And how to eat it properly
Three Guardians’ players about whom I have significant doubts have had strong starts to the 2025 season – what am I learning, as a result?
Prior to Opening Day of 2025, as an amateur baseball writer, I found myself compelled to offer my opinions on Guardians’ baseball players, inevitably putting myself in position to look bad in the eyes of reply guys on Twitter. Sadly for them, when I note a lack of desire to engage in good faith conversation, I keep them steadly on unfollowed/mute. But, I enjoy when I look dumb for a baseball opinion because it’s an opportunity to learn and grow. ESPECIALLY if it means that a player whom I doubted seems to be better than I thought. How delightful to see a person succeed at an incredibly difficult job while helping the team for which I root succeed.
Let’s take a look at what’s going on with the objects of my incredulity – Gabriel Arias, Logan Allen and Paul Sewald – and try to determine if their early season success is likely to continue to delight both me and people who want me to appear like a know-nothing about baseball.
Gabriel Arias- A 142 wRC+, xwOBA 330, BABIP .355, 29.1/7.3 K/BB%, 94th percentile in bat speed, 76th percentile in fielding run value, 73rd in baserunning run value, 23rd percentile in chase rate, 1st percentile in whiff rate.
On March 18th I wrote: “Arias is still running a 50% groundball rate and a 20% swinging strike rate. He also has repeatedly popped up on the chart of highest exit velocities each day he’s played and looked good on defense. Because I’ve been watching Arias in the big leagues and Columbus fail to overcome both his lack of lift and lack of contact issues, I do not believe he will be able to do so in the season ahead. I’m ready for Arias and the team to prove me wrong as he seems destined to be anointed [Juan Brito] debuts”
Arias is still putting up a 22.7% swinging strike rate, a 66.7&% zone-contact rate (ML average is 80-85%), and a 66.7% groundball rate. All of his issues – chasing, whiffing (especially in the zone), and lack of lifting the ball are still on clear display. So, is there any hope that he can sustain this early season success?
If Arias can build on his 7.3% walk-rate (already almost doubling his career ML walk-rate) and sustain something close to 8%, if he can sustain a hard-hit rate of 47% (by Statcast), and if his defense and baserunning remain excellent, then there is a narrow path for him to remain an above-average major league hitter while still chasing, whiffing and hitting groundballs too much. In fact, I do see some room for positive regression as his groundballl rate SHOULD go down to something closer to 50% and he should make about 10% more contact on pitches in the zone than he has in this small sample size. Of course, we should also expect pitchers to begin taking more advantage of his tendencies to expand the zone and then just blowing pitches by him in the zone when necessary if he’s behind in counts. He really needs to focus on being patient in counts and taking walks that will follow to continue to get pitches to hit so he can continue to make that hard contact that can counterbalance his lack of launch angle.
Interestingly enough, Juan Brito’s bat looks very ready at Columbus and Brayan Rocchio is faltering (in a very small sample size, of course). Could we, by June, see a situation where Rocchio gets a return trip to Columbus while Arias flips to shortstop and Brito to second base? If his range and arm remain strong at shortsotp, that could produce enough value to make Arias at even 90 wRC+ a pretty valuable player.
How Much Crow Will I Be Eating? I’ve Got a Plate Ready As Needed: I’ve Got a Platter-Sized Portion Ready As Needed
Logan Allen, 2.30 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 3.59 xERA, 5.27 SIERA, 6.32/5.17 K/BB/9, 73rd percentile in breaking ball run value, 87th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 66th percentile in groundball rate, 2nd percentile in whiff rate and 17th percentile in BB rate.
I did not write about Logan Allen during Spring Training, but I did say that I would “have preferred to find a way to keep Pedro Avila over Allen, who has the most hittable fastball I’ve ever seen.” So, put that in the preseason time capsule for Freezing Cold Takes.
To be successful in MLB, a soft-tossing lefty needs to have three things: 1. pinpoint command, 2. an elite breaking pitch, and 3. a solid mix of average offerings to keep a hitter guessing. So far, this is exactly what Logan Allen has displayed with solid command, with a slider measuring about 15% above average pairing with an average fastball, average cutter, 17% below average sinker, and a changeup that should end up around average.
