A disappointing year for Big Rig
On a team short of starting pitching, Gavin Williams is a very important player for the Guardians’ future. What did we learn about him in 2024?
After pitching in two Spring Training games, Williams hurt his elbow in weighted-ball training and didn’t appear in a Guardians uniform until July 3rd. Not ideal for either the big North Carolinan hurler or for his team struggling to replace Shane Bieber and hapless Triston McKenzie. Upon return, Williams’ velocity was up on all his pitches and he added a cut fastball to his mix. Good news, right? Well, not really as his fastball value declined by 2 runs and his killer slider from 2023 was mostly ineffective. Interestingly, Williams’ K/BB per 9 increased from 2023-2024, improving from 8.89/4.06 to 9.36/3.79 and his FIP declined from 4.05 to 3.67. He allowed a .308 Batting Average on Balls in Play of .308 in 2024 as compared with a .278 BABIP in 2023. So, he was just unlucky right?
Well, not entirely. Williams’ allowed a 44% hard hit rate in 2024 as compared to a 39% rate in 2023, and his barrel rate allowed also increased by 1.5%. He allowed more hard contact and more contact in general as his contact rate allowed went up by 4.4%. Under the hood, he was unlucky in terms of his slider which was actually a better pitch in 2024 and hitters just managed to find ways to get it in play more often, but his fastball quality declined from 12 points above average in Stuff+ to 3 points below average, and his changeup quality declined from 36 points above average in Stuff+ to 34(!) points below average. However, Williams only throws his changeup 5% of the time, so, although it’s not measuring as a good pitch, it’s not dramatically impacting his outcome. It’s fastball issues, a pitch he throws over 50% of the time, that hurt Williams the most.
But, analyzing Williams’ fastball doesn’t give clear reasoning for its decline in value as his spin rates, horizontal and vertical break, and induced vertical break remained constant from 2023-2024. The primary issue for Williams’ fastball seems to be that teams were able to determine more often when they would get a fastball in the zone and made him pay for it when they did. This aligns with the 11% decline in his usage of his slider which was his best “out-pitch” in 2023. Williams held off on throwing his slider as he eased his way back from the elbow injury and it led to hitters being able to more effectively guess when his fastball would be coming and time up their swings accordingly.
When it’s all said and done, I feel fairly confident that if Williams is healthy in 2025, we should see some significant improvement in his pitching results. Adding a cutter was an excellent attempt to help keep hitters off balance in terms of hunting his fastball; he and the team should embrace this development and continue it. The big issue for Big Rig is regaining control of his slider (his command of the pitch DRAMATICALLY declined in 2024) and being confident enough to throw the pitch more often, something closer to 25% in the coming season. The Guardians will need him to throw something much closer to the 140 innings he pitched in 2023 than the 88 innings he threw in 2024, and they will need to work carefully with Carl Willis, Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges and the pitching group to ensure that his pitch mix maximizes his solid repetoire of average to above average offerings.
Williams got a brief chance to pitch in the playoffs after almost two weeks off of pitching and he was understandably rusty in the first inning, but flashed his capabilities after that, striking out four and allowing zero walks. I think, in hindsight, giving Williams the start that the team gave the clearly compromised Alex Cobb in the Detroit series would have served their chances of advancing far better. But, this is Monday Morning quarterbacking; I understand why they trusted the veteran, proven option in Cobb. Hopefully, in 2025, the training wheels will be fully off Gavin by the time a playoff berth may arrive and if he can improve on the 4.13 FIP projected for him by Steamer with an increased command of an excellent slider to get more whiffs, he should be someone we are comfortable seeing in a game 2 or game 3 of a playoff series.
Here are some highlights from Williams’ 2024 season: