Analyzing ZiPS Projections for the 2025 Cleveland Guardians

Let’s take a look under the hood

The projection systems are providing readouts for the Cleveland Guardians for 2025; let’s see what the latest bunch have to say.

FanGraphs’ writer and researcher Dan Szymborski released his 2025 Cleveland Guardians projections today. I highly recommend reading his piece, where he offers additional notable insights, and subscribing to FanGraphs is certainly well-worth it. Below, I will highlight some numbers I found significant in the projections. For a further look at ZiPS’ accuracy, Dan offered a Twitter thread on it last year:

ZiPS is of special interest to me not only for the projected numbers, but for the 80th percentile projections it offers, the level of detail beneath the numbers it provides, and the historical comparisons also listed for each player.

Players Who Stand Out:

On the hitting side, Jose Ramirez is projected for another 5 win season and 135 OPS+, Steven Kwan for 3.1 and 114 OPS+, Bo Naylor with a rebound to 100 OPS+ and 2 wins, Kyle Manzardo with 120 OPS+, David Fry with 110, Johnathan Rodriguez with 109 OPS+, Lane Thomas with 106 OPS+, and Will Brennan and Chase DeLauter with 105 OPS+ a piece. Of the folks expected to compete for the second base job, ZiPS says the best hitter of the bunch is likely to be Gabriel Arias at 97 OPS+, followed by Juan Brito at 95 OPS+. Szymborski in his article mentioned that the team has a lot of depth who appear to be above replacement level players, which is a good sign for maintaining a solid floor if not necessarily providing much to dream on for a ceiling.

On the pitching side, Tanner Bibee is projected for 3 fWAR and a 3.48 FIP, Gavin Williams with a 3.84 FIP and 1.6 fWAR (in only 105 innings, so that’s over 2 fWAR if you assume he gets to 150 innings), Shane Bieber with a 3.63 ERA (but it has him down for 119 innings, which isn’t going to happen), Luis L. Ortiz with a 3.99 ERA, Joey Cantillo 4.08 ERA, Ben Lively 4.23 ERA, Logan Allen 4.26 ERA, Will Dion 4.29 ERA, and Slade Cecconi 4.37 ERA. ZiPS isn’t buying the Triston McKenzie bounceback stock, listing him with a 4.77 ERA. I get it… computers can’t measure HEART.

The bullpen looks predictably excellent with Emmanuel Clase 2.15 ERA, Cade Smith 2.93 ERA, Tim Herrin 3.30 ERA, Nic Enright 3.59 ERA, Erik Sabrowski 3.62 ERA, Trevor Stephan 3.78 ERA, Pedro Avila 3.84 ERA, Andrew Walters 3.84 ERA, Hunter Gaddis 3.91 ERA (ZiPS does have Gaddis starting 11 games, though, and I find that highly unlikely, which should lower that ERA number), and Franco Aleman at 3.95 ERA. It’ll actually be somewhat of a shock to the system if Clase, Smith, Gaddis and Herrin have their ERA’s rise even that high, which is something to keep in mind. The best strikeout rates projected on the pitching staff belong to Smith, Sabrowski, Walters, Enright, Clase, Stephan, Bibee, Aleman, and Herrin in that order.

Insights from the 80th Percentile Outcomes:

Just because it’s January and it’s fun to dream, let’s look at what ZiPS says the 80th percentile outcome for some Guardians hitters and pitchers would be. How does Ramirez 156 OPS+, Manzardo 141 OPS+, Kwan 133 OPS+ (notably he surpassed that last year), Fry 129 OPS+, Johnathan Rodriguez 129 OPS+, Brennan and DeLauter at 125 OPS+, Kayfus 124 OPS+, Thomas at 123 OPS+, Bo Naylor 122 OPS+, Arias 119 OPS+, Brito 114 and Carlos Santana 114 OPS+ sound?

ZiPS sees Santana’s 2024 as a bit of a mirage, projecting him for 90 OPS+ and good defense… it’s a little odd to me that the Guardians didn’t see it the same way. It makes me think that Cleveland buys Santana’s midseason swing-change and performance, and it’s hard to doubt them a lot on that. ZiPS also isn’t a Tyler Freeman fan having him at 94 OPS+ (Steamer had him at 109 wRC), with his 80th percentile at 112 OPS.

If you want to know the bullpen’s 80th percentile outcomes, please refer to the 2024 season as far as ZiPS is concerned. But, for the starters, a 2.97 ERA for Bibee, 3.07 ERA for Bieber, 3.36 for Williams and 3.47 for Cantillo would be pretty, pretty good.

Insights from the Splits:

In the decision between DeLauter and Brennan, it’s notable that DeLauter is projected for a .749 OPS vs. RHP compared to a .730 OPS for Brennan vs. RHP. Conversely, ZiPS REALLY likes Johnathan Rodriguez vs. LHP at a .797 OPS, compared to .714 for Jhonkensy Noel. So, since I do want DeLauter over Brennan but do not believe in Rodriguez over Noel, I will be ignoring the latter and embracing the former insight. For a team that seems to be in need of help vs. RHP especially, C.J. Kayfus’s projected .730 OPS against them also stands out

Insights from the Historical Comps:

Here are the most fun historical hitting comps I found:

Jose – Charlie Gehringer and Barry Larkin
Manzardo – Sid Bream and John Olerud
Rodriguez – Christian Walker
Rocchio – Mark Ellis
Fry – Steve Pearce
Santana – Kevin Millar
Cooper Ingle – Russell Martin
Angel Genao – Royce Lewis

Here are the most fun historical pitching comps I found:

Clase – Mariano Rivera
Bieber – Waite Hoyt
Ortiz – Micahel Wacha
Williams – Ray Culp
Lively – Jake Westbrook
Smith – Dave Smith
Austin Peterson – Pablo Lopez
Herrin – Andrew Chafin

Overall, ZiPS and Szymborski say the Guardians look like an 85-88 win team, just like the Twins. So, obviously, a couple timely additions either before the season or midseason or some prospect breakouts from some of the guys projected to be just above replacement level could go a long way to helping the Guardians win the Central and be positioned for a playoff run.