The primary change Allen has displayed is adding a sinker to his pitch mix. Now, the sinker for Allen isn’t a particularly good pitch by the metrics. But, so far, it’s gotten good results. Part of this is likely hitters getting more information on the pitch, but part of it is also Allen doing what pitchers like Ben Lively and Aaron Civale do to be effective – throw enough pitches where hitters remain just slightly off in their timing while preparing for any given pitch to be thrown at any given time.
Allen isn’t going to be a major league pitcher with a 5.17 BB-rate per 9 innings. But, if we give him a bit of a mulligan on his opening 5-walk performance in San Diego, I think his walk rate probably can settle in more in the 3-4 per 9 range, which is more doable. Again, I want to see what Allen will be producing when the weather warms up. I suspect we see hitters adjust to the sinker and begin blasting off on that pitch and on his fastball, mitigating the effectiveness of his excellent slider. In that case, we’ll be hoping for Parker Messick or Doug Nikhazy to debut, or for Shane Bieber to return earlier than expected. But, for now, especially in these colder weather days, it’s great to see Allen far exceeding my expectations for him which included cannon fodder and roster-churn chum prior to Opening Day.
How Much Crow Will I Be Eating? I’m Set for a Spoonful, But We’ll See If It’s More…
Paul Sewald, 3.38 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 3.16 xERA and xFIP, 2.57 SIERA, 12.38/1.38 K/BB/9, 77th percentile in hard hit rate, 85th percentile in whiff rate, 5th percentile in fastball velo, 1st percentile in groundball rate, 2nd percentile in barrel rate.
On March 18th, I wrote: “Sewald has yet to get a groundball this spring and his swinging strike rate is down around 10%, lower than last year’s career low of 11%. I am sorry, Sewald looks exactly like the pitcher I saw last season who looked washed. It’s possible he is simply heating up, but I am concerned that he will be a home run machine this season.”
So… Paul Sewald’s fastball has been averaging 89.9 mph this season. It’s also been measuring at 124 Stuff+ (100 is average). How the heck is that possible? Well, he’s in the 92nd percentile for fastball spin rate, the 60th percentile for extension, and his fastball has about 2 inches more vertical break than other ML fastballs. Basically, the pitch does everything that you’d want a fastball to do… only about 5 miles per hour slower than you’d like it to do so.
I don’t think what Sewald is doing is sustainable. He has a 77% fly ball rate and as the weather warms up, his 11.4% Homer per Fly Ball rate for his career is going to be a problem if those numbers continue. However, his slider hasn’t gotten good results yet but it’s still measuring as a good pitch (109 Stuff+), so that should change. Most importatly, his location has been absolutely pinpoint, as demonstrated by his miniscule walk rate. I think Sewald has a good chance to walk the tightrope to be something like a 3.50 ERA pitcher who will provide solid 6th-7th innings for the Guardians in 2025, which is a little more than I expected. It’ll also be fun to watch him to do it, because seeing great hitters late on a 90 mph fastball is magical (it’s also possible that Sewald finds another couple mph on the fastball as the season progresses.
The main learning point here is that I need to remember that Spring Training numbers (even underlying figures) have almost no meaning for established, veteran players. That’s a core principle for me that I abandoned in Sewald’s case.
How Much Crow Will I Be Eating? Looking Like I Should Plan on Second Helpings
I am delighted to see three players about whom I have expressed significant doubts in Arias, Allen and Sewald succeeding. I would much rather look like I don’t know ball and have the Guardians win games than look like I’m prescient and have the Guardians struggle as they rely on players in whom I doubt. I root for everyone who wears a Guardians’ uniform to be wildly successful. I remain a skeptic on Allen and Arias, especially, and have still some significant concerns about Sewald. But, the early returns on all three have been very good for my favorite baseball team, and I am very glad. I will be rooting for their continued success while monitoring the causes for continued doubt.