Remembering to not overlook a couple of right-field candidates
As we think about the Guardians’ attempt to find a solution in right field, names like Jhonkensy Noel, Will Brennan and Chase DeLauter are obvious options. But, are we giving enough consideration to a couple of Triple-A stars in Johnny Rodriguez and George Valera?
Over the past three years, Valera has dealt with numerous injuries to his hand and wrist and, finally, last September when he tore his knee late in the season. Despite all that, Valera has put up a 106 wRC+ with a 27/13 K/BB% and a .215 ISO (on only a .298 BABIP which is a little low for Triple-A). This includes an .826 OPS vs. RHP in 2023 and an .864 OPS vs. RHP in 2024. Basically, Valera can’t hit lefties to save his life but he has consistently crushed right-handers. Valera has a bit of a groundball problem (43% compared to around 35% for fly balls), but he does help himself by pulling the ball at around 45-50% for his minor league career. He has struggled some defensively but seems to have a decent arm for right field and should be competent there defensively.
Paul Hoynes on his latest podcast mentioned that Valera, after being DFA’d by the Guardians, had offers from other teams but chose to come back to Cleveland because he wants to win a World Series here. This is, obviously, delightful to hear as a Cleveland fan. It’s also pretty astounding to hear that Valera should be able to play in Spring Training games given he had knee surgery in September. If that’s true, I’d think a good Spring would put Valera in position to be in Cleveland if he performs well by early May. The Guardians currently have a roster that skews toward lefty mashers so there is definitely a place for Valera to earn himself a place back on the 40-man, especially if Brennan continues to struggle to be an average hitter. The key is for Valera to stay healthy and demonstrate a return to some of the more prodigious power number he showed before his wrist/hand issues cropped up.
As for Johnny “Rockets”, I have been a doubter of his because of his groundball rate sitting close to 50% and his flyball rates struggling to get to 30%. That combined with a healthy K-rate and what I have observed as pretty poor defense in right field has made me a skeptic. But, I think it’s important to remember that he has put up a 137 wRC+ in Triple-A with a 27/13 K/BB just like Valera has. He’s also put up an OPS against LHP over 1.000 in that time period and still has a healthy .830 OPS vs RHP, so he doesn’t seem to be a player who would have to be platooned.
Perhaps most impressively, Rodriguez raised his in-zone whiff rate to a tolerable 82.5% last season vs. the 77% we had seen earlier. That is a big deal if he can sustain it as his inability to make high-rate zone contact is probably a fatal flaw. Interestingly enough, Valera also raised his previously alarming in-zone contact rate from 78% to 84% last year. Both players will have to build on this success to become viable big league players (MLB average in-zone contact rate is usually around 85%).
Rodriguez looks fairly traffic coney in right field to my eyes, but he has a Spring to work with the Guardians’ outfield coaches to try to fix some of that. If the team wants to lean into some pop off the bench, however, Rodriguez could fill the role that will eventually be occupied by DH-only-for-2025 David Fry. It would give Vogt and the team practice in having a limited defensive player on the bench and accommodating for him, while letting Rodriguez have opportunity to show if what he has displayed as a hitter in Columbus is real.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt Valera and Rodriguez, but there are also some good reasons to hope that both can show some signs of helping the team this Spring. I am excited to watch both players later on in Cactus league games.