Yes, Chef
It’s a cold December day in Northeast Ohio – let’s ignite the cold-as-ice Hot Stove and suggest some trades the Guardians should consider in next week’s Winter Meetings!
First, be sure you check out a prior article I wrote mocking up some additional trades. Some of the more prominent names are featured there. I have focused only on starting pitching here, but there are, of course, needs in right field for the Guardians. Starting pitching is the biggest need, so that’s where I want to spend my time. I freely realize that these trades are subjective, so feel free to criticize or adjust as needed. When it comes to acquiring starting pitching, I operate under the assumption that is always going to cost more than you think. Generally speaking, I find a value I think is fair and then I add an additional piece to it assuming that’s what it would take to get a deal done.
Trade 1: Guardians trade LHP Matt Wilkinson and IF/OF Kahlil Watson to the St. Louis Cardinals for RHP Erick Fedde.
Analysis: Fedde put up 3.4 fWAR and a 3.86 FIP in 2024 and is owed about $8 million for this season and then he’s a free agent. He doesn’t strike out many guys (7.82 per 9) but gets a healthy percentage of groundballs (around 40%) and limits walks. He was pretty lucky in avoiding home runs in 2024, so I’d expect some regression (steamer sees him as more of a 4.30 FIP in 2025) but he is at the very least a good #4 starter option who threw 177 good innings last season. The Guardians give up a player who looks like a solid bet to be a #4 or #5 starter in the future and a player with some upside who looks likely to be a good MLB utility player. Personally, this is as much as I’d give up for Fedde so if a Cardinals fan reads this and scoffs, good luck elsewhere, I guess.
Trade 2: Guardians trade Juan Brito 1B/3B/RF to the Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Zack Littell
Analysis: This one is a wrench for me because I really like the potential of Juan Brito to become a solid hitter in the middle of an MLB lineup. Littell had a 3.99 SIERA and 3.88 FIP in 156 innings last year, striking out 8.12 batters per 9 and walking only 1.78 per 9. His groundball percentage was down in the mid-30’s but it’s been in the 40%’s for his career, so I think that’s something Cleveland could focus on with their excellent infielders behind him. Tampa has quite a few options for starters, so with Littell projected right now to be their longman and probably getting around $5 million in arbitration, they should be willing to trade him. He has a higher ceiling than Fedde and is three years younger. Brito is a lot to pay for a rental pitcher as Littell will be a free agent in 2026, but I think it’s likely going to cost something like that to land a pitcher whom you can reasonably see as a #3 with great infield defense behind him. Hopefully, the Guardians can pull this off with rookie level prospects instead, none of whom will become future MLB stars, I am sure!
Trade 3: Guardians trade Jaison Chourio, OF, Braylon Doughty, RHP and Angel Genao, SS to the Miami Marlins for Sandy Alcantara, RHP.
Analysis: This is the blockbuster deal of this bunch, as the Guardians would be acquiring a Cy Young winner, albeit one coming off of Tommy John surgery and due over $22 million over the next two years. However, Cleveland would also acquire a club option for 2027 at $21 million and if Alcantara returns to form, that would be incredible value. So, will the 29 year old return to his 5.9 fWAR, 2.99 FIP, 8.15/1.97 K/BB/9 form of 2022 after having a 4.03 FIP in 2023 and then getting hurt? Answering that question determines if any team will give up the kind of value that the Marlins will be looking for in this deal. I have included a LOT here and let me explain: the Marlins have no particular reason to trade Alcantara now. It’s much wiser to let him rebuild his value and revisit trading him in July. So, someone is going to have to knock their socks off to get them to move him now… which is why this trade isn’t going to happen. But, hey, if you want a cost-controlled and incredibly reasonably-priced Cy Young winner now, this is what the price looks like in my humble opinion. I wouldn’t do this deal, but I would like to see the Guardians revisit the idea in July where the cost might be slightly more reasonable (or Alcantara could look like an ace again and it will be higher). Alcantara does have a groundball rate for his career of 50% which fits quite well with Cleveland, as aforementioned.
Trade 4: Guardians trade Ralphy Velazquez, 1B/cOF to the Miami Marlins for LHP Jesus Luzardo.
Analysis: I think Luzardo is a bit of a distressed asset after some injuries and dips in his strikeout numbers in 2024 where he put up a 4.24 FIP and only struck out 7.83 guys per 9 and walked around 3 per 9, with a career groundball rate of 40%. He is under control for two more years and a team like Cleveland could easily dream of getting him back to his 10.48 K/9 rate of 2022-2023 and helping the 27 year-old better condition for a long season. Giving up Velazquez really, really hurts here, so I personally would hope maybe C.J. Kayfus and a lottery ticket would get it done instead? Again, though, I believe that acquiring starting pitching, especially pitchers still in arbitration, is going to be very expensive in trades. Please, though, let me see the Guardians get their pitching development team’s hands on Alcantara, Luzardo or Edward Cabrera. Look out.
Trade 5: Guardians trade C.J. Kayfus, 1B/cOF to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Jameson Taillon
Analysis: The Cubs owe Taillon around $35 million over the next two years, he put up a 3.92 FIP in 2024 with a 6.8/1.8 K/BB/9 and he has a 42.3% groundball rate for his career. If the Guardians somehow agree to miraculously take on this amount of money for the 33 year old, I think Kayfus is the appropriate kind of overpay to acquire a guy who is a #4 starter but will likely be in high demand because he will reliably give his team a chance to win in 160 innings plus year-in and year-out. In reality, if this deal happens, I think the Guardians would include one of their proven relievers and get the Cubs to pay some of Taillon’s salary as a part of the deal.
Bottom Line:
It’s hard to predict teams trading starting pitching in the offseason because it’s at a point where it’s impossible to have too much of it. But, it may behoove Cleveland to leverage their talented farm system and try to pry one of these arms loose from clubs who are mostly looking to rebuild in 2025 (the Cubs being the exception on this list). Rather than running the risk of missing out in free agency while being asked to pay inflated prices, getting known commodities at known amounts could be appealing to Cleveland. Any one of these players would add immense stability to the Cleveland rotation and Alcantara and Luzardo have potential as front-of-the-rotation starters here. Let’s see what happens!