals, but not other-worldly, pitching to a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings.
Arguably, RHP Clark Schmidt has been New York’s best starter this season, though he also lost about three months to injury. Since returning in September, he has pitched to a 3.64 ERA, including his start against KC this post-season. While nothing has been announced, it would not surprise me to see Schmidt get the ball in Game 1 for the Yankees, with Cole being on regular rest to get the ball in Game 2.
In both cases of Cole and Schmidt, we are talking about good but not great pitching performances, and these are the best of the bunch for the Yankees’ rotation. However, things get more hairy for the Guardians when considering the Yankees bullpen, which did not allow a single run in 14 2/3 innings pitched in the ALDS.
Led by righties Clay Holmes (3.14 ERA in 63 regular season innings) and Luke Weaver (2.89 ERA in 84 innings), New York’s bullpen could prove tough to crack, though their success appears to be a phenomenon specific to the post-season. The Yankees’ bullpen was 19th in fielder-independent pitching over the course of the regular season and didn’t perform especially well down the stretch in September. But so far, manager Aaron Boone has pushed all the right buttons in the playoffs.
So in totality, New York’s pitching this season overall was pretty pedestrian. They ranked in the high teens in stats like ERA and FIP. They’re starting rotation has been alright, if not slightly underachieving, but their bullpen has suddenly found a new gear in October. If the Yankees relievers like Weaver/Holmes and Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton can stay on the same roll, this will be a hard series for the Guardians to take.
So to be successful, Cleveland has to continue to get timely extra-base hits. Their best hitters- Steven Kwan (.520 AVG in ALDS), David Fry (. 250 AVG, go-ahead home run in Game 4), Josh Naylor (.200 AVG, just 1 double in ALDS), Lane Thomas (.316 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, would have been my vote for ALDS MVP) and Jose Ramirez (.188 AVG, 1 HR, 3 walks in ALDS) must perform. If Brayan Rocchio (.375 AVG, 2 doubles) can keep swinging a hot bat, that would help. With most of New York’s best pitchers being right-handed Kyle Manzardo or Will Brennan (career .284 AVG vs. RHP) could also play a bigger role.
Let’s switch gears to the Guardians relief pitching.
Manager Stephen Vogt leaned on his bullpen heavily in the ALDS, which was partially a product of wanting to make the most of the team’s strength but also a product of utilizing circumstance. The playoff schedule, which had off days after Games 1, 2, and 4 allowed for natural rest so that Vogt could keep going back to his biggest pitchers over and over. Gaddis and Herrin, most notably, pitched in every game of the series. Clase was asked to get multi-inning saves of multiple occasions.
Ultimately, these moves were successful. The Guardians were able to thwart Detroit and move on, but it did come with a price. In the post-game coverage, pitching legend and Turner Sports analyst Pedro Martinez suggested specifically that Gaddis was visibly out of gas in Game 5. Herrin has lost velocity on his fastball during the post-season as well. While both pitchers can continue to be effective in this October tournament, it is becoming clear that Vogt needs other solutions in order to acquire outs. He cannot rely on four relief pitchers to get the bulk of his outs game after game. They will simply burn out if he does.
This scenario is compounded by the fact that the schedule will no longer be conducive to his strategy. There are only two days off in the coming ALCS- the travel days that come after Game 2 and a potential Game 5. The writing is on the wall. If the Guardians want to keep moving forward this post-season, Vogt is going to have to entrust his starting rotation to pitch deeper into games. No Guardians starter pitched later than the 5th inning in the Detroit series. In a move that would have been heavily controversial had they not advanced, Vogt pulled Matthew Boyd after 2 scoreless innings in Game 5.
If the Guardians want to win this series, not only does Vogt have to trust his starting pitchers, but those starters have to respond in kind and hold down one of the best, most star-studded offenses in the sport. Boyd (2.35 ERA in 10 starts as a Guardian) and Tanner Bibee (2.29 ERA since Sept. 1st) have been excellent down the stretch and in the playoffs, but some combination of Alex Cobb (3.26 ERA in just 4 starts this year), Joey Cantillo (2.14 ERA since Sept. 1st), Gavin Williams (4.86 ERA in 16 starts, was rostered but didn’t pitch in ALDS) and Ben Lively (3.15 ERA in last 5 appearances, didn’t make ALDS roster) is also going to have to step up. While it is likely that Cobb, Bibee and Boyd will pitch the first games of the series, who will start Game 4 is a wide-open mystery.
To the positive, Cleveland’s rotation did things against the Tigers to instill some confidence. Collectively, they pitched to a 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. They struck out 21 batters while walking seven and only allowing a single home run in the five-game series. However, they did do this while being protected from pitching deeper into ballgames.
And of course, the potential albatross for the Guardians in this series is the Yankees’ offense. It is the only unit in this series that matches the Guardians’ bullpen’s potency. First in home runs, first in BB%, and second overall in offensive production based on wRC+, the Yankees are led by likely AL Most Valuable Player outfielder Aaron Judge.
Judge slashed .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs and 144 RBI this season. He led all position players with 11.2 Wins Above Replacement. However, while Judge has a reputation as one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport, he also has built a reputation for struggling in the playoffs. He has hit only .151 in post-season play since 2021.
Judge often protects RF Juan Soto in the lineup. Added via trade for the 2024 season, Soto’s reputation as one of the best pure hitters in the sport precedes itself. Soto hit 41 home runs and scored 128 times this season while also walking more often than he struck out. He created 8.1 WAR as well, despite the fact he is a lousy outfielder.
The Yankees also added 3B/CF (interesting combo) Jazz Chisholm via trade with the Miami Marlins at the deadline this year, and the move has paid off in spades as Chisholm hit 11 home runs and stole 18 bases in 46 games as a Yankee. Chisholm added a spark, as New York went 32-23 after his addition.
Lastly, while DH Giancarlo Stanton has become more of a boom-or-bust home run candidate with age, his power must also be reckoned with. Stanton’s mobility is hobbled due to injury, but he did hit 27 home runs in 114 games this year. Both Chisholm and Stanton also hit big flies in their series vs. Kansas City. Potentially hitting in the 2 through 5 spots, navigating through Soto-Judge-Stanton-Chisholm could be quite the minefield.
To conclude…
The main story of this series will be strength vs strength: the Guardians bullpen vs. the Yankees offense. Personally, I cannot wait to see it. Over the course of a 7-game series, there is sure to be at least one instance where Clase is required to face Soto and Judge with the game on the line. In what has already been a super engaging post-season, I cannot think of a remaining match-up with more intrigue.
But while that face-off is the headline, which other units can be successful is just as important. This series will come down to whether or not Cleveland’s starters can hold the Yankees lineup down enough to give their bullpen a chance. It will come down to if the Yankees’ bullpen can remain on fire. It will come down to if Cleveland can bottle up just enough of those clutch hits and contact plays that make their offense spin against a touchable New York pitching staff.
Prediction, and let me emphasize, this is an objective prediction:
Coming into writing this, I had it in my mind that the Yankees were head and shoulders better than not just the Guardians, but every other team in the sport. After further review, there are more warts in their pitching than I expected, but it just feels like they are too talented and the heater that their bullpen finds itself on concerns me greatly.
I’m sorry, y’all. I hope I’m wrong, but I am afraid the beat goes on. Yankees in six.
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