Some exciting stuff going on here
Gavin Williams had a good first two innings of spring training, showing some changes in his pitch shape and approach to the plate.
Williams is probably the key for the Guardians’ starting rotation exceeding expectations in 2025. Of the seven projections FanGraphs offers for Williams, the average is a 3.94 ERA, which makes him a solid #4 starter. But, if he’s healthy, could he get back to or even improve on his 3.23 ERA from 2023? He will need to find a consistent out-pitch, perhaps from a slider that he struggled to command in 2024, and get back to the 2.7 runs above average he got on his fastball which was merely average last year.
In his first outing in Arizona, Williams average 97 mph on his fastball which is 0.4 mph up from his average last year (good to see in February). He also was up 2 inches of average induced vertical break on his fastball from 2024. Perhaps more excitingly, his slider was down 2.4 mph in average from last year, and up eight inches in horizontal break. If properly tunneled, a well-located slider with more sweeping action at 86 mph will pair VERY nicely with the 97-98 mph fastball. If Williams can show a curveball that was average last season and mix in the occasional changeup which is his weakest pitch, this should make for a dangerous pitch mix for opposing batters.
The additional horizontal break on the slider should enhance the effectiveness of Williams’ curveball. As seen in the clip below (including a real nice framing job), Williams has a 12-6 curveball that has more downward action than sideways motion:
If Williams can tunnel that curveball with a slider similar to this one but with more vertical break, both pitches should be cruical in helping him beat his projections:
Williams also showed an elevated horizontal release point (a few ticks above 6 foot as compared to below a few ticks below 6 foot) yesterday, which consequently reduces his extension (by about 7% yesterday). However, given that he was in the 96th percentile in extension last season, this change still leaves him with elite extension. Reduction in extension would be a good tradeoff if it can help with tunneling, command and getting that increased break on the fastball and sliders. We will see if that is, indeed, the exchange that has been made as the season continues.
It was a fun first test drive through the lineup with Big Rig, who apparently spent a good portion of his offseason with Karl Willis in North Carolina (I’d like to spend an offseason with Karl Willis, to be honest, he seems great), and has lost some weight in hopes of being at his absolute best in 2025. If the Guardians want to win the AL Central, they will need Williams healthy and at his best and yesterday was a good first step